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Election Night Trading Strategy: Stay In or Stay Out? šŸ§

PLUS: The Secrets Behind This $4,500 Prop Firm Payout šŸ‘€

Today's edition is brought to you by our 90-Day Prop Firm Masterclass ā€“ A proven blueprint to help you pass prop firm challenges and get funded, risk-free. If you donā€™t get funded in 90 days, weā€™ll refund you.

šŸ“ˆ GM Munchers! Hope your weekā€™s off to a better start than my Monday tradesā€”letā€™s just say Iā€™ve seen stop losses tighter than my jeans after Thanksgiving.

Weā€™re just a week out from the US Electionā€”which means your uncle is probably firing off more conspiracy theories than a Reddit thread on overdrive. But forget the tinfoil hats, letā€™s focus on how we can make some real money. šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡²šŸ’°ļø

On todayā€™s menu:

  • How To Make Money During Election Night šŸ§

  • The Secrets Behind This $4,500 Prop Firm Payout šŸ‘€ 

  • This Popular Trading Podcast Says No To Scammers āŒ 

Election Night Trading Strategy: Stay In or Stay Out? šŸ§ 

The 2024 US election is right around the corner, and if history tells us anything, itā€™s that election night is a roller coaster of market moves.

Think about it:

  • Back in 2016, the S&P 500 futures crashed over 5% overnight when Trump pulled ahead, only to rebound by morning.

  • In 2020, we saw similar chaos with a mix of pandemic fear and political uncertainty.

So, the million-dollar question for traders in 2024 is: Should you stay in the market or sit this one out?

We get itā€”election night can feel like an all-you-can-eat buffet of volatility.

Tempting, right? šŸ˜ 

But just like any buffet, you can end up overindulging and regret it the next day.

Letā€™s break down how to approach this high-stakes night like a pro.

Prediction Markets: A New Way to Trade Elections šŸ“Š

Before we dive into the strategy, letā€™s talk about something new in the 2024 electionā€”prediction markets.

These platforms, like Polymarket, allow people to bet on the outcome of events, including elections. Think of it as the financial marketā€™s version of sports betting but with political outcomes.

Take a look at the latest snapshot from Polymarket:

Nature is healingā€¦

As of now, $2.7 billion šŸ¤Æ has been bet on the outcome of the 2024 US election, with:

  • Donald Trump leading at 66.9% odds šŸ‘ļø 

  • Kamala Harris trailing at 33.1% šŸ‘Žļø 

Traders are flocking to platforms like Polymarket because they offer a real-time reflection of market sentiment.

In a sense, they can predict market movements before they happen.

Why does this matter for you?

Thereā€™s a couple of reasons this might be your new secret trading weapon:

  • These prediction markets can provide clues about where the election is headed, which can be incredibly useful for gauging market sentiment.

  • If the odds on Polymarket shift dramatically, you might get a heads-up on an impending market move, letting you plan your trades more strategically.

1. Volatility Is Inevitable šŸŒ€

First off, volatility is a given. šŸŽ¢ 

It doesnā€™t matter if itā€™s a close race or a landslide victoryā€”markets are going to move, and theyā€™re going to move fast.

Why?

Because the election isnā€™t just about who sits in the Oval Office, itā€™s about the policies that come with it.

Taxes, spending, regulationā€”itā€™s all on the line, and the markets will be scrambling to price that in.

Actionable Tip:

You need to know which assets prefer which candidate.

Hereā€™s our back-of-the-napkin breakdown:

  • Crypto = Trump

  • Equities = Trump

  • Green Energy Stocks = Kamala

But if election night volatility isnā€™t your idea of fun, hereā€™s what you can do to avoid sweating bullets:

  • Reduce your exposure before the chaos kicks in.

  • Lower your position sizes to limit risk.

  • Widen your stops to avoid getting knocked out too early.

  • Or, take a breather and sit this one outā€”sometimes the best trade is no trade at all.

2. Historical Trends: Buckle Up for the Whipsaw šŸŽ¢

Election nights are known for sudden spikes and drops, often in both directions within minutes.

Back in 2016, as Trump began to pull ahead, the futures market tanked. But by the time the sun came up, the market had completely flipped, and stocks rallied.

Actionable Tip:

If youā€™re planning to trade through the night, use pending orders rather than market orders. This way, you can avoid the chaos of knee-jerk reactions and catch better entries on retracements.

No one wants to be the trader who hits the panic sell button right before the rebound. āŒ 

3. Consider Hedging Your Bets šŸ”’

If you want to play it smart during the chaos of election night, hedging might just be your secret weapon.

Now, I know "hedging" sounds like an advanced Wall Street term, but trust meā€”it doesn't have to be complicated. Itā€™s all about protecting yourself by balancing the scales.

For example, look at inversely correlated pairs like:

  • USD/JPY & Gold (When the USD strengthens, gold tends to drop) šŸ‡ÆšŸ‡µ 

  • USD/CAD & Oil (Canadaā€™s economy is heavily tied to oil prices) šŸ‡ØšŸ‡¦ 

  • GBP/USD & USD/CHF (CHF = safe haven, GBP = more neutral) šŸ‡¬šŸ‡§ 

By holding positions in two inversely correlated pairs, when one trade goes south, the other is likely to be your hero.

But rememberā€”itā€™s all about timing and risk management. šŸ•°ļø

Hedging reduces your exposure, but if youā€™re sharp on your exits, it can also boost your pips in both directions.

Actionable Tip:

Brush up on your fundamentals (like in our free Skool community) and focus on inversely correlated pairs that are setting up for solid trades. A well-placed hedge can let you rest easy while the results unfold. šŸ˜“

4. Watch Key Markets: Itā€™s Not Just About the S&P 500 šŸ”

Yes, the S&P 500 is the big one everyoneā€™s watching. But donā€™t sleep on the US Dollar (USD), Treasury bonds, and even gold.

Elections can affect risk sentiment globally, which means forex traders and gold bugs could see major action.

  • USD: Will likely swing depending on market confidence in the new administration's fiscal policy.

  • Gold: A go-to safe haven when things look uncertain.

  • Treasury Bonds: Investors tend to rush into bonds if theyā€™re nervous about future policy stability.

Actionable Tip:

Keep an eye on cross-asset moves. A sell-off in equities might mean a boost for gold or bonds, giving you an opportunity to pivot depending on the initial reaction.

5. The "Stay Out" Strategy šŸ‘‹

Look, if youā€™re not feeling this whole election night drama, thereā€™s no shame in sitting on the sidelines.

Letā€™s be realā€”election night isnā€™t the time for casual trading. If youā€™re not prepared for big swings or donā€™t have a plan, cash is a position too.

Actionable Tip:

Remember, sometimes the best trade is no trade. If you're unsure about how the night will unfold, close your positions, keep your powder dry, and live to trade another day.

There will be plenty of opportunities post-election when the dust settles. šŸš€ 

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ā˜•ļø Pre-Market Fuel

  1. This popular trading podcast finally raises the bar. After getting a lot of hate for having scammers and fake traders on, this is a good move.

  2. The Secrets Behind This $4,500 Prop Firm Payout. A great 6-minute watch.

  3. Insane fan at the World Series. This isnā€™t trading-related but itā€™s absolutely wild.

šŸŖ Munchy Memes

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