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๐ Breaking: US Launches New Strikes On Iran

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BREAKING NEWS
๐ US Strikes Iran Again After Cargo Ship Drone Attack
There is now an unofficial pattern to this war. Markets close Friday. Something gets hit Friday night. Everyone spends the weekend staring at their phones. Markets open Monday and figure out the damage.
On Thursday, Iran's Revolutionary Guards struck a Singapore-flagged cargo ship with a drone in the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, the US hit back, targeting Iranian missile storage facilities, drone storage sites, and coastal radar systems. This is the first American military strike on Iran since the ceasefire was signed last week.
Since the ceasefire agreement has been signed, ships have been moving through again and oil prices have dropped back toward pre-war levels. But that progress is now in serious jeopardy. JD Vance summed up the US position in few words: "Violence will be met with violence."
Here's what markets need to watch moving forward:
๐ข๏ธ Oil is the first domino. The ceasefire agreement brought oil down hard. If that unwinds Monday morning, expect a fast move back toward $100 and above.
๐ Risk assets don't like surprise weekend headlines. Stocks, crypto, and anything considered risky tend to drop Monday morning when geopolitical news breaks over the weekend.
๐ฆ Shipping costs are about to hurt your wallet. If cargo ships stop moving through the Strait again, the cost to ship everything from electronics to groceries spikes within days. That cost gets passed straight to you at checkout.
The Munch Take: Every single weekend since this war started, something happens that makes Monday morning look scarier than Friday afternoon. We might be wrong on this one, but we donโt expect this to escalate. In fact, even before the ceasefire was signed, the market seemed to stop caring about the war and we think this headline will be the same. Monday will tell.
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AROUND THE GLOBE
๐ Oracle Just Had Its Worst Week Since The Dot-Com Crash
Oracle ( $ORCL ( โผ 2.58% ) ) fell 18% last week, its worst weekly performance since August 2001 when the dot-com bubble was bursting in real time. For context, that was the same era when people were buying pet food websites at billion-dollar valuations.
The selloff erased roughly $80 billion in market cap in a single week, pushing the stock down 24% year to date and well below its 52-week high of $345. That's a brutal stretch for a company that was supposed to be one of the biggest winners of the AI boom.
So why did the stock get crushed? It wasn't because Oracle's business is slowing. Itโs because the price tag for its AI ambitions shocked Wall Street. The company said it plans to raise nearly $40 billion through debt and equity while sharply increasing spending on new AI data centers. Oracle now expects to spend up to $95 billion in the year ahead. Nearly double. Investors aren't questioning demand for AI. They're questioning how expensive this race is becoming and whether Oracle can earn enough to justify the bill.
Here's why investors are nervous:
๐ธ The debt pile is alarming. Oracle's total debt now sits at roughly $153 billion, nearly double what it carried a year ago. Free cash flow swung to negative $23.7 billion. That's not a rounding error. That's a bonfire.
๐๏ธ One customer is carrying the whole story. More than half of Oracle's $638 billion backlog belongs to a single name: OpenAI. If that relationship changes, the entire investment thesis changes with it.
๐ด The boss didn't show up. Larry Ellison skipped the earnings call entirely, leaving two brand new co-CEOs and a freshly appointed finance chief to face the music alone. As a direct result of the stock's collapse, Ellison has since been knocked off the global wealth rankings by Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Jeff Bezos, and Michael Dell.
The Munch Take: Oracle has $638 billion in orders, growing cloud revenue, and one of the biggest AI backlogs on earth. It also has $156 billion in debt, negative free cash flow, and a stock that just had its worst week in 25 years. Both of those things are true at the same time. That's the whole dilemma. The business is tryign to win the AI race but the balance sheet is paying the price.
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