The Trades Wall Street Keeps For Itself

Here's what nobody tells regular investors. The pros run most of their money on algorithms, institutions up to 75% of it. Individuals? Under 5%. Not because it was hidden. Because there was never a dime in showing you.

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☕️ GM Munchers! I tried talking stocks with my wife last night. She looked up from her knitting, said "that sounds like a you problem," and went back to making something that'll actually hold its value.

On today’s menu:

• 🐻 Michael Burry Says Palantir Is Worth… One Dollar

• 🏰 A Senator Peeked Inside Fort Knox

• 🏦 The Private Equity Giants Went On A Tear

• 🤯 Trump Bought Bitcoin?

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

🐻 Michael Burry Says Palantir Is Worth… One Dollar

Michael Burry is back, and this time his target is Palantir ($PLTR). On Monday, the "Big Short" investor revealed a fresh bet against the AI darling and made a jaw-dropping claim: he thinks Palantir's true long-term value is under $1 per share. Yesterday? The stock closed around $175. So Burry is essentially calling for a 99% collapse. That’s not a dip. That’s an extinction event.

First, what does Palantir even do? Fair question, because almost nobody can explain it cleanly. Palantir builds software that takes gigantic, messy piles of data and turns them into something useful. Its biggest customer is the US government, defense agencies, intelligence, the military, and increasingly big corporations using it for AI. Think of it as a super-powered engine for making sense of information. Secretive, powerful, and very hard to value.

Why Burry Thinks It Crashes: His beef isn't with the business, it's with the price. Here's his case:

• 🏷️ The valuation is absurd: Palantir trades around 150 times earnings and nearly 70 times sales. For comparison, a "normal" strong company trades around 20-30 times earnings. Investors are paying for a decade of perfection right now.

• 📚 Hidden commitments: Burry flagged that Palantir's off-balance-sheet infrastructure deals (rent-like promises that don't show up as normal debt) more than tripled this year. Sound familiar? It's the same footnote trick we covered with Big Tech's trillion-dollar data-center leases.

• 💧 Constant dilution: The company hands out huge piles of new stock to employees, which quietly shrinks what each existing share is worth.

The Reality Check: Here's the thing even Burry's fans admit. The business is booming. Revenue just grew 93% in a single quarter, and US commercial sales jumped 149%. A company growing that fast is many things, but "worth zero" almost certainly isn't one of them. Wall Street analysts, and even a Senator who bought the stock in May, have done very well betting against Burry here so far.

The Munch Take: Burry does two things at once here. First, he's got skin in the game: he just bought fresh puts betting Palantir falls, so this isn't idle talk, it's his money. His direction is defensible, Palantir at 150 times earnings has almost no room for error, and if growth even slows, that premium can collapse fast. But his destination, one dollar, is almost certainly wrong, because that requires a company doubling its revenue every year to become worthless. So don't use this as "sell everything," and don't dismiss him as a crank. Use it as a reminder that a great company and a safe stock aren't the same thing at 150x. Burry's been early and wrong for years, including that "Sell" tweet before the market ripped. But "early and wrong" and "eventually right" can be the same story with an expensive stock, you just never know which chapter you're in. My wife asked if Palantir's going to a dollar. I said no, but it's priced like nothing can ever go wrong. She asked which is riskier, believing the doomer or the hype. I said that's the whole game, and honestly, you don't want to fully believe either guy.

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STORY OF THE DAY

🏰 A Senator Peeked Inside Fort Knox. The Gold's There (He Says).

One of America's oldest conspiracy theories got a plot update this week. Senator Rand Paul toured the Fort Knox gold vault on Monday and announced the gold is all there, roughly 147 million ounces. "It is impressive," he said.

First, what is Fort Knox? It's the US Bullion Depository in Kentucky, a fortress-like Army-guarded vault holding a little over half of America's entire gold reserve. It's one of the most secure buildings on Earth, and almost nobody ever gets inside. That secrecy is exactly why a decades-old conspiracy theory took root: with the doors always shut, skeptics (including Elon Musk last year) started asking whether the gold was even still in there.

Why This Connects To Gold's Rally: The timing is perfect. Gold has been ripping to record highs, trading around $4,370 an ounce. Here's the wild part: on the government's own books, Fort Knox gold is still valued at $42.22 an ounce, a price frozen since 1973. So the hoard is worth about $6 billion on paper, but around $644 billion at today's real price. That gap is Paul's whole point about how much value the dollar has lost over the decades.

Now, Should We Just Take His Word? We like Rand Paul, but let's be honest about what actually happened here.

• 👀 A tour is not an audit: Paul looked at the gold. He didn't count and test all 147 million ounces. Even he is still calling for a real independent audit, which tells you he knows a walk-through isn't proof.

• 📆 It's been over 50 years: The last genuinely complete physical audit of Fort Knox was essentially back in 1974. Half a century with no full, independent verification is a legitimately strange thing for the world's most famous gold vault.

• 🔒 Trust us isn't a number: A politician saying "yep, looks like a lot of gold" is reassurance, not accounting. Assaying (testing that bars are real gold, not gold-plated tungsten) takes experts and time, not a photo op.

The Munch Take: This is a fun one, so let's hold two thoughts at once. Thought one: there's no actual evidence the gold isn't there, and the conspiracy is probably just that, a conspiracy. Thought two: "a senator glanced at it" is a genuinely low bar for confirming hundreds of billions of dollars in national reserves, and the fact that we haven't had a full, transparent audit since the 1970s is a fair thing to raise an eyebrow at. Both can be true. The deeper takeaway isn't really about whether the bars are missing, it's what Paul was actually pointing at: that same gold the government values at $42 an ounce is worth over $4,300 in the real world, and that 100x gap is the story of what's happened to the dollar. That's not a conspiracy, that's just math, and it's the same math driving gold to record highs right now. My wife asked if the gold is really all there. I said probably, but nobody's fully counted it since before we were born. She said that sounds like my approach to the shed, everyone assumes there's something valuable in there, but no one's brave enough to actually check.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🏦 The Private Equity Giants Went On A Tear Blackstone popped 3.89%, Apollo climbed 6.26%, and KKR gained 6.88% on plans to mobilize more than $500 billion for building AI infrastructure. When the smart money committing a trillion-plus to data centers needs a partner to fund it, these are the firms writing the checks, and collecting the fees.

🚀 $SPCX SpaceX slipped 3.93% on profit-taking after its wild rally. After a 30% pop in a few days, some folks cashing in their chips is the least surprising thing in the world.

📱 $APP AppLovin dropped 5.99% after a Bank of America downgrade over slowing growth. In this market, "still growing, just not as fast" is enough to get you sold.

💊 $HIMS Hims & Hers fell 3.97% after trimming the top end of its profit outlook and swinging to a quarterly loss. The market gave the telehealth darling a reality check.

📊 $NIQ NIQ Global Intelligence soared 41.95% after crushing both earnings and revenue estimates. When a lesser-known name beats this big, the stock doesn't walk higher, it teleports.

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TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Wednesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 😏 Buffett missed tech before. Would he miss this? (Ad)

2. 🤯 Trump bought Bitcoin?

3. 🇫🇷 France’s bond market is going crazy.

4. 🇨🇦 The Canadian Dollar just hit a 2-month high.

5. 🥊 Trump Is Not Happy With NYC

🍪 Munchy Memes

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