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📉 BREAKING: Tariffs Are Illegal
Pip Munch
February 23, 2026
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☕️ GM Munchers! Cracked a beer at 8 AM on Sunday to watch the gold medal hockey game. My wife gave me the same look the Fed gives inflation data - disappointed but not surprised. Let's hope this week's markets are as thrilling as that game and significantly less damaging to my liver.
On today’s menu:
📉 Trump vs. The Supreme Court
🛢️ Iran Tensions: 60% Strike Odds, Oil Above $71
📅 Nvidia, Home Improvement, & Inflation
🤑 The Best Returning Assets Over The Last 5 Years
🤔 Is Microsoft a Good Stock To Buy Right Now?
Friday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,909 | +0.69% |
Nasdaq | 22,886 | +0.90% |
Dow Jones | 49,625 | +0.47% |
Bitcoin | $67,670 | +1.14% |
BREAKING NEWS
📉Tariff Whack-A-Mole: Trump vs. The Supreme Court
Friday morning, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs are illegal. Trump's response? Hold my Diet Coke.
Within hours, he held a press conference calling the ruling "deeply disappointing" and announced new 10% global tariffs using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
But wait—just when I thought Saturday would give us a break from the headlines, Trump woke up and decided to bump it to 15% because apparently 10% wasn't dramatic enough.
Why Markets Rallied Anyway: Traders expected this exact game of legal whack-a-mole. The new Section 122 tariffs legally cap at 15% and can only last 150 days without Congressional approval. Translation: Trump's hands are more tied than before, preventing his "unlimited tariffs" fantasy.
The $133 Billion Question: The government collected $133 billion from the now-illegal tariffs. Companies like Costco are already suing for refunds which could potentially inject a massive stimulus check into corporate America.
The Munch Take: As usual, nothing is really going to happen. This will get kicked around until 2028. Overall, lower tariffs = lower inflation fears = bullish for stocks, and that’s why the market's celebrating like it just dodged a financial bullet.
📊 GDP & Inflation: The Stagflation Scare That Wasn't
Friday's data drop looked terrifying at first glance:
GDP came in at 1.4% (expected 2.5%)
Core PCE inflation hit 3.0%—a full percentage point above the Fed's 2% target.
The Real Story: That weak GDP was almost entirely caused by the 43-day government shutdown, which dragged growth down by roughly 1 full percentage point. Strip out the political chaos, and "Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers" (what consumers and businesses actually bought) grew at a robust 2.4%.
The Inflation Problem: Inflation jumped 0.4% for the month, double November's pace because of stubborn service costs and lingering tariff effects. This basically guarantees the Fed won't cut rates anytime soon.
The Munch Take: Recession odds on Polymarket actually dropped because traders know the GDP number is an optical illusion. The economy's still chugging along. The Fed's just stuck in purgatory.
Porter Stansberry’s Critical New Warning:
This Is The End of
An Economic Age
Trump’s Executive Order 14365 set to “reset” U.S. economy…
Get the stocks to buy and sell ahead of this bombshell event.
WAR
🛢️ Iran Tensions: 60% Strike Odds, Oil Above $71
Polymarket traders have repriced the odds of a US strike on Iran by March 31 to 60%. The US is executing its largest military buildup since the 2003 Iraq invasion:
17 warships (including two aircraft carriers)
F-22 Raptors
F-35 fighters
Enough firepower to make this look serious
Trump gave Iran "probably 10 days" to make a deal before "bad things happen."
The Real Risk: It's not just the strike—it's Iran retaliating by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's oil flows. There’s only an 18% chance of that happening, but if it does, analysts warn oil could spike past $90 and potentially hit $130.
Where the Opportunity Lies:
Defense Stocks: BAE Systems is already up 23% in 2026 as governments rapidly restock arsenals.
Domestic Energy Producers: Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy become highly attractive if Middle Eastern oil is threatened.
Gold: Already past $5,000 and acting as a hedge against instability.
The Munch Take: The market's pricing in the threat of war, not the reality. If bombs actually drop, oil could go vertical and the broader market takes a hit. Watch the headlines closely.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
🤑 $JPM Jamie Dimon just casually unloaded $21 million of JP Morgan shares like he's cleaning out his couch cushions. This follows the $180 million he dumped at the end of 2023 - Pocket change when you're sitting on 6.2 million shares worth roughly $1.9 billion. I genuinely cannot fathom what I'd do with that kind of money.
🤔 $HOOD We’ve been considering a buy in Robinhood and they just posted their January metrics. Users climbed by 7%, and their total platform assets are up 59% YoY. The stock is down 30% over the last month. Time to buy or dead money?
📉 Software Apocalypse Watch Every single software company in the S&P 500 is now trading below its 200-day moving average for the first time since the April 2025 bottom. Read that again. Every. Single. One. If you think the AI disruption fears are overblown—and we do—this might be the once-in-a-decade fire sale where fortunes get made.
$APP AppLovin climbed 1.62% Friday on news they're launching a new social media platform, which is genuinely the last thing humanity needs right now. My dopamine receptors are filing for bankruptcy and my wife's filing restraining orders against my phone. Please, for the love of productivity, no more platforms.
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OUTLOOK
📅 The Week Ahead: Nvidia, Home Improvement, & Inflation
Wednesday: Nvidia Earnings – The entire market holds its breath. Wall Street expects revenue growth near 70%. This is the ultimate test for whether the AI boom continues or if the bubble might pop.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Home Depot & Lowe's – With high interest rates freezing the housing market, these earnings will show if consumers are still spending on renovations or aggressively tightening their belts.
Friday: PPI Inflation Report – Expected to rise 0.3%. After last week's hot PCE numbers, traders will be hypersensitive. If wholesale prices spike, rate cuts are dead for months.
The Munch Take: Nvidia carries the market. If they disappoint, expect carnage. If they crush it, we rally. Everything else is just noise.
🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
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