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- 📉 BREAKING: Is War About To Start?
📉 BREAKING: Is War About To Start?
Pip Munch
February 19, 2026
Tired of trading your small account? The game has changed, and you no longer need to trade your own money. You need prop firms.
☕️ GM Munchers! Tensions are rising in the Middle East but the market doesn't care. Same vibe as my wife asking "Did you hear anything I just said?" while I'm staring at oil futures thinking "Oh absolutely, I completely agree with you about... the thing you said." Strategic denial in action.
On today’s menu:
📉 War Drums in the Middle East
❌ Fed Minutes Drop
🧵 Meta, Moody’s & Wingstop
😬 Recession Watch: Not Looking Great
🇷🇺 Russia Wants To Make a Deal With The US
Yesterday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,881 | +0.56% |
Nasdaq | 22,753 | +0.78% |
Dow Jones | 49,662 | +0.26% |
Bitcoin | $66,900 | -0.90% |
BREAKING NEWS
📉War Drums in the Middle East
Just while I was sipping my 4th coffee yesterday avoiding work, my news feed was filled with photos of US military aircraft flying overseas to the Middle East.
Yup, prediction markets just hit 65% odds that the US strikes Iran before March 31st. That's not a vague threat, that's Vegas money saying it's happening. Oil immediately rallied 4%, gold spiked, and defence stocks started doing victory laps.
What's Actually Happening: Vice President JD Vance confirmed nuclear talks in Geneva collapsed. Meanwhile, Axios reports the US armada now includes 2 aircraft carriers, 12 warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and 150+ cargo flights moving weapons to the Middle East.
The Market Math If War Breaks Out:
Oil Shock: Iran borders the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's oil supply flows daily. If that gets blocked, crude could rocket past $70/barrel. Airlines, cruise lines, and shipping companies could start hurting immediately.
Flight to Safety: Gold spikes to all-time highs, the US Dollar strengthens, and Treasuries see massive buying as investors dump risk assets.
Defence Stocks Rally: Lockheed Martin, RTX, and General Dynamics would surge as military spending accelerates.
The Munch Take: Markets climbed yesterday despite the war drums, which tells you investors are still pricing in the threat of war, not the reality. If bombs actually drop, expect oil and gold to go vertical while the broader market takes a hit. Defence stocks are the only clear hedge here.
🚫 Fed Minutes Drop: The "No Rate Cuts For You" Edition
The Fed released minutes from their January meeting yesterday, and Wall Street immediately realized the era of easy money isn't coming back anytime soon.
The Headline: The Fed thinks the economy is "solid" (upgraded from "moderate"), the labour market has stabilized, and they need to see inflation fall much further before they'll even consider cutting rates.
The Internal War: The minutes revealed a deeply fractured committee:
The "Cut Now" Camp: Two Fed Governors actually dissented at the meeting, voting for an immediate rate cut because they fear the Fed is being too reactive.
The "Hold Steady" Camp: Most officials want to leave rates exactly where they are until inflation cracks.
The "Rate Hike" Shock: Several officials supported changing the Fed's language to a "two-sided" statement, warning that if inflation stays hot, the Fed's next move might be a rate hike, not a cut.
Market Reaction: Traders immediately priced out almost any chance of a March rate cut. Odds of the Fed holding steady skyrocketed to over 90%.
The Munch Take: The Fed is trapped like me on a Sunday when my buddies ask me to go golfing, but it’s supposed to be “family day.” They can't cut rates to help the struggling labour market without risking more inflation (especially with oil prices surging due to Iran tensions). Speaking of the labour market…
Three Nobel Prize Winners expose this once-in-a-generation wealth shift:
AMERICA’S NEXT 1776 MOMENT
IS COMING ON OUR 250th ANNIVERSARY
“It could trigger the greatest transfer of wealth in American history”
ECONOMY
📊 Recession Watch: 1 in 4 Unemployed Americans Stuck in Limbo
Turns out it’s not just your lazy nephew who can’t find a job. Polymarket is pricing in a 24% chance of recession before the end of 2026. That might not sound high, but here's the data point that should terrify you: 1 in 4 unemployed Americans has been looking for work for more than 6 months.
What's Happening: We're in what economists call a "Low Hire, Low Fire" environment. Companies aren't doing mass layoffs (the headline unemployment rate is 4.3%), but they've completely frozen hiring. If you lose your job, good luck finding a new one.
Why This Matters: When someone is unemployed for 1-2 months, they survive on savings. When they're unemployed for 6+ months, their savings evaporate, they max out credit cards, stop paying auto loans, and ruthlessly cut spending. If 25% of the unemployed population hits this wall, it drags down the entire consumer economy.
The Market Split: The S&P 500 sits near all-time highs because Big Tech is spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure. But beneath that surface, the average consumer is exhausted. This explains why Mattel crashed 27% and General Mills warned shoppers are stressed—people buy necessities, not toys.
The Winners: Discount retailers like Walmart and Costco are about to feast as the middle class trades down.
The Munch Take: The stock market and the real economy are living on different planets. We're buying the dip if this drops, but long-term unemployment is a flashing red warning light that can't be ignored.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
🥇 Gold/Silver Both metals went full safe-haven mode as war tensions escalated. Gold climbed back above $5,000/oz and silver cracked $78/oz. When geopolitical chess turns into actual military deployment, investors flee to shiny rocks faster than my trading account flees profitability.
👨⚖️ $META Zuckerberg testified yesterday in social media's "Big Tobacco" moment, claiming increasing engagement on Instagram isn't a company goal. That's like a casino saying they don't want you to gamble. Nobody's buying it—literally. The stock's down almost 6% over the last 5 days as the market calls his bluff.
📈 $MCO Moody's apparently woke up in a good mood. The stock climbed 5.5% after crushing earnings and revenue expectations while forecasting strong growth for 2026. Turns out rating everyone else's debt is a profitable business model.
🐔 $WING Wingstop soared 11% on a surprise earnings beat. Apparently everyone stress-eating their way through seasonal depression is fantastic for the bottom line. Financial therapy served with ranch dressing.
💻️ $PANW Cybersecurity firm Palo Alto crashed 8% as AI-will-replace-software-companies panic continues spreading through Wall Street like a virus that ironically needs better security.
✅ $NVDA Nvidia's CEO announced he's preparing chips "the world has never seen before." The stock climbed 1.5%.
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🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
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