GM Lark Traders! This is Lark Digest, the only newsletter that can make market trends as thrilling as your favourite Netflix binge.

Mr.Lark

On today’s menu:

• Why Bitcoin Could Hit $500,000 In 15 Months🤑 

• Will Roaring Kitty Become A Billionaire? 😺 

🤑 $500,000 Bitcoin In 15 Months!?

A famous billionaire just explained why he thinks Bitcoin could hit $500,000 in 15 months.

That billionaire is Chamath Palihapitiya, worth $1.2B.

So that means, in the Lark World, he’s got legendary status.

And when money talks, we listen.

So, how could Bitcoin possibly 7x in just over a year?

1/ HALVING 101 ➗ 

A Bitcoin halving happens every four years, and we just had the fourth one in April.

What is a halving?

Here’s ChatGPT explaining it to a 10-year-old.

Many thought that the price of Bitcoin would skyrocket once the halving came.

But since April, Bitcoin hasn’t really moved much.

So how the heck is it going to hit $500,000 in just 15 months?

2/ HOW WE’LL HIT $500,000 😍 

What happens to Bitcoin months after the halving?

Chamath looked at how the price changed post-halving across different timeframes.

What did Bitcoin do 3 months after the previous halvings? Or 6 months, 12 months, etc.

And he discovered some insane numbers.

It turns out the majority of the returns come 12 to 18 months after the halving takes place.

First-Halving Returns

• 12 Months After Halving = 87.09x

• 18 Months After Halving = 45.52x

Second-Halving Returns

• 12 Months After Halving = 4.87x

• 18 Months After Halving = 27.92x

Third-Halving Returns

• 12 Months After Halving = 6.51x

• 18 Months After Halving = 7.8x

Over a 10-year period, these returns would be insane. But we’re talking about 12 to 18 months! 🤯 

So, how do we get to the $500,000 number?

If you take the average returns of Cycle 2 and 3, based on Bitcoin’s current price, we would see the following:

• Bitcoin Price In 12 months = $362,997

• Bitcoin Price In 18 months = $497,499

For all you optimists out there, if you include Cycle 1 in your calculations, Bitcoin will be worth $1.14 million in 18 months.

No, that’s not a typo.

No, it’s also not financial advice.

3/ WILL COUNTRIES ADOPT BITCOIN? 🤔 

Chamath says it’s only a matter of time until more countries adopt Bitcoin.

Many won’t. The US likely won’t.

But some, like El Salvador, have already begun adopting it.

But that doesn’t mean they will ditch their own currency.

Chamath believes that countries will have two currencies:

1. Their local currency for daily transactions.

2. Bitcoin, for large transactions.

When saving for a big purchase, like a house, people would hold their money in Bitcoin to preserve it’s value.

And then, when it’s time to buy groceries, they would do so in their local currency.

At Lark, we’re all for this. We don’t shy away from our Bitcoin Bullishness.

With only 21 million Bitcoins created, I think we’re just getting started.

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😺 How Roaring Kitty Could Become A Billionaire

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, Roaring Kitty needs no introduction.

But as a refresher, Keith Gill bet $53,000 on GameStop 5 years ago, and today, it is worth over $289 million.

After being in the shadows for several years, out of nowhere, he’s returned.

Why?

Nobody knows. But it could be to try and hit Billionaire Status.

How’s he going to do that?

📈 5,000,000 SHARES & 120,000 CALL OPTIONS

Roaring Kitty is still all in.

He still has a massive position in GameStop and is not afraid to hold it.

How big is it?

On Monday, GameStop rose 21%, meaning in just a single day, Keith made (on paper) $79 million.

Yeah, it’s big.

But the question is, how could he get to billionaire status?

Here’s how:

• His 120,000 call options expire on June 21 with a strike price of $20.

• That means if the stock closes above $20 on June 21, he could exercise his options, buying 12 million shares at $20 a pop.

• This would give him a total of 17 million shares and make him the 4th largest shareholder.

• At the current price of $28/share, his position would be worth $476 million (only halfway to billionaire status).

• To get there, the price would need to reach its recent peak (May 14) of $64.83.

• He’d then be worth $1.1 BILLION. Insane.

❓️THE TAKEAWAY

We, along with the entire internet, love this story.

Keith just comes across as a regular guy who found an opportunity and has gone all-in.

And clearly, he’s got b**ls of steel.

We’ll keep you posted on how this unfolds, but if he does become a billionaire, hands down, this would have to be the coolest finance story of all time.

Well done, Mr.Kitty.

☕️ Pre-Market Fuel

1. A new stock exchange is launching? BlackRock and Citadel are teaming up to compete with the NYSE.

2. The Bank of Canada just cut interest rates. This could signal to banks around the world that an easing cycle has begun.

🍪 Digestible Memes

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