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  • πŸ“‰ Elon’s Historic $1.5 Trillion IPO

πŸ“‰ Elon’s Historic $1.5 Trillion IPO

Elon Musk is quietly planning the largest IPO in stock market history.

By taking SpaceX public, he stands to gain an instant $625 billion in new wealth.

The good news, for you and I, is we can essentially partner with Elon before he cashes out with this record payday.

All you need is $100… plus the ticker I'd like to share with you.

Sincerely,
Tim Bohen

CHART OF THE DAY

🎰 Someone Knows Something. And They're Betting $170,000 On It.

A brand new Polymarket wallet, created this month, just dropped $170,000 on US forces entering Iran before March 31. Potential payout: $777,000. The account has made exactly 7 predictions. All of them on Iran.

This is not an isolated incident.

  • 71 minutes before the world learned about the February 28 US-Israeli strike on Iran, a trader called "Magamyman" placed a bet when the odds sat at just 17%. He walked away with $553,000.

  • A Columbia Law study analyzed 93,000 Polymarket markets and found flagged traders achieved a 69.9% win rate. That exceeds random chance by more than 60 standard deviations.

Is it insider trading? Here's what we know. Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to Polymarket and his venture capital firm has invested millions into the platform. The Trump administration also shut down two federal investigations into Polymarket opened under Biden.

Make of that what you will.

Senator Chris Murphy has introduced the BETS OFF Act, which would prohibit platforms like Polymarket from allowing bets on war, government actions, and terrorism.

The Munch Take: A fresh wallet, zero history, $170,000 on a war outcome, 3 days before the deadline. Meanwhile, I’m rubbing pennies together to buy a scratch ticket at the gas station. There’s levels to this game and I’m stuck on Level 1.

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CHART OF THE DAY

πŸ“¦ Amazon Is The Cheapest It's Been In A Decade.

EV/EBIT β€” that's Enterprise Value divided by Operating Profit, the number that tells you what the market is actually paying for a dollar of real earnings β€” just hit 22.25x on $AMZN. The lowest reading in over ten years. The market is pricing the world's largest cloud and e-commerce company like a regional grocery chain.

Why It's Down:

  • Amazon committed $200 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. That's a monster AI infrastructure bet that is destroying free cash flow right now, today, before it pays off.

  • Tariff fears are hitting the retail side hard. Half of Amazon's third-party sellers source from China. That math gets ugly fast.

  • Wall Street is re-rating $AMZN as a mature business, not a growth story. When the multiple compresses, it compresses hard.

πŸ“ˆ The Bull Case: AWS grew 24% last year, its fastest pace in 13 quarters. The $200 billion spend is a timing issue, not a structural one. When the capex cycle matures, free cash flow comes back violent. Analysts at Jefferies have a $300 price target. That's 46% upside from here.

πŸ“‰ The Bear Case: $200 billion is a lot of faith in AI monetization that hasn't fully arrived yet. If AWS growth decelerates, that spend becomes an anchor, not a springboard.

What Buffett Would Say: He'd pass. Amazon is a brilliant business inside a capital expenditure bonfire. He needs to see the moat. Right now the moat is on fire.

The Munch Take: The market is treating $AMZN like it forgot AWS exists. That's either the opportunity of the year or a value trap dressed in a Prime box. My wife ordered something on Amazon this morning. Two-day shipping. Flawless. The consumer product still works. Whether the $200 billion bet does is the only question that matters.

MUNCHY MEMES

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