- Pip Munch
- Posts
- 📉 Bad Jobs, Dovish Fed, Microsoft Bleeds
📉 Bad Jobs, Dovish Fed, Microsoft Bleeds
Pip Munch
December 04, 2025
The Debt Crisis Has Begun. America’s $37 trillion time bomb just detonated – and the shockwave could rip through your stocks and retirement…
☕️ GM Munchers! I told my wife I'm "hedging my positions" but she thinks that means I'm finally trimming the bushes in the yard.
On today’s menu:
📉 Bad Jobs, Dovish Fed, Microsoft Bleeds
🇯🇵 Japan Just Broke the Bond Market
👖 American Eagle Soars 15%
😬 Is Russia Preparing For War?
🤑 This ETF Is Seeing Massive Inflows
Yesterday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,849 | +0.30% |
Nasdaq | 23,454 | +0.17% |
Dow Jones | 47,882 | +0.86% |
Bitcoin | $93,980 | +2.87% |
BREAKING NEWS
📈 Bad News Is Good News
Stocks rallied yesterday after a jobs report that would normally send economists into therapy. What happened?
ADP reported that private payrolls surprisingly declined by 32,000 in November. Economists were expecting a 40,000 increase. So we missed by 72,000 jobs. Normally, that's terrifying news that suggests the economy is cracking.
But this is 2025, where bad news is good news and nothing makes sense anymore.
Why Markets Loved This:
Weak jobs = Fed cuts rates faster = cheap money = stocks go up.
Markets are now pricing in roughly an 94% chance of a rate cut next Wednesday, up from mid-November odds. Traders are literally betting that job losses will force the Fed to slash rates at their last meeting of the year.
Translation? The market is hinged on the Fed cutting, and bad economic data just gives Powell permission to do exactly that.
The Munch Take:
We're officially in the phase where investors cheer job losses because it means cheaper borrowing costs. It's twisted, but it's working. Expect volatility if next week's official jobs data contradicts this weakness—but for now, risk assets are celebrating economic pain.
🏛️ Trump's Fed Chair Pick Is a Rate-Cutting Machine
Trump effectively announced that Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed Chair in 2026, and Kalshi odds immediately shot to 85%.
Why This Matters:
Hassett is a known dove on monetary policy. He's publicly advocated for rapid and deeper interest rate cuts, criticizing Jerome Powell's "conservative approach". He wants cuts as large as 50 basis points instead of the Fed's typical 25 bps moves.
Markets view this as a dovish shift that could lower borrowing costs, boost risk assets like crypto. I mean, let's be real—Trump's been screaming that Powell is too slow to cut rates. If this is his guy, expect aggressive easing in 2026.
The Munch Take: Rate-cutting euphoria incoming. This is bullish for growth stocks, crypto, and anything leveraged. Powell's era of "gradual normalization" is about to get bulldozed by someone who thinks 50 bps cuts are totally normal. Buckle up.
💻 Microsoft's AI Hype Meets Reality (And Reality Hurts)
Microsoft dropped over 2% yesterday after reports surfaced that their AI product sales are missing growth targets. Multiple sales teams missed goals for Azure Foundry—Microsoft's AI enterprise platform—in the last fiscal year.
The Details:
Less than a fifth of salespeople met the sales growth target of 50%. In another unit, the quota was set to double sales, but most missed it so badly that Microsoft dropped the quota to 50%.
The company pushed back, saying the report "inaccurately combined concepts of growth and quotas," but the stock still tanked because the market is finally asking the question we raised yesterday: Where are the actual sales?
Other AI-adjacent stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron Technology also fell in sympathy. The market is starting to separate "winners from losers" in the AI trade, and companies that can't show real revenue growth are getting punished.
The Munch Take: We literally said this yesterday—the AI race is coming down to actual sales, not hopium. Microsoft is learning that "we're investing in AI" doesn't cut it anymore. Investors want revenue, not promises. If you're holding AI stocks, make sure they're printing money, not just burning it on data centers.
BROUGHT TO YOU BY
Get Paid Even In Drawdown. Every Month.
Thinking about your first prop firm challenge? Don't do it without a safety net.
Lark Funding 3.0 just changed the game:
🔄 Buy 1, Get 2 Tries: Flunk the first one? The second one is on the house.
💸 Get Paid: Earn up to $1,000/month salary plus your split.
📉 7% Max Drawdown: The most breathing room in the industry.
🚫 No Consistency Rules: Trade how you want, when you want.
It’s the smartest way to get funded in 2025.
COMMODITIES
🇯🇵 Japan Just Broke the Bond Market (And Nobody's Talking About It)
Japan's doing something that should be physically impossible: printing $135 billion in stimulus while simultaneously raising interest rates. Their 20-year bond yield just hit 2.92%—the highest since 1998. The 30-year yield surged to a record 3.43%.
Let me repeat that: Japan is printing money and raising rates at the same time. Something is fundamentally broken.
Why This Actually Matters (Yes, Even Though Bonds Are Boring):
The Bank of Japan openly flagged they'll weigh rate hikes at the December meeting.
If they actually follow through, the famous Yen carry trade—where traders borrow cheap Yen to buy higher-yielding assets—suddenly becomes way less attractive. That creates risks of violent short squeezes in Yen positioning if people scramble to unwind.
Worse? This is killing the Yen's decades-long reputation as a safe-haven currency. Historically, when markets panicked, everyone flooded into Yen. That's changing fast as Japan's policy becomes increasingly unpredictable.
What Traders Should Watch:
BOJ's December communication on rate hike timing
Japanese money flowing out of foreign bonds
Yen carry trade unwinds (watch for violent JPY short squeezes)
Risk assets getting hammered if global funding costs spike
The Munch Take: Japan's trying to have its cake and eat it too—stimulus and rate hikes don't mix. If the BOJ actually hikes in December, expect global market chaos. The carry trade that's funded half the risk-on rally could unravel fast.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
$AEO American Eagle absolutely ripped 15% yesterday after revenue climbed 6% and they lifted their full-year forecast. But let's be honest—everybody should be sending Sydney Sweeney a thank-you card for that viral campaign. Sometimes the best investment strategy is hiring someone the internet is obsessed with.
$CRM Salesforce beat earnings and raised revenue projections, rallying 2% after-hours. The stock's been getting demolished all year—down almost 30%—so this is less "victorious comeback" and more "please stop the bleeding." Baby steps.
$TU Telus is hitting pause on dividend increases but expects free cash flow to grow. Their current yield is an absolutely ridiculous 9.2%, yet the stock is somehow still down 5.5% YTD. That's what happens when the market thinks your dividend might not be sustainable—high yield becomes high risk.
$META Facebook just poached Alan Dye, Apple's design executive, which is massive news in Silicon Valley. This signals Zuck is dead serious about designing beautiful hardware instead of whatever the Metaverse avatars were supposed to be. We can only imagine the signing bonus—probably enough to buy a small island.
Anthropic is reportedly planning to go public in 2026 and it's expected to be one of the largest IPOs in history. Their current funding round has them valued at over $300 billion. For context, that's more than most countries' GDP. AI hype isn't slowing down anytime soon.
🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
What do you think of today's edition? |
Share Pip Munch
Chances are you have some trading friends. Why don’t you be a pal, share Pip Munch and earn some goodies for it?
You currently have 0 referrals, only 1 away from receiving The Trading Plan That Helped Me Pass 4 $100,000 FTMO Challenges.
Or copy and paste this link to others: https://pipmunch.com/subscribe?ref=PLACEHOLDER