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BREAKING NEWS

🇯🇵 Japan's Bond Market Is Breaking. Here’s Why You Should Care.

Japan's stock market just lost the equivalent of roughly $130 billion in a single session. At the same time, Japan's 40-year government bond yield hit 4.41%, the highest level in history. These two things are connected and both of them point to the same problem.

Here is the plain English version of what is happening.

Japan has the most debt of any developed country on earth. Its debt is over 230% of its entire economy, more than double the US ratio. For decades Japan kept interest rates near zero, which made that debt manageable. Now rates are rising and the math is getting ugly fast. As interest rates go up, Japan's debt payments get bigger. That forces the government to either borrow more or cut spending. Bond investors see this happening and demand even higher rates before they will lend. Which makes the debt payments bigger again. It is a loop that feeds on itself.

Here is why it matters for American investors specifically:

• 🇺🇸 Japanese investors hold $1.2 trillion in US Treasury bonds, more than any other foreign country on earth. As Japanese bond yields rise, it becomes more attractive to invest at home. So Japanese investors sell US Treasuries to bring money back to Japan. When they sell US Treasuries, US bond yields go up too. And when US bond yields go up, expensive tech stocks get hit.

• 💴 For decades, investors borrowed money cheaply in Japan and invested it in US stocks and bonds. This is called the carry trade and it is estimated at $1.2 trillion globally. When Japan's rates rise, that trade unwinds. Investors sell US assets to pay back their Japanese loans. That puts downward pressure on everything from the S&P 500 to US Treasury bonds simultaneously.

• 📉 When Japan's bond market crashed earlier this year, US 30-year Treasury yields surged to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis within hours. That is how fast this travels. Tokyo sneezes and New York catches a cold before the market opens.

The Munch Take: Japan is the canary in the coal mine for what happens when a country spends decades printing money and piling up debt. The bill is arriving. The question for US investors is not whether this affects them. It clearly does. The question is how fast and how hard. A slow grind higher in Japanese yields is manageable. A disorderly crash in the world's third-largest bond market is not. Keep one eye on Tokyo this week. It matters more than most people think.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

🏥 Berkshire Just Sold UnitedHealth After 9 Months. We Almost Bought It Three Times.

Let's start with the context. Berkshire bought 5 million $UNH shares in August 2025 when the stock was down 46% on the year, getting hammered by soaring medical costs, a DOJ fraud investigation, a CEO who abruptly resigned, and the fallout from the murder of its top executive. It was a classic distressed value buy. The kind of move that made Buffett legendary.

Greg Abel just sold every share nine months later at an estimated $400 million loss.

For context, Buffett's average holding period across his career is measured in decades. He held Coca-Cola for 35 years. He held American Express through multiple crises. He held Apple through a 30% drawdown without blinking. Nine months is not a Buffett hold. It is barely a lunch break by Berkshire standards.

So why sell now? The DOJ situation got significantly worse. The antitrust lawsuit targeting UnitedHealth's entire vertical structure entered the discovery phase in mid-2026, with federal investigators zeroing in on "patient steering," the practice of funneling insurance members toward Optum-owned clinics regardless of cost or patient preference. A forced breakup of Optum would destroy the entire integrated business model that makes $UNH valuable. Abel apparently decided the legal risk was not worth holding through.

📈 The Bull Case:

• Q1 2026 earnings beat expectations. The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook and announced $2 billion in share buybacks. The core business is still generating enormous cash.

• Evercore ISI, RBC Capital, and Bernstein all maintained Outperform ratings with price targets between $400 and $444. Most analysts think the chaos is already priced in.

• A total court-ordered breakup remains a low-probability outcome. The stock is pricing in a worst case that probably does not materialize.

📉 The Bear Case:

• $UNH guided for its first revenue decline in a decade in 2026, losing over 3 million members and facing Medicare rate pressure that is effectively a cut in real terms.

• The DOJ investigation is now in full discovery. That process alone takes years and the headline risk never goes away.

• When the smartest capital allocator in the room sells at a $400 million loss after nine months, that is information worth sitting with.

The Munch Take: We have almost pulled the trigger on $UNH three separate times over the past year. Each time something else happened and we held off. The DOJ case. The CEO departure. The guidance cut. Each time felt like an overreaction and each time there was another shoe to drop. Berkshire buying in August felt like the all-clear signal. Berkshire selling in March feels like something else entirely. We are staying out until the legal picture clarifies. The business is real. The liability is also real. And nine months is not how long Buffett holds stocks he likes.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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