2:59 PM Friday. Make this trade.

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BREAKING NEWS

🇯🇵 Japan Is Having A Crisis. Here's Why You Should Care.

You likely don’t own Japanese Yen. You probably cannot find Japan's central bank on a map. You still need to read this.

Japan just jumped into the currency market and bought its own money to stop it from collapsing. The Yen had been sliding toward 160 per dollar, a level Japan considers a red line that triggers intervention. At the same time, Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit its highest level in nearly 30 years. Both of these things happening at once is a big deal. Here is why it matters to you.

For decades Japan kept its interest rates near zero. The lowest in the world. That meant investors could borrow money in Japan for almost free, take that cash, and invest it into US stocks and bonds to make a profit. This is called the carry trade. It is one of the biggest and most important financial strategies on earth.

Japanese investors became among the most aggressive buyers of US Treasury bonds, chasing yields they simply could not find at home. That cheap Japanese money quietly helped keep US interest rates lower for everyone.

Now Japan's own rates are rising. Here is what that means in plain English:

• 💴 When Japan's rates go up, investors start pulling their money back home to invest in Japanese bonds instead. That means less money flowing into US stocks and bonds. Less demand for US assets means prices can drop.

• 📈 Japan carries the highest government debt load of any developed country on earth, exceeding 200% of its entire economy. Rising rates mean Japan's debt becomes much more expensive to manage. A country drowning in debt, paying higher interest is a slow-moving crisis.

• 🌍 Markets built on cheap Japanese funding may need to reprice across multiple asset classes simultaneously. Not in one dramatic crash. In a slow grind that is very hard to protect yourself from.

The Munch Take: Japan's bond market has been the quiet engine underneath global finance for 30 years. Nobody talked about it because nothing ever changed. Now things are changing. Fast. This is not a story about the Yen. It is a story about cheap money disappearing from the global system and what happens to everything that was built on top of it. My wife asked why I was reading about Japan at midnight. I told her the global financial system might be quietly shifting. She told me to come to bed. She is probably right. But this one is worth watching.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

🔍 Cathie Wood Just Bought Google. Here's Why That's Interesting.

Cathie Wood is one of the most famous investors in the world. She runs ARK Invest, a fund that bets on companies it believes will change the future. AI, robots, gene editing, crypto. Big swings. Loud opinions. A massive following.

But her track record is complicated.

ARK Innovation soared 153% in 2020 and Wood became a celebrity investor almost overnight. Then 2021 happened. The fund dropped 23% while the S&P 500 gained 29%. Morningstar named ARK the worst "wealth destroyer" family of funds over the 10 years ending in 2023, losing $7.1 billion in shareholder value. The flagship fund is still down 46% from its all-time high.

So when Wood buys something, people pay attention. Not always because she is right. Sometimes, because she has been spectacularly wrong.

This week, she bought 40,656 shares of $GOOGL. The timing was perfect. Google then reported the best earnings quarter in years and the stock added $300 billion in market cap in a single day. Up 7.5%.

Here is why Google ripped:

• ☁️ Google Cloud grew 63% from a year ago. AI tools are now the single biggest driver of that growth for the first time ever.

• 💰 Net income came in at $62.57 billion, up 81% from last year. EPS of $5.11 nearly doubled the $2.63 Wall Street expected.

• 🔍 Google Search held firm despite fears that ChatGPT and AI tools were stealing its users. The advertising business is still untouchable.

The Munch Take: Cathie Wood has been wrong enough times that people stopped listening. Then she buys Google two days before it reports the best quarter in years and gains $300 billion in market cap overnight. That is either brilliant research or the luckiest trade of the year. Either way, the position is up. My wife heard the name Cathie Wood and asked if she was the one "who lost everyone's money." I said it is more complicated than that. She said "sounds like a yes." She is not entirely wrong.

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