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☕️ GM Traders! The market's like my morning bedhead—wildly unpredictable and refusing to cooperate despite my best efforts with premium Japanese styling products. Speaking of Japan...

On today’s menu:

• 🍎📦🏠 Big Tech's Earnings Circus

• 😯 Why This NFP (Shockingly) Might Not Matter

• 🇯🇵 Japan's 0.1% Problem

• 😍 Fear Is Leaving The Market

• 💰️ Microsoft Becomes The World’s Most Valuable Company

Yesterday’s numbers:

STOCKS

🍎📦🏠 Big Tech's Earnings Circus

If your portfolio feels like it's riding a mechanical bull today, blame the tech earnings trifecta that just dropped. Let's dissect the carnage and opportunity.

🍎 APPLE: BEATS, BUT NERVOUS ABOUT WHAT’S NEXT

Apple delivered $95.4B revenue (vs $94.66B expected) and $1.65 EPS (beating $1.63 estimates). iPhone sales crushed it at $46.84B, handily beating $45.84B forecasts.

The buzzkill: Tim Cook warned it's "very difficult" to predict tariff impacts beyond June, with $900M in extra costs expected this quarter. They're scrambling suppliers between China, Vietnam, and India faster than traders can update their spreadsheets.

📉 The market's response?

Shares tumbled 4% after hours, reacting to uncertainty like a cat to a cucumber. Services revenue ($26.65B vs $26.7B expected) missed by a whisker, proving even Apple's golden goose occasionally lays a dud.

📦 AMAZON: PROFITS UP, BUT GUIDANCE SPOOKS

Amazon crushed Q1 with $155.67B revenue (beating $155.04B expectations) and $1.59 EPS (demolishing $1.36 forecasts). AWS pulled in $29.3B, slightly missing targets but still impressive.

The stock still dropped 2% after hours because... guidance.

Classic market overreaction? Perhaps.

Q2 operating income guidance of $13-17.5B fell short of $17.64B consensus, with management muttering anxiously about "tariffs and trade policies." With Trump's 145% China tariffs looming, Amazon's import-heavy business model suddenly looks as precarious as a Jenga tower in an earthquake.

🏠 AIRBNB: TRAVEL COOLS, STOCK DROPS

Airbnb squeaked by with $2.27B revenue (vs $2.26B expected) and matched $0.24 EPS estimates, but Q2 guidance landed like a lead balloon: $2.99-$3.05B versus the $3.04B Wall Street wanted.

The culprit?

Weaker cross-border travel, especially from Canada to the U.S. (though Canadian visits to Mexico jumped 27% – apparently tequila beats maple syrup).

Shares dropped 5% faster than a bad host's rating.

💡 TRADER’S COMPASS

The through-line here isn't subtle: solid recent performance overshadowed by tariff terror.

For traders navigating Q2, technical analysis alone won't cut it – you'll need geopolitical instincts sharper than a hedge fund manager's suit. The smart money is hedging against tariff impacts while keeping powder dry for the inevitable overreactions.

Remember: In markets driven by fear, the real opportunity often hides behind the headlines.

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MARKETS

😯 Why This NFP (Shockingly) Might Not Matter

Depending when you read this, the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report is either just hours away or already on your screen.

For those living under a trading rock, NFP drops the first Friday of every month — the Super Bowl of market data. It’s the key snapshot of U.S. jobs, giving both traders and the Fed a read on the economy’s pulse.

This month, expectations are:
✅ Unemployment steady at 4.2%
✅ Payrolls adding ~124K jobs

But here’s why some think this print won’t move the needle:

→ If the report’s strong, markets may shrug — because the data reflects a pre-tariff economy.
→ If the report’s weak, traders might chalk it up as a one-off fluke.

Honestly, markets have been a snoozefest this week, so we’re hoping NFP brings some fireworks. Either way, keep those stop losses tight — no one wants to start the weekend bleeding.

FOREX

💴 Japan's Jobless Surprise: The Tiny Number That Could Move Big Money

Remember when 0.1% meant nothing? In forex, it's the difference between champagne and cup noodles.

Japan's unemployment hit 2.5% for March (seasonally adjusted), up from February's 2.4%. In JPY trading, that tiny uptick is like someone juggling nitroglycerin near your trading setup.

The economists missed again. Shocker.

The Job Market Paradox

Plot twist: Despite higher unemployment, Japan's job-to-applicant ratio increased to 1.26 from 1.24.

Translation: 126 job openings for every 100 job seekers.

More jobs AND more unemployment? Pure economics – where contradiction is the national sport. This signals structural mismatches rather than economic weakness. Like having premium ingredients but no recipe.

JPY Trading Playbook

For bleary-eyed USD/JPY chart watchers, here's the deal:

1. BoJ Pressure Relief: Higher unemployment could keep the Bank of Japan's foot off the tightening pedal. Trader's version: Yen likely stays weaker, making USD/JPY longs potentially juicier than forbidden midnight snacks.

2. Risk-On Momentum: Current USD/JPY sentiment suggests traders are in adventure mode. Dollar strength strategies have runway, but keep your exit strategy ready like a samurai's sword.

The Bottom Line 🧵 

Japan's job market is throwing mixed signals like a malfunctioning traffic light. The 2.5% unemployment rate alongside that 1.26 job ratio has seasoned traders scratching their heads.

Smart money is laser-focused on the Bank of Japan's next move. Blip or trend? Your yen positions are hanging in the balance.

PROP FIRMS

🤑 Friday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 😍 For the first time since February, the Fear & Greed index is now in neutral.

2. 💰️ Microsoft is now the world’s most valuable company at $3.2 trillion.

3. 🥊 USA Vs China, Bitcoin edition. Who has more? See this.

4. 🍔 The McRecession Is Here

5. 🧵 What you need to know about the Russia-Ukraine deal.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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