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☕️ GM Munchers! My wife told me last night that she feels like I don't listen to her. I tried to respond but the power play was expiring and I needed to focus.

On today’s menu:

• 💸 $166 Billion Just Started Moving Back. Sort Of.

• 🍎 Apple Has a New CEO

• 🩺 Why This Stock Is Up 100% In 7 Weeks

• ✈️ American Airlines Said No. The Stock Said Ouch.

• 📈 Stocks VS Homes. What’s The Better Investment?

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

💸 $166 Billion Just Started Moving Back. Sort Of.

The Supreme Court ruled Trump's emergency tariff authority unconstitutional back in February. U.S. Customs is now owed $166 billion in refunds to American importers. As of yesterday, companies can file claims through a new government portal called CAPE. Walmart. Target. Every retailer who got crushed importing goods from China. They are all in line.

The catch is the word "start." After claims are approved, refunds could take 60 to 90 days to actually land. And there is a bigger problem. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last week that Section 301 tariffs could be back in place at the previous level by July. The government giveth. The government immediately starteth planning to taketh away.

📈 The Bull Case:

• $WMT and $TGT are due the largest chunks of this money. Cash coming back directly boosts margins and free cash flow.

• Retailers who import heavily from China get a one-time balance sheet repair they did not have priced in.

• Sentiment alone could lift beaten-down consumer discretionary names.

📉 The Bear Case:

• Trade lawyers are warning of bureaucratic hurdles and the possibility of a last-minute administration appeal. This money is not guaranteed to arrive fast or at all.

• Section 301 tariffs could cancel out the refunds entirely by summer.

• Retailers face legal exposure too. If they passed tariff costs to customers, they could now get sued for keeping the refunds.

The Munch Take: This is the government writing a $166 billion check with one hand while building a new tariff regime with the other. The refund is real. The timeline is not. And the fine print is terrifying. I was excited when Starbucks gave my wife a $6 refund after messing up her order. I can’t imagine how these companies are feeling.

🍎 Apple Has a New CEO. Tim Cook Is Leaving on a $4 Trillion Note.

Tim Cook spent 15 years at the helm of Apple without launching a single revolutionary product category after the iPad, and somehow turned the company into a $4 trillion machine anyway. He optimized what Steve Jobs built, turned services into a money printer, and mastered the supply chain like nobody in corporate history. Not flashy. Not visionary in the Jobs sense. Just relentlessly, historically effective.

John Ternus, 50, takes over as CEO on September 1 while Cook shifts to executive chairman. Ternus has worked on Apple's hardware team since 2001 and was instrumental in product lines including the iPhone and AirPods. He is an engineer's engineer stepping into the biggest chair in tech, and the board voted unanimously to put him there.

The market shrugged. $AAPL barely moved after hours, which is either a sign of confidence in the transition or a sign that nobody thinks much changes. Probably both.

The real question is what Ternus actually does with the role. Cook's Apple was a supply chain and services story. Ternus is a hardware guy, which either means Apple Intelligence finally gets serious silicon behind it, or we get another incremental iPhone cycle with a new color.

The Munch Take: Tim Cook never made anything cool. He made everything cheaper, faster, and more profitable. My wife has bought four iPhones on his watch without once asking me if we could afford it. That is brand loyalty. That is also Tim Cook's entire legacy. Respect.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🩺 $HIMS ripped back above $30 yesterday and is now up 100% in seven weeks, fueled by rumors that the FDA is looking to ease restrictions on peptides. The stock is performing exactly like the performance-enhancing products it sells. Beautiful.

💾 $SNDK SanDisk got its invite to the NASDAQ 100 yesterday, and after a 235% gain so far this year, nobody in that room had the nerve to object. When the stock does that, the index finds a seat for you.

🛒 $GOOGL is back on the acquisition trail, reportedly in talks with $MRVL to co-develop two new versions of its AI chips. Marvell climbed over 4% on the news. Google spending money on AI infrastructure is about as surprising as the sun rising, but the market rewards it every single time anyway.

🚢 $RCL and $NCLH had a rough Monday, dropping 1.12% and 3.48% respectively as fears grew that the Strait of Hormuz stays closed longer than anyone hoped. Turns out a cruise through the Persian Gulf is a harder sell when there is a naval blockade in the way. The itinerary needs work.

STOCK OF THE DAY

✈️ American Airlines Said No. The Stock Said Ouch.

United CEO Scott Kirby quietly pitched a merger with American to the Trump administration back in February. Word leaked. $AAL stock ripped on the speculation. Then on Friday, after markets closed, American issued a statement that could not have been colder: "American Airlines is not engaged with or interested in any discussions regarding a merger with United Airlines."

The stock did not like that news. Everyone who bought the rumour is now regretting it.

The deal was never going to happen anyway. American and United together would control roughly 40% of domestic capacity and a Cornell antitrust professor called it dead on arrival. The Biden administration blocked two major airline mergers and won both times. The runway here was always shorter than it looked.

📈 The Bull Case:

• Merger speculation alone proved the market sees value in $AAL assets.

• A weakened $AAL could still be acquired at a discount by a smaller player.

• Consolidation chatter industrywide could lift the whole sector.

📉 The Bear Case:

• American posted net income of just $111 million on $54.6 billion in revenue last year. United did $3.35 billion on similar sales.That gap is a problem with no merger lifeline coming.

• High fuel costs are eating the whole industry alive right now.

• American goes back to being American. Alone.

The Munch Take: United tried to help the struggling kid in class and the struggling kid said no. Bold strategy. American's fundamentals haven't changed. The merger hype was the only interesting thing happening here. Now that's gone. My wife once refused to fly American because of the legroom. She was right then, too.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Tuesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. ✅ 5 energy stocks to watch (Ad)

2. 📈 Stocks versus homes. What’s the better investment?

3. 🤯 The FBI Director is suing The Atlantic for $250 million.

4. 🚀 There’s a crazy short squeeze happening with this stock.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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