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📉 Europe vs. Trump
Pip Munch
January 20, 2026
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☕️ GM Munchers! If I knew Monday was a holiday, I wouldn't have been up late writing yesterday's email and would've actually enjoyed my Sunday like a functioning adult. Good thing you're all paying us $100/year for this premium financial journalism. Oh, wait…
On today’s menu:
📉 Europe vs. Trump & Silver Hits $94/oz
👀 Trump Impeachment Odds Hit 59%
⏰ Thursday = Inflation Data
😂 Buy Now Pay Later On Your Rent?
😏 Soon You’ll Be Able To Trade Stocks 24/7
Friday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,940 | -0.06% |
Nasdaq | 23,515 | -0.06% |
Dow Jones | 49,359 | -0.17% |
Bitcoin | $95,300 | -0.24% |
BREAKING NEWS
📉 Europe vs. Trump: The Greenland Trade War Nobody Asked For
Markets finally open after Trump's weekend Greenland-ransom announcement: 10% tariffs on eight European countries, escalating to 25% by June 1st unless they sell him an island.
Europe's response? Up to $108 billion in retaliatory tariffs, per the Financial Times. But here's where it gets wild: they might deploy their "Anti-Coercion Instrument"—literally nicknamed "the bazooka." This thing could block US suppliers from EU markets, kill public tenders, and restrict foreign investment.
It's never been used before. European leaders claim they want dialogue, but France is pushing hard for maximum retaliation.
The market impact: Stocks had the long weekend to digest this. Question is whether futures already priced it in or if we're about to get destroyed at open.
The Munch Take: We've been screaming for months that stocks are too frothy, which is why we're holding cash. If this dumps, we're buying. Trump acquiring Greenland? 22% odds on prediction markets. We're believers in the TACO trade—Trump Always Chickens Out. This is negotiation theater. But if you're fully deployed with no cash? Our condolences. You're about to learn why dry powder matters.
🚀 Silver Hits $94/oz: When Industrial Metals Go Full Crypto
Silver just did something absolutely unhinged: it hit $94/oz for the first time in history, ripping 31% higher already in 2026.
What's driving this? A physical squeeze meets geopolitical chaos:
Solar/AI demand: By 2026, solar panels and AI data centers are devouring global silver supply.
China's export curbs: China restricted silver exports to secure supply for their energy transition. This is starving Western markets.
The "paper" break: For years, futures contracts suppressed silver prices through unlimited derivatives selling. The spread between "paper silver" and "physical silver" finally broke. Traders are demanding actual delivery, but London vaults are critically low, forcing short sellers to cover at any price.
Why it matters: Silver's displaying the kind of overnight moon gains (+31% YTD) that were previously the domain of altcoins. The market's repricing silver from a "commodity" to a "strategic monetary asset" as central banks panic-buy hard assets amid dollar weakness.
The Munch Take: This is a short squeeze driven by a physical inventory crisis, triggered by geopolitical tariff shocks. If you missed the move, don't chase it at all-time highs—but watch for pullbacks. This could be early innings of a multi-year run.
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BIG PICTURE
🤔 Trump Impeachment Odds Hit 59%: Should Traders Care?
Prediction markets now say there's a 59% chance Trump gets impeached. That's the highest it's ever been—especially wild for someone who just started his term.
Here's why it matters: During Trump's last two impeachments (2019 and 2021), nobody actually thought he'd get removed. This time? The odds suggest real instability fears.
What this means for your portfolio:
Chaos mode: If people lose faith in the dollar because of political drama, they panic-buy gold and silver. That $94 silver price? It's not just supply shortages—it's "we don't trust anything anymore" pricing.
Gridlock is good? Historically, markets go up during impeachment fights because nothing gets done. No new tariffs, no surprise regulations. If impeachment kills Trump's tariff threats, the trade war fears might disappear—and commodities could crash.
The Munch Take: For now, this isn’t going to move the markets. But the Democrats are likely to take the House in the midterms this year, and if that happens, then this story gets a lot more interesting.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
📉 $NFLX Netflix reports earnings tomorrow and desperately needs good news before their stock chart starts looking like my trading account after discovering options. Analysts expect 16.8% revenue growth and EPS up almost 30%. We'll have the full breakdown tomorrow—probably while watching this trainwreck unfold in real-time.
😬 OpenAI's $14 Billion Problem: OpenAI is projected to lose $14 billion in 2026 alone. They could run out of money by 2027. Maybe they should ask ChatGPT "how to make a profit.”
🤣 $AFRM Affirm is reportedly rolling out buy now, pay later for rent payments. So people can now finance monthly housing costs in installments? This is either genius or the most catastrophic financial product since subprime mortgages. Taking on debt to pay debt sounds like a terrible idea, but what do I know?
🚀 SpaceX IPO Incoming: SpaceX is expected to go public later this year in what could be one of the biggest IPOs in history. Current revenue? Over $15 billion. Here’s how it breaks down.
WEEKLY OUTLOOK
⏰ PCE Data Thursday: The Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for November drops Thursday, along with revised Q3 GDP data and jobless claims. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation measure—more important than CPI for predicting rate decisions.
What to expect: Analysts expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at next week's meeting. But if PCE comes in hotter than expected, it reinforces the "inflation isn't dead" narrative that's been building since last week's PPI surprise.
The Munch Take: If PCE runs hot, it's another data point supporting our thesis that the Fed won't be cutting aggressively in 2026. That keeps pressure on rate-sensitive assets but supports the hard asset trade (gold, silver, commodities). Thursday's number matters more than most realize.
🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
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