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☕️ GM Munchers! I was supposed to golf this weekend but my buddy cancelled on me last minute. Sounds a lot like the ceasefire agreement and just as tragic.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 The Ceasefire Is Dead

• ⏰ Bitcoin Is Sitting On A Cliff Edge

• 🐊 Moderna & Crocs Make Headlines

• 💻 Michael Burry Just Went Long On Microsoft

• 😬 A Gold “Death Cross” Just Formed

Friday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📉 The Ceasefire Is Dead. Here’s What You Need To Know.

Iran struck a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. The US struck Iran back on Friday. Iran then launched drone attacks on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain on Saturday night. By Sunday morning, Trump was threatening to "militarily complete the job" if Iran didn't stop. The ceasefire that was signed less than two weeks ago is now hanging by a thread.

This is the summer of convenient timing. The Iran conflict has a very specific schedule. Monday through Friday, things seem manageable. Markets are open. Everyone stays calm. Then the closing bell rings on Friday and all hell breaks loose. Almost every single weekend since this war started, something has exploded before Monday morning. This is now the third time in three weeks that American warplanes have struck similar targets in Iran. You would think that America hosting the World Cup this summer might soften the mood globally. It has not softened anything.

It’s another light economic calendar this week but here’s what to watch:

• 📊 ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday. This tells us how America's factories are doing. With the ceasefire now looking shaky and oil prices volatile after a weekend of strikes, any sign of slowing manufacturing activity will spook an already nervous market. Watch for it to move oil and energy stocks fast.

• 💼 Jobs report on Thursday. It comes a day early because markets are closed Friday for the Fourth of July holiday. Economists expect around 100,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. Anything weaker than that and rate cut bets will move fast.

• 🏦 Kevin Warsh speaks Wednesday. The newly confirmed Fed Chair makes his first major public appearance at a European Central Bank symposium in Sintra, Portugal. Every word he says will be dissected. Every pause will be analyzed. Every sentence will move a market somewhere.

The Munch Take: Iran is hitting ships. The US is hitting Iran. Bahrain and Kuwait got hit over the weekend. The ceasefire is technically still in place but to be honest, nobody really knows what’s going on. If the market crashes at the open, the market still cares about the war and those are the only headlines that matter this week. But if there’s no major vomit? It signals the market has officially shifted its focus to other matters.

⏰ Bitcoin Is Sitting On A Cliff Edge. This Week Matters.

Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week for the first time since late 2024, sitting roughly 53% below its all-time high of $126,272 reached last October. That's a painful number. But here's the thing. Historically, this is exactly where things get interesting.

Here's why $60,000 matters so much right now:

• 📊 More than half of all Bitcoin is underwater. Over 10 million coins are now held at an unrealized loss, meaning more people are losing money on Bitcoin than making it. Every single time this has happened in Bitcoin's history, it has marked a major bottom. Not a guarantee. But a very strong signal that the panic sellers are done and the holders aren't going anywhere.

• 💰 The $60,000 level is not just a round number. There is over $1.2 billion in put options sitting at that exact strike price. That's a line in the sand that a lot of very serious money is watching very closely. A clean break below and it gets ugly fast.

• 🛒 We bought last week. We'll buy more if it drops lower. The historical setup here is too strong to ignore entirely.

Now for the storyline rattling the Bitcoin world. Think of Michael Saylor as Bitcoin's biggest cheerleader. His company, Strategy, holds 847,000 Bitcoin, making it the largest corporate Bitcoin holder on earth. He's spent years telling anyone who'd listen that Bitcoin only goes up and that his company would never sell. Rosen Law Firm just opened a securities investigation into Strategy, claiming the company may have provided materially misleading information to investors. Strategy's shares have fallen 78% over the past year and its preferred stock has dropped 25% below the $100 par value it was supposed to hold near. When the world's biggest Bitcoin holder is being investigated by lawyers, it's not nothing.

The Munch Take: Bitcoin is sitting at a level that has historically marked major bottoms. The man who owns more of it than anyone else on earth is now being investigated by lawyers. Both of those things are true this week. My wife asked me if we should be worried about our Bitcoin. I said we bought it knowing this could happen. She said that's not the same as not being worried. True, but as Charlie Munger said, you shouldn’t invest if you can’t stomach a 50% drawdown.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

💉 $MRNA Moderna surged 12.80% after unveiling its first program that trains your own immune cells to fight autoimmune diseases without needing a transplant. Science is cool when it works.

🤖 $NOW $APP $WDAY ServiceNow, AppLovin, and Workday jumped 9.85%, 6.99%, and 9.18% respectively as Wall Street rotated back into AI software names. The AI trade is never dead. It just takes lots of coffee breaks.

🐊 $CROX Crocs climbed 7.47% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock, calling its valuation attractive. The ugliest shoe in history continues to be one of the more interesting trades on the board.

🧠 $MU $SNDK $WDC Micron slipped 6.69% while SanDisk and Western Digital fell 10.46% and 13.17% respectively. Nobody panic. This is just profit-taking after one of the greatest chip rallies of all-time. The AI storage story hasn't changed. Wallets just needed a breather.

📦 $FDXF FedEx Freight dropped 2.93% despite beating revenue expectations in its very first earnings report as a standalone public company. Beat the number. Still went down. Wall Street is a tough crowd on debut night.

STOCK OF THE DAY

💻 Michael Burry Just Went Long On Microsoft. Yes, That Michael Burry.

We know. We've mentioned Burry a lot lately. But the man has been making moves faster than we can write about them. First he shorted Palantir and won. Then he covered half of it. Now he's flipped to the long side and bought call options on $MSFT Microsoft, betting the stock will more than double by December 2028.

Microsoft's stock is trading around $350 right now and Burry thinks it's going to be worth a lot more in a couple of years. Instead of buying the stock outright, he bought call options. If you’re not familiar, think of it like this. Instead of buying a whole pizza, you pay a small fee just to reserve the right to buy it later at today's price. If the pizza gets way more expensive, you win big. If it doesn't, you only lose the small fee you paid upfront.

In other words, instead of just buying the stock he bought options so that there’s less money at risk and potentially, way more reward. He now needs Microsoft to hit $700 before December 2028 to win big.

📈 The Bull Case:

• 🤖 Microsoft's AI business is growing 123% year over year and its cloud platform Azure grew 40% last quarter. The business is doing great right now.

• 💰 Microsoft already has $627 billion in deals locked in with customers. A quarter of that turns into real revenue in the next 12 months.

• 📊 Wall Street thinks the stock should be at $562, which is 51% higher than today. Burry and Wall Street agree on something for once.

📉 The Bear Case:

• 💸 Microsoft spent $31.9 billion in a single quarter building AI infrastructure. That's an enormous bill and it's not slowing down.

• 🎰 If Microsoft doesn't hit $700 before December 2028, Burry's options expire worthless. He loses everything he paid. High conviction. High risk.

• 📉 The stock is already down 22% this year and 31% from its all-time high. The trend is not your friend right now.

The Munch Take: Burry shorted Palantir and won. Now he's betting Microsoft doubles in two and a half years. The man is never short of conviction. What’s interesting about this play is that Burry actually thinks Microsoft is undervalued which is rare. He’s known for shorting stocks that he thinks are way overpriced. This year, Microsoft is the worst-performing stock in the Magnificent 7. If you like buying stocks at a discount, keep that in mind…

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Monday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🤑 The Biggest Growth Stock of All Time? (Ad)

2. 😬 A gold “death cross” just formed.

3. 🍊 The price of orange juice has crashed 75%.

4. 🇺🇲 Americans have how much credit card debt?

5. 😭 This was the worst crypto buy of all-time.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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