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☕️ GM Munchers! Markets are pricing 55% odds Iran's Supreme Leader gets removed, Trump's invaded one country and is eyeing another, and I'm just trying to figure out why asking "what's for dinner?" triggered a 20-minute lecture about emotional labor. Global instability I understand. Domestic policy remains a mystery.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 Supreme Court Verdict & Costco Saves America

• 🔥 Crypto's $166M Liquidation Bloodbath

• 📊 Today’s Jobs Report: The No-Win Setup

• 😥 Apple’s Losing Streak Continues

• 👀 Is Iran’s Supreme Leader About To Be Removed?

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

🏛️ Supreme Court's Tariff Verdict: The Binary Event Nobody Wanted

The Supreme Court rules today on whether Trump's tariffs are legal. Prediction markets price 73% odds they strike them down.

If tariffs die:

• Import costs drop (bullish for consumers, retailers)

• Trade deficit potentially widens again (Trump's narrative collapses)

• Risk-on rally (markets hate uncertainty, love resolution)

If tariffs survive:

• Trump's trade war fully validated

• Inflation fears return (tariffs = higher prices)

• Defensive positioning (staples, utilities outperform)

The irony: October's trade deficit just hit $29.4B—lowest since 2009 thanks to those same tariffs. Down 39% from prior month. Exports up 2.6%, imports slipping 3.5%.

The Munch Take: Markets are positioned for tariffs to die (73% odds). If they survive, expect whipsaw volatility. Either way, binary events like this are coin flips dressed as analysis.

🛒 Costco Proves America's Favourite Hobby Is Bulk Buying

Costco ripped 5%+ yesterday after reporting $29.86B in December sales—a 7% year-over-year increase that crushed expectations.

Why this matters beyond one stock:

Costco is the ultimate consumer health gauge. When people are loading up on bulk toilet paper and 3-pound cheese wheels, the economy isn't collapsing.

The data:

• Comparable sales: +7.0% globally

• Digital sales: +18.9% (AI shopping assistants working overtime)

• Stock down -1.29% over past year (this rally erases 2025 pain)

The Munch Take: Costco's numbers suggest consumers are still spending despite recession fears. This is risk-on evidence. If shoppers were truly broke, they wouldn't be dropping $500 on a single Costco run. Watch Walmart and Target next—if they post similar beats, recession narrative dies.

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CRYPTO

₿ Crypto's $166M Liquidation Bloodbath

$166,000,000 in long positions liquidated in 4 hours. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $90K before recovering, now retesting support.

What happened: Overleveraged longs got margin-called into oblivion. Tale as old as crypto.

Why it matters: Bitcoin's given back most 2026 gains. Without new catalysts (rate cuts, institutional buying, regulatory clarity), we're rangebound at best.

The Munch Take: Liquidation cascades are healthy—they flush out weak hands. But without macro tailwinds (Fed cuts unlikely, recession fears rising), crypto needs a new narrative. We're watching $90K support. Break below = $80K next. Hold above = potential retest of $100K.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

$BABA – Alibaba jumped 5% yesterday, riding momentum from its 80% climb in 2025. The stock's still down 34% over five years, so it's basically recovering from its own disaster. If you can stomach Chinese government risk (policy changes arrive without warning), there's opportunity here. Most can't. Understandable.

$LMT – Lockheed Martin had the most bipolar week imaginable. Monday: Trump bans defense buybacks, stock crashes 7%. Hours later: Trump proposes $1.5 trillion military budget, stock rockets 7% back in hours. Defense stocks are now just leveraged Trump mood swings. Trading them requires a strong stomach and zero attachment to sanity.

$GAP – Gap ripped 7% after UBS upgraded it to Buy. The reason? Growth in beauty products, handbags, and Athleta. Turns out selling things people actually want is good for business. Revolutionary retail strategy.

$AAPL – Apple's been red every single trading day of 2026. All seven days. That's not a losing streak—that's a New Year's tradition nobody asked for. Even trillion-dollar companies occasionally forget stocks are supposed to go up. We're watching to see if day 8 breaks the curse or extends the misery.

$SNDK – SanDisk, last year's S&P champion (up 577%), dropped 5.38% as traders remembered profit-taking exists. When you're up that much, a 5% pullback isn't a crash—it's just some people cashing checks before the party ends. Smart money knows when to leave.

NEWS

📊 Jobs Report: The No-Win Setup

Unemployment data drops 8:30 AM EST today. Expectations: 4.5% (down from 4.6%).

The paradox:

• Strong jobs (below 4.5%): Recession fears ease, but Fed stays hawkish = no rate cuts = markets hate it

• Weak jobs (above 4.5%): Recession narrative strengthens = risk-off = markets hate it

January rate cut odds: 11% (basically zero).

The Munch Take: This is a lose-lose for risk assets. Strong data kills rate cut hopes. Weak data triggers recession panic. Whatever happens, volatility's coming.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Friday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 👀 Is Iran’s Supreme Leader about to be removed?

2. 📉 Trump is trying to bring mortgage rates down.

3. 🇨🇦 Canadian inflation is a lie.

4. 😂 The UK is thinking about banning Twitter.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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