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☕️ GM Munchers! I don’t know what’s worse. My portfolio dropping or hockey playoffs making my hairline worse than it already is. My wife said the former, which for her was a compliment. I’ll take what I can get.

On today’s menu:

• 🛢️ $100 Oil Is Back. Then Trump Blinked.

• 🏛️ Kevin Warsh Just Walked Into The Lion's Den

• ✈️ Spirit Airlines Flys 107%

• 💉 $UNH Crushed Earnings. Even Buffett Is Relieved.

• 👀 5 AI Stocks To Watch

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

🛢️ $100 Oil Is Back. Then Trump Blinked.

Iran skipped the peace talks, oil punched through $100 a barrel, and the market went red. Then, just as everyone braced for the ceasefire to expire tonight, Trump posted on Truth Social that he's extending the truce indefinitely. Citing Iran's government as "seriously fractured," he said the ceasefire will continue until Tehran submits a unified peace proposal.

The S&P 500 still closed lower, erasing $420 billion in market cap. Brent Crude still ripped 6.37% through triple digits. The day happened. But the story changed.

Here's what investors need to be watching the rest of the week:

• 🕊️ Iran still hasn't come to the table. The ceasefire is extended but the blockade stays in place. Tehran says it won't negotiate under the "shadow of threats." Until a delegation shows up in Islamabad, this is a pause, not a resolution.

• 🛢️ The Strait of Hormuz is the number that matters. The blockade of Iranian ports is still active. If that doesn't ease, oil stays elevated and the inflation story gets complicated fast.

• 📅 Watch the 10-Year yield Thursday. The bond market will price in the real risk here before equities catch up. That's your early warning system for the rest of the week.

The Munch Take: Trump said he wouldn't extend it. Then he extended it. The market barely flinched either way, which tells you everything. Nobody believes this is over and nobody believes it's about to get catastrophically worse. We're all just getting very comfortable living in the in-between. My wife asked me this morning if the war is still going on. I said sort of, kind of, not really. She nodded and went back to her coffee. Honestly, the most accurate take of the day.

🏛️ Kevin Warsh Just Walked Into The Lion's Den

Trump's pick to replace Jerome Powell sat in front of the Senate Banking Committee yesterday, and it was exactly as uncomfortable as it sounds.

Who Is Warsh: Kevin Warsh is a Wall Street veteran who served as a Fed governor from 2006 to 2011. His net worth has since climbed past $100 million, which is the kind of number that makes senators very interested in your opinions about conflict of interest.

The Highlights:

• Democrats pressed him on whether Trump had ever asked him to fix rates. Warsh said no. The senators looked like they'd just been told the dog ate the homework.

• Senator John Kennedy grilled him on an op-ed he wrote calling AI a disinflationary force. Warsh walked it back. Sort of. He called this "the most disruptive moment in modern economic history." So, same thing, different font.

• On his personal fortune, he said he'd convert his assets into "something like cash." Cool. Specific. Very reassuring.

Here's the real wrinkle. Senator Thom Tillis, a Republican, has already vowed to block the confirmation until the DOJ drops its investigation into Powell. And Powell himself has said he'll stay put if Warsh doesn't get the interim Chair nod.

Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota put it best: "I'm curious as to why you even wanted to do this."

The Munch Take: Markets still expect rate cuts later this year regardless of who's running the Fed. Wall Street has decided the Iran inflationary spike is fading, and UBS is already pencilling in further easing. The chair is musical. The rates are inevitable. My wife has no idea who Kevin Warsh is and her retirement account is still crushing mine.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🥈 $SI Silver shed 3.83% as oil ripped higher and news broke that Vance's Pakistan trip is on hold. The ceasefire trade is unwinding in real time.

🕵️ $META An internal memo revealed Meta is installing tracking software on US employee computers to capture workflow data for AI training. Not only can you not play solitaire at work anymore. You're actively training your replacement.

✈️ $SAVE Spirit Airlines surged 107.41% on reports the federal government might step in to support the struggling carrier, easing fears of liquidation. This is the airline's second bankruptcy in under a year.

📊 $EFX Equifax slipped 3.04% despite an earnings beat. Higher interest rates and a weak mortgage market are clouding the road ahead. Good numbers. Bad timing.

🚜 $TSCO Tractor Supply stumbled 11.69% after missing on both revenue and earnings, with same-store sales growth that was genuinely rough. Rural America is tightening its belt.

STOCK OF THE DAY

💉 $UNH Crushed Earnings. Even Buffett Is Relieved.

UnitedHealth just put up a quarter that reminded everyone why this stock exists. Revenue came in at $111.7 billion against estimates of $109.2 billion. EPS hit $7.23 versus the $6.57 Wall Street expected. Full year guidance landed at $18.25 per share, ahead of the $17.75 consensus. They also dropped a $2 billion stock buyback on top of it all.

The stock ripped to its highest price since October. Berkshire Hathaway, which bought over 5 million shares last year at around $1.6 billion, is finally looking like less of a headache for whoever is now managing Buffett's old portfolio.

📈 The Bull Case:

• Beat on revenue and EPS while raising guidance. That's the trifecta.

• $2 billion buyback signals management confidence.

• Buffett's entry price is back in play. Smart money is being vindicated.

📉 The Bear Case:

• Medical Care Ratio sits at 83.9%. Every point that creeps higher eats directly into margins.

• Medicare Advantage remains a political and regulatory minefield.

• The stock has had false dawns before. Several of them.

The Munch Take: UnitedHealth beat estimates, raised guidance, and authorized a buyback all in one shot. That's not an earnings report. That's a statement. Berkshire bought this stock when nobody wanted it, which is exactly what Buffett spent sixty years telling everyone to do.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Wednesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 👀 5 AI stocks to watch (Ad)

2. 🚀 Software stocks are climbing again.

3. 🤯 U.S. banks are carrying insane unrealized losses.

4. 🚬 The UK just approved a lifetime smoking ban.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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