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BREAKING NEWS

💻 The Man Who Called The Housing Crash Just Bought Microsoft.

When Michael Burry buys something, people pay attention.

The "Big Short" investor just disclosed a new long position in $MSFT. He also added to positions in PayPal and Adobe. At the same time, he bought put options against chips and the Nasdaq. Translation: he thinks software is cheap and the hardware trade is overcrowded.

He is not wrong about the cheap part. $MSFT is down 22% from its record high and currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26x. Its five-year average is 34x. That is a real discount for one of the best businesses on the planet.

The same day Burry disclosed his bet, for the first time ever, Microsoft announced a voluntary retirement offer for up to 7% of its U.S. workforce. Running leaner. I like it.

📈 The Bull Case:

• Azure revenue grew at least 39% year over year in each of the first two quarters of fiscal 2026. The company has a $625 billion order backlog.

• Burry buying at these levels is a loud signal from someone who has been right before

• Earnings drop on April 29. One strong print could reprice this stock fast.

• Trading at a 5-year valuation low while AI demand is accelerating

📉 The Bear Case:

• OpenAI cut its compute spending forecast from $1.4 trillion to $600 billion through 2030. That could overstate Microsoft's backlog significantly.

• The voluntary retirement program means costs are still too high

• The software sector got smoked recently. Sentiment is ugly right now.

• Burry also bought puts on the broader market. He is not exactly all-in on optimism.

The Munch Take: Burry called the 2008 housing collapse while everyone else was still popping champagne. When he steps into a beaten-up stock, it is worth writing down. $MSFT is cheaper than it has been in years and the AI business is genuinely growing. April 29 earnings are the real test. My wife heard the name "Michael Burry" and asked if he was the guy from the movie. I said yes. She said he looked stressed in it. I said he made about a billion dollars. She went quiet for a second and said "maybe we should buy some." First time she has ever said that unprompted. We are watching April 29 very closely.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

💳 Amex Beat Earnings. The Stock Fell Anyway. Classic.

$AXP just posted a clean quarter and the market punished it. Welcome to 2026.

EPS came in at $4.28, beating estimates of $4.02. Revenue hit $18.9 billion, ahead of the $18.6 billion forecast. Net income grew 15% and revenue grew 11% year over year. Full-year guidance held firm. By every measure, a solid report. The stock still dropped 4%.

Yes, Warren Buffett owns it. Berkshire Hathaway holds 22% of American Express, making him the single largest shareholder by a wide margin. He has held it for decades and has shown zero interest in selling.

📈 The Bull Case:

• Beat on earnings and revenue. Full year guidance maintained.

• Millennial and Gen-Z cardholders are now a majority of new account acquisitions and are spending more while maintaining strong credit profiles. The next generation is buying in.

• Buffett at 22% is not a small vote of confidence. That is a declaration.

• Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating after earnings with a $360 price target.

• 75% of revenue comes from spending and fees, not interest. That makes it more resilient than most financial stocks in a downturn.

📉 The Bear Case:

• Stock is down 14.5% for the year despite consistently beating earnings. The market does not care right now.

• Premium consumers spending heavily is great until they stop. A recession flips this story fast.

• The broader financial sector is under pressure and $AXP is not immune to the tape.

• Geopolitical uncertainty is weighing on international travel and spending, two things Amex lives on.

The Munch Take: This is a genuinely great business run by competent people with Warren Buffett sitting on 22% of the float. It beat earnings. It held guidance. The stock dropped anyway because the market is currently in a mood. That is not a business problem. That is a price problem. Those are different things. My wife's cousin once asked me to split a $12 appetizer and still flashes a Platinum Card at every restaurant we go to. The man has a net worth of a used Honda and an airport lounge membership. There are millions of him. That is the bull case.

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