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☕️ GM Munchers! ☕️ GM Munchers! I spent the weekend reading financial news so you do not have to. My wife spent the weekend asking me why I was reading financial news instead of mowing the lawn. The lawn is still long. The newsletter is ready. Priorities.

On today’s menu:

• 🕊️ The Iran War Is Over. Oil Just Crashed. Now What?

• 🚀 SpaceX Is Now Live. Here’s What Comes Next.

• 📉 These Space Stocks Crashed

• 🤖 The Government Just Shut Down Anthropic's Most Powerful AI

• 😬 Michael Burry Isn’t Doing So Well

Friday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

🕊️ The Iran War Is Over. Oil Just Crashed. Now What?

Last night Donald Trump posted something that the market has been waiting for since February 28th. "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all."

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed the ceasefire is now in place. The official signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. The deal includes an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts including Lebanon. The war that started almost four months ago when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran is officially over.

Unsurprisingly, oil crashed over 4% on the news and dropped below $81 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries 20% of the world's daily oil supply, is set to reopen as part of the agreement. More oil moving through that strait means more supply hitting the market. More supply means lower prices. Your gas bill is about to get cheaper.

Here is what this means across markets right now:

• Oil falling below $81 is great news for airlines, shipping companies, and any business that runs on fuel. Watch $DAL Delta, $UAL United Airlines, and $UPS UPS for a bounce this week.

• Lower oil prices mean lower energy costs across the whole economy. That cools inflation. Cooler inflation gives the Federal Reserve less reason to raise rates which is very good news for stocks.

• Gold and silver may pull back as the fear trade unwinds. When the world feels safer, investors sell safe haven assets and buy riskier things instead.

What Traders Are Watching This Week: The war ending removes the biggest wildcard from markets this year. But it doesn’t fix everything. Polymarket currently prices a 49% chance of a rate hike in 2026, the highest level all year. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday where Kevin Warsh will chair his very first policy meeting with a CPI report showing 4.2% inflation sitting on the table in front of him. The war ending cools some of that pressure but does not erase it. If Warsh signals a rate hike is coming, markets might react harder than they did to any missile launch.

The Munch Take: The war is over. Oil is falling. The Strait of Hormuz is opening. This is genuinely great news and markets are going to celebrate. But the next big fight is not in the Middle East. It is in a Federal Reserve meeting room on Wednesday. Inflation is still at a three-year high. A rate hike is now basically a coin flip. The geopolitical crisis just ended and got immediately replaced by an economic one. My wife heard the war was over last night and said "so everything goes back to normal now?" I told her mostly yes, except for inflation, the Fed, the national debt, and the AI regulation situation. She looked at me and said "so no then." She’s not wrong but at least we can cross one very big thing off the list.

🚀 SpaceX Just Had The Greatest IPO Debut In History. Here’s What Comes Next.

Friday was one for the history books. $SPCX SpaceX opened at $150 per share, well above the $135 IPO price, hit a high of $176.52, and closed up 19.22% at $160.95. The company is now valued at $2.1 trillion, making it the sixth most valuable public company in America. Four hundred current and former SpaceX employees became worth over $100 million each in a single afternoon.

Options trading on SpaceX begins Tuesday, giving traders the ability to make leveraged bets on the stock for the first time. Options are contracts that let you bet on whether a stock goes up or down without buying the shares outright. With a stock this volatile and this closely watched, options activity is going to be extremely heavy right out of the gate.

Other space stocks did not share the celebration. Virgin Galactic, Rocket Lab, and Intuitive Machines all sold off on Friday as money rotated into SpaceX and out of smaller competitors. That kind of selling after a big IPO is common and may be temporary as the dust settles this week.

Here is what investors are watching most closely this week:

• Insiders, employees, and early investors are locked up and cannot sell yet. The first batch of shares unlocks after Q2 earnings between mid-July and September. The full lockup does not expire until mid-December. This first week of trading has zero insider selling pressure behind it. When that changes, the market will notice fast.

• SpaceX becomes eligible for fast-track Nasdaq 100 entry around July 3rd, just 15 trading days after IPO. Every index fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 would then be forced to buy $SPCX automatically. Bloomberg estimates that triggers roughly $14 billion in forced buying. That is the single biggest near-term catalyst for the stock.

• Analysts cannot agree on SpaceX. The average 12-month price target is $164 but the range runs from $63 all the way to $227. That kind of disagreement means the first earnings report, expected in August, is going to be one of the most watched calls of the year.

The Munch Take: People online are saying trillionaires should not exist. Some very loud politicians are saying Elon Musk having $1 trillion is a sign something is broken. Here is a different take. Musk's SpaceX pay package is structured so that he gets nothing unless SpaceX reaches a $7.5 trillion valuation AND establishes a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million people living there. Until then, his base salary is $54,080 a year. The man is essentially working for free until humanity becomes a multi-planetary species. He employs hundreds of thousands of people across Tesla, SpaceX, and his other companies. He is building rockets, satellites, AI, and now the infrastructure to put humans on Mars. Whether you love him or find him complicated, what he is doing has never been done before. The world is better and more interesting because someone is bold enough to try. My wife looked at the SpaceX chart on Friday and said "that is pretty cool actually." High praise from someone who has never voluntarily read a financial story in her life. That is the right reaction.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🪙 $BTC Bitcoin climbed back above $65,000 after Trump announced the peace deal with Iran. Geopolitical calm is good for risk assets. Crypto remembered that fact immediately and acted accordingly.

💰 $SCHW Charles Schwab jumped nearly 3% after reporting a record $49.9 billion in net new assets in May, up 43% from a year ago. When investors are pouring money into brokerage accounts at that pace, it means confidence is coming back. Schwab is a good thermometer for how regular people feel about the market.

🎨 $ADBE Adobe slipped nearly 7% despite beating earnings and raising guidance. The CFO Dan Durn announced he is leaving and the market decided that mattered more than the good numbers. Sometimes one person walking out the door is louder than every metric on the page.

🚀 On Friday the market only wanted one space stock and it was not any of these. $ECHO EchoStar dropped nearly 11% despite owning a stake in SpaceX. $RKLB Rocket Lab and $ASTS AST SpaceMobile fell 10.79% and 15.53% respectively. When SpaceX went public, every other space company became the less exciting option at the same party. That selling may be temporary. But Friday was not their day.

🛢️ $WDS Woodside Energy jumped over 6% on reports that $XOM Exxon Mobil is looking at a potential acquisition of the Australian oil producer.

STORY OF THE DAY

🤖 The Government Just Shut Down Anthropic's Most Powerful AI. Here’s Why This Is A Big Deal.

Three days after launch. That is how long it took for the US government to pull the plug.

On Friday at 5:21pm, Anthropic got a letter from the US government ordering it to shut down its two newest AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, for every foreign national on earth, including foreign employees working inside Anthropic's own offices. Because Anthropic could not check the nationality of every user fast enough, it had to turn off both models for everyone. Every single customer. Gone. Three days after launch.

The government said someone found a way to trick the AI into doing things it shouldn’t, which is called a jailbreak. Anthropic looked at the jailbreak and said it was not a big deal and that other AI models already available to the public could do the same thing. The company called the whole thing a misunderstanding and warned that if the government applied this same rule to every AI company, it would stop the entire industry from releasing new models.

The shutdown even blocked one of Anthropic's own top scientists from using the models he helped build, simply because he was not born in America. That one detail tells you everything about how wide this order was.

Here is why traders and investors should care even though Anthropic is a private company:

• OpenAI is preparing to go public. Investors putting money into an AI company IPO now have to ask a new question: what happens if the government shuts down your best product with three days notice and no warning? That question drastically changes how much a company is worth.

• $NVDA Nvidia, $MSFT Microsoft, and $GOOGL Google all make money selling the computers and software that power AI models. If those models can be turned off by a government letter, the business case for all that hardware gets a lot shakier.

• Anthropic said out loud that if this standard gets applied across the whole AI industry, new model releases could stop entirely. That is not a small statement from one of the biggest AI companies in the world.

The Munch Take: The most powerful AI ever built got shut down three days after launch by a letter that arrived on a Friday afternoon. No detailed explanation. No warning. Just off. Anthropic says it was a mistake. The government says it was national security. What is now up for debate is what this means going forward. Every AI company now knows the government can turn off their best product at any moment. That is a new risk nobody had priced in before last week.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Monday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 😏 How daily 'stock bets' hit 87% of the time (Ad)

2. 😬 Michael Burry isn’t doing so well.

3. ❌ Sam Bankman-Fried isn’t getting out of jail.

4. 💰️ This stock is the most oversold it’s been in 30 years.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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