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☕️ GM Munchers! This is Pip Munch, the trading newsletter that keeps you more prepared than a trader with 3 stop losses and a backup plan for their backup plan.

On today’s menu:

• Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire: Will the Markets Care? 🤔 

• Black Friday Is Almost Here! ⏰ 

• This Bitcoin Stock Is Having A Total Meltdown 📉

• Should You Risk More Than 1% Per Trade? 📊 

Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire: Will the Markets Care? 🚨 

Yesterday, big news broke: Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a permanent ceasefire, with fighting officially set to end at 4:00 AM local time today.

President Biden announced the deal, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu gave it his stamp of approval.

Normally, a peace deal of this magnitude would send markets into rally mode. But here’s the kicker: the reaction so far has been… pretty meh.

Let’s break down why the markets didn’t budge—and whether the move is still lurking around the corner.

1️⃣ Markets Shrugged (For Now) 🤷‍♂️

Here’s the thing: The stock market is already on fire.

• The S&P 500 just hit its 52nd record high of the year.

• It’s gained over $10 trillion in value in 2024 alone.

In a year where everything is already mooning, a ceasefire might just feel like another cherry on an already overloaded sundae.

It’s either priced in, or the real move is still brewing under the surface.

2️⃣ Typically, This Is Risk-On Territory 🌞

In a normal world, news like this would supercharge risk sentiment:

• Stocks: Higher 📈 

• Crypto: Higher 📈 

• Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD): Higher 📈 

But here’s the catch—these assets are already flying high. How much more room is there to go?

• The S&P 500 is at all-time highs.

• Bitcoin was teasing $100K like it’s waiting for the perfect moment to propose.

• Commodity currencies? Riding the wave of market euphoria.

It’s like everyone’s been at the party for hours, and we’re wondering if there’s still room on the dance floor.

3️⃣ The "Unwind" Play Could Be Next 🌀

Here’s a curveball for you: Instead of markets shooting higher, we could see an unwinding of risk.

What’s that?

Think of it like a market exhale. Similar to what happened after Trump’s election when Bitcoin and the Dollar rallied as fears about unclear crypto regulation eased, traders might start to unwind their positions.

• Translation: Assets that should benefit from the ceasefire might take a minute to move.

• Keep an eye on the AUD, NZD, and CAD paired against safe havens like the USD or JPY. If the unwind starts, these setups could be golden.

The Bottom Line 💬

Right now, the markets are playing it cool, but don’t let the lack of immediate reaction fool you.

Big geopolitical events like this often take time to filter through, and when they do, the moves can be worth catching.

Stay nimble, watch for signs of an unwinding, and remember—the next big opportunity might be hiding in plain sight.

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This Bitcoin Stock Is Having A Total Meltdown 📉 

This stock has made the greatest comeback in the history of stocks, and we need to talk about it.

1️⃣ MicroStrategy in 30 Seconds

Here’s the TL;DR:

• MicroStrategy, a company that spent decades flying under the radar, pivoted in 2020 when founder Michael Saylor decided Bitcoin was the future.

• With conviction that would make most traders blush, he bet the entire company on BTC. We’re talking $22 billion spent on Bitcoin—all in.

I’m not joking. This is historic stuff.

2️⃣ The Rise and Fall

Last Wednesday, MicroStrategy hit an all-time high of $473/share, making it the most-traded stock in the world for the day—yes, even beating out tech giants like Apple and Nvidia.

Fast forward a few days, and the stock tanked 25%. Yesterday alone? Down a brutal 16%.

What happened?

• The rally was driven by Bitcoin euphoria. BTC teasing $100K had traders piling into anything remotely connected.

• The sell-off? Classic profit-taking. When something goes parabolic, people cash out.

• Bitcoin dropping. It went from teasing $100K to dropping as low as $91K.

As Buffett once said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” 

While I massively respect Saylor’s conviction, we all know a lot of this meteoric rise was fueled by FOMO.

And its fall?

A harsh reminder of how quickly markets can humble you.

3️⃣ Lessons for Traders

Now, let’s extract some actionable tips from this saga. Because the moves in MicroStrategy aren’t just a spectacle—they’re a mirror reflecting the psychology of every market participant.

Lesson #1: Conviction Can Be a Double-Edged Sword

Michael Saylor’s all-in bet on Bitcoin is a masterclass in conviction. But as traders, we need to balance conviction with flexibility.

• My takeaway: Never bet the entire farm on one trade or idea. If you’ve ever maxed out your credit card to go all-in on a single trade like I have, you’ve learned this lesson the hard way.

Lesson #2: Know When the Hype Is Too Hot

When everyone’s piling into an asset, that’s when you need to pause and take a deep breath.

MicroStrategy’s rally was a classic case of greed driving the bus—and the crash was inevitable.

• My takeaway: We need to always watch for signs of overcrowded trades. When sentiment gets too frothy, it’s often time to either tighten ours stops or consider fading the move.

Lesson #3: Volatility Is Opportunity

MicroStrategy’s moves are insane, but they’re also a reminder that volatility creates opportunities—for those prepared to adapt.

• My takeaway: Be nimble. These kinds of swings are great for short-term plays, but only if you have clear risk management in place.

4️⃣ How It Connects to Your Trading

The MicroStrategy saga isn’t just about stocks or Bitcoin. It’s a reflection of market sentiment and psychology, two factors that drive every trade we take.

• When Bitcoin is flying high, risk-on sentiment spills over into other markets. Think commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD).

• When profit-taking kicks in, safe-havens like the USD and JPY regain strength.

As a trader, it’s your job to read the room. The same greed and fear driving MicroStrategy’s moves are present in every chart you analyze.

Now, let’s go munch on some pips,
Mr.Pip

☕️ Pre-Market Fuel

1. Is Microsoft going to buy Bitcoin? More and more companies are adopting it…

2. Should you risk more than 1% per trade? I don’t think so.

3. Warren Buffett is holding more cash than ever. Does he know something we don’t?

🍪 Munchy Memes

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