Dear Reader,

While some AI stocks continue to hit new highs, the people who BUILT AI are selling their shares as fast as they legally can.

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has 42 consecutive sell transactions. Not a single buy.

• Peter Thiel has liquidated his entire Nvidia position.

• SoftBank has dumped $5.8 billion.

• And Michael Burry – the man made famous by the Big Short movie for predicting the housing crash – is now betting against AI stocks.

What do they know that you don’t?

My name is Alexander Green. I’ve been a professional investor for 40 years.

And I’m writing today to warn you: the insiders are only HALF right.

I just recorded a private presentation explaining what's really going on – and why it means the biggest AI profits are likely still ahead… and potentially 10X bigger. They just won’t come from where most people expect.

This situation is moving quickly…

Don’t miss what could be the most profitable presentation of my career.

Good investing,

Alexander Green
Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club

BREAKING NEWS

🏛️ US Debt Just Passed The Size Of The Entire Economy

Here's an ugly number to sit with. US federal debt has officially crossed 100% of GDP. In plain English, the government now owes more than the entire country earns in a year. The debt is about $31.27 trillion. The whole economy is about $31.22 trillion. The last time the two numbers looked like this was right after World War II.

Back then, the country grew its way out fast. Soldiers came home, factories retooled, and the economy boomed past the debt. This time is different. We're borrowing heavily during good years, not to win a war, and the Congressional Budget Office projects the ratio climbs to 120% by 2036.

Think about what that really means. Every year the government spends far more than it collects in taxes, so it borrows the difference. That borrowed money isn't free. The government pays interest on it, just like you do on a credit card. And the pile is now so big that interest alone eats up a massive chunk of the budget. The scary part isn't today's number. It's the direction. History is full of powerful countries that spent more than they earned for decades and swore it would be fine, right up until it very suddenly wasn't. Some of the most respected investors alive like Ray Dalio have spent years warning that a country with a spending problem eventually runs out of road.

And Washington isn't exactly slamming the brakes. Just this morning, some lawmakers like Elizabeth Warren pushed to remove the debt ceiling entirely, the one flimsy speed bump that's supposed to force a conversation about borrowing. That sounds convenient and gets votes but it also means taking the last limit off the credit card and throwing away the statement.

Why This Is A Big Deal For Stocks:

• 📈 More debt can mean higher interest rates. The more the government borrows, the more bonds it has to sell, and it often has to offer higher yields to find enough buyers.

• 💰 Higher yields compete with stocks. When a safe government bond pays around 5%, some investors pull money out of stocks to grab it. Higher rates also make it pricier for companies to borrow, which slows profits and growth.

• 🚀 Growth stocks feel it most. High-flying tech and AI names are priced on profits far in the future, and higher rates make those future dollars worth less today.

• Special Report: "This ticker will be headline news come September 16" (from Brownstone Research)

The Munch Take: A debt milestone like this won't crash the market overnight. Nothing suddenly breaks the day debt passes GDP. But it quietly makes money more expensive for everyone, shaping interest rates, inflation, and ultimately your portfolio. The mistake is treating it as either a disaster or a non-event. It's neither. It's a slow-moving headwind, and the real danger isn't this year's number, it's a country that keeps promising to fix the problem later while removing the few limits it has left. I told my wife this is one reason our mortgage probably isn’t getting cheaper anytime soon. She said, "So the national debt is our problem now." Turns out that's a pretty good summary.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

💻 Wall Street Asked for Proof & Microsoft Delivered

Remember when Microsoft ( $MSFT ( ▼ 0.71% ) ) was down 23% and everyone wondered if the AI leader had lost a step? Wednesday's earnings answered that. The stock surged 9% after hours on a quarter that beat on basically every line.

Revenue hit $90 billion against the $87.6 billion expected, and earnings came in at $4.74 per share versus the $4.24 Wall Street wanted. But the headline number was Azure, Microsoft's cloud business, which grew 43% and crossed $100 billion in annual revenue for the first time ever. That's the AI demand everyone keeps talking about, showing up as actual dollars.

🐂 The Bull Case:

• ☁️ AI is paying off: Azure accelerated from 40% to 43% growth, and the order backlog jumped 84% to $678 billion. That's demand booked years out.

• 📊 Copilot is landing: Microsoft's AI assistant for Word, Excel, Teams, and other Office apps now has over 30 million paid seats, with net adds more than doubling in one quarter.

• 💰 Still looks cheap to some: Even after the pop, several valuation models peg it well below fair value. They see this as a growth story that's far from over. The stock is still down just over 4% YTD.

🐻 The Bear Case:

• 🏗️ The spending is enormous: Capital expenditures hit $41 billion in one quarter, up 69%, and that keeps climbing. That's a massive bill to justify every quarter.

• 🎢 The bar just got higher: A blockbuster quarter means investors will expect another one next time, leaving less room for disappointment.

• ⚡ Demand outpaces capacity: Microsoft literally can't build data centers fast enough, limiting how many AI services it can deliver today. Until more capacity comes online, growth could be constrained by infrastructure, not demand.

The Munch Take: The biggest question in the market this year has been whether all this AI spending would ever turn into real money. Microsoft just answered with a $100 billion cloud business growing 43% a year. That's no longer a story about hype. It's a story about customers writing very large checks. Of course, spending $41 billion in a single quarter means expectations are now sky-high and the market won't keep rewarding AI promises forever. It will demand AI profits. But so far, Microsoft is delivering both and has bounced back from a 20% drop in a single day.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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