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📉 Big Layoffs
Pip Munch
February 27, 2026
One famous Stanford economist says “[This is] the biggest change
ever… bigger than electricity… bigger than the steam engine.”
Now, according to two legendary forecasters, three immense forces are converging to trigger America’s New 1776 Moment.
The only time this has ever happened was 250 years ago.
But now it’s happening again and it’s about to unleash the greatest transfer of wealth in history… creating and destroying immense fortunes.
☕️ GM Munchers! Made it to Friday somehow. My wife asked why I've been "unusually quiet this week." I explained that when your portfolio drops 4% in three days, silence is cheaper than therapy. She responded with her own silence, which I've learned is significantly more expensive. Different asset classes, same downside risk.
On today’s menu:
📉 Nvidia Crushes Earnings, Gets Punished Anyway
🍩 Krispy Kreme’s Big Day
❌ Huge Tech Layoffs
🍕 Papa John's Collapse
💰 Netflix Gets Paid $2.8 Billion to NOT Buy Something
Thursday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,908 | -0.54% |
Nasdaq | 22,878 | -1.18% |
Dow Jones | 49,499 | +0.03% |
Bitcoin | $67,474 | -0.71% |
BREAKING NEWS
📉 Nvidia Crushes Earnings, Gets Punished Anyway
Two straight green days was apparently all the market could handle before yanking our hearts out yesterday. Nvidia posted $68.1 billion in quarterly revenue—absolutely obliterating expectations—and the market rewarded them by tanking the stock 5% and wiping out $240 billion in market cap.
Why the punishment? Because expectations are now so absurdly high that crushing earnings isn't enough anymore. Nvidia's went from +4% in pre-market to -5.5% by close because Wall Street collectively decided "yeah, but what about next quarter?"
The Hidden Story: While Nvidia was getting massacred, software stocks actually had a decent day. Salesforce climbed 4% after announcing $50 billion in buybacks, proving that throwing cash at shareholders can occasionally work when AI apocalypse fears take a coffee break.
Oil Collapse: Crude dropped as low as $63.60/barrel on reports that the US and Iran are holding "make or break" indirect talks about Iran's nuclear program. If they actually reach a deal, oil could drop further, and geopolitical risk evaporates. If talks collapse, we're back to $70+ oil and war premium pricing.
The Munch Take: Nvidia posted nearly perfect earnings and got destroyed anyway. This is "priced for perfection" fatigue in action. The bar's so high that it’s almost impossible for companies to clear it.
🍩 Krispy Kreme: When Closing Stores Makes Your Stock Moon
In a sea of negative news, here's something delightful: Krispy Kreme's stock absolutely launched 27.76% yesterday after reporting earnings. Yes, the donut company. No, we're not making this up.
What Happened: Revenue fell 2.9% to $392.4 million, which sounds terrible until you realize management deliberately closed 1,400 underperforming locations and ended an unprofitable partnership with McDonald's. By trimming the dead weight, profitability skyrocketed—adjusted earnings came in at 9 cents per share, crushing Wall Street's expectation of just 3 cents.
The Bull Case (Why It Could Keep Going Up):
They're letting other people own and run the stores instead of doing it themselves. This costs way less money.
Online ordering is booming—22.5% of their US sales now come from their app and website.
They made $27.9 million in actual cash this quarter, which they can use to pay back the money they owe.
The Bear Case (Why It Could Crash):
They owe $1.9 billion. That's a massive pile of debt—basically they owe nearly 7 times what they make in a year.
Donuts are a luxury, not a necessity. When people's budgets get tight, expensive donuts get cut first.
They're still not profitable using real accounting rules—the "profits" they report use adjusted numbers that make things look better than they actually are.
What Would Buffett Say? He'd love the brand power and "sweet treat" moat, but would immediately pass due to the massive debt burden and reliance on adjusted earnings. Straight to the "Too Hard" pile.
The Munch Take: Krispy Kreme proved that sometimes addition by subtraction actually works. Closing bad stores, cutting bad partnerships, and focusing on profitability sent the stock vertical. Novel concept.
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STOCKS
🍕 Papa John's Collapse: The Fast Food Canary in the Coal Mine
Papa John’s is closing 300 underperforming restaurants by the end of 2027 and laying off 7% of their workforce. This isn't just about pizza—it's a flashing red warning sign that the average US consumer is financially exhausted.
The Facts:
Q4 earnings missed expectations ($498.1M vs. $525.3M expected)
North American same-store sales dropped 2%
Management admitted customers are pulling back hard on food delivery spending
The Economic Signal: When household budgets get tight, people don't stop buying groceries—they stop paying $15-$20 for delivered pizza on Friday nights. This is the "discretionary wall" hitting in real-time.
They Aren't Alone:
Pizza Hut: Closing 250 locations in the first half of 2026
McDonald's: Warned that lower-to-middle-income customers are abandoning their restaurants globally
The Munch Take: This is the K-shaped recovery playing out in brutal clarity. Corporations at the top are fine. The consumer at the bottom is breaking. Fast food chains are the canary in the coal mine—and the canary just face-planted.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
💻️ $EBAY eBay announced 800 job cuts. I'm genuinely shocked they have 800 employees—what are they all doing, personally watching me bid on Gretzky rookie cards? The stock climbed 3% because apparently unemployment is bullish for margins.
🤯 $CRWV CoreWeave beat revenue projections, growing 110% to $1.57 billion while somehow losing 89 cents per share. The stock tanked after-hours because burning money at scale isn't actually a business model.
❌ $XYZ Block (Jack Dorsey's company) axed 4,000 employees—nearly half their workforce. The market rewarded this financial bloodbath by rocketing the stock 20%. When you're down 76% over five years, desperate measures apparently work.
🖼️ $GOOGL Google dropped Nano Banana 2, updating their viral AI image generator. I'll be testing it today while aggressively avoiding actual work.
🦉 $DUOL Duolingo face-planted 20% after-hours as the market realized AI can replace language learning with a single prompt. Turns out building a defensible moat is harder than me learning German.
😂 $PYPL PayPal remembered its true calling: crashing. Acquisition rumors with Stripe got nuked yesterday, sending the stock down 3.75%. Hope is expensive in 2026.
STOCKS
💰 Netflix Gets Paid $2.8 Billion to NOT Buy Something
Netflix just pulled off the ultimate power move: walking away from Warner Bros. Discovery and collecting a $2.8 billion breakup fee for their trouble. The stock ripped 10% on the news.
The Triple Win:
Zero New Debt: Avoided $50-60 billion in catastrophic leverage
Dodged the Government: No DOJ antitrust nightmare
Free Cash: $2.8 billion for literally doing nothing
Paramount Skydance raised their bid to $31/share so Netflix folded their hand, and shareholders threw a party. Nothing says "strategic brilliance" like getting paid billions of dollars to walk away from a deal you probably didn't want anyway.
The Munch Take: Sometimes the best business decision is the one you don't make.
🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
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