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📉 Getting High on Trump's Supply

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☕️ GM Munchers! It's Monday, and my trading strategy for the week is the same as my approach to exercise: good intentions, questionable execution, and a 70% chance I give up by Wednesday.

On today’s menu:

  • 📉 AI Stocks Crash & Weed Stocks Rip

  • 🥳 Lululemon Fires CEO & The Stock Flies

  • 🤝 Coinbase + Prediction Markets

  • 🚗 Rivian Is Back In The News

  • 🤔 A Big Mac In 1994 Vs 2025

Friday’s numbers:

S&P 500

6,827

-1.07%

Nasdaq

23,195

-1.69%

Dow Jones

48,458

-0.51%

Bitcoin

$90,220

-0.08%

BREAKING NEWS

💻 AI Stocks Just Had Their "Oh Sh*t" Moment

The big news on Friday was AI stocks.

First, Broadcom. They posted better-than-expected earnings—revenue up 28%, EPS crushing estimates—and the stock crashed 11% anyway, vaporizing over $200 billion in market cap.

Second, Oracle, which dropped 7% on reports that OpenAI data centers got delayed to 2028 (Oracle denied it, but damage done). Nvidia, AMD, and the entire AI complex bled alongside them.

Why the market freaked:

When one AI stock flashes warning signs, investors suddenly remember that these stocks are priced for perfection and they have a panic attack.

For Broadcom, the CFO admitted margins are compressing due to higher AI chip costs. Translation? The AI gold rush is expensive, and investors just realized these companies actually have to spend money to make it. Shocking.

These companies are so big that a few percentage points were enough to drag down the entire index with them.

The Munch Take:

Welcome to the AI hangover. We’re in a back-and-forth of AI hype and investors asking, “Wait, does this company actually make money?” This might be short-lived like all the other drops, but we’re not buying at these valuations.

🌿 Trump's About to Legalize Weed (And Cannabis Stocks Are Lit)

Trump's expected to sign an executive order reclassifying marijuana as soon as today and cannabis stocks went absolutely parabolic Friday in anticipation.

Tilray surged 45%. Yes, forty-five percent in a single day.

Why this matters:

Reclassifying cannabis would allow banks to finally serve the industry, unlock federal research funding, and potentially speed up nationwide legalization. It's the regulatory green light (pun intended) the sector's been begging for since forever.

The Munch Take:

Pot stocks have been dead money for years—down 8% YTD for the Amplify Cannabis ETF, and Tilray peaked above $2,140 (adjusted for splits) in 2018 before collapsing into oblivion.

But if Trump actually follows through? This could be the beginning of a legitimate sector revival. Rescheduling isn't full legalization, but it's a massive step toward legitimacy.

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STOCKS

🧘 Lululemon Fires CEO, Stock Rips 12% (Problem Solved, Right?)

Lululemon's been the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year—down over 50%—and Friday they announced CEO Calvin McDonald is stepping down effective January 31.

The stock ripped 12% on the news because apparently Wall Street's solution to declining sales is "fire the guy in charge and hope for magic."

The brutal reality:

  • Revenue down 2% in the Americas

  • International sales up 33%, but that's not enough to offset domestic weakness

  • Facing brutal competition from Vuori, Alo Yoga, and shifting consumer preferences

  • Tariffs expected to cut $210-240 million from profits

Earnings yesterday:

  • EPS: $2.59 (beat expectations of $2.25)

  • Revenue: $2.57 billion (missed $2.48 billion estimate)

So they beat on earnings but missed on revenue, which is the corporate equivalent of winning the participation trophy.

The Munch Take:

Firing the CEO doesn't fix the core problem: nobody wants overpriced yoga pants as much as they used to. Lululemon expanded into shoes, outerwear, and casual work attire, but growth is coming from international markets while the U.S.—their biggest market—is declining.

This is a classic relief rally. Investors are betting the next CEO magically fixes years of strategic missteps and competitive pressure. Good luck with that.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

$DIS Disney's Zootopia 2 just became the second movie this year to crack $1 billion at the box office, and it's even crushing it in China—a market that's been blocking US films like a bouncer at an exclusive club for years. Yet somehow, Disney stock is flat for 2025, proving once again that printing a billion dollars at the box office apparently doesn't matter when your streaming division is still bleeding cash like a trader's first options experiment.

$COIN Coinbase is about to unveil prediction markets powered by Kalshi, which is massive news for two reasons: (1) prediction markets are hotter than Nvidia in 2023, and (2) we actually own this stock. We bought in April at $180, and things were looking gorgeous until crypto decided to have another identity crisis. We're holding long-term because we're either disciplined investors or stubborn idiots—the market will decide which.

SpaceX IPO Watch: SpaceX is selling insider shares at an $800 billion valuation—and they're not even public yet. Rumors suggest the 2026 IPO could be the largest in history. So yeah, your retirement now depends on whether Elon can juggle colonizing Mars, running a car company, managing a social media platform, and not saying anything unhinged on Twitter for 72 consecutive hours. No pressure.

$RIVN Rivian surged 12.11% after announcing a new AI chip and robotaxi ambitions, because nothing says "we've figured out how to make money" quite like pivoting to the exact same moonshot everyone else is chasing. Bold strategy—let's see if it pays off better than their previous "let's burn billions building electric trucks" plan.

$FDX FedEx reports earnings Thursday after close. The stock's up a measly 4% YTD, so they desperately need good news—or at least news that doesn't remind everyone that delivering packages in 2025 is harder than it sounds when fuel costs exist and customers expect free two-day shipping.

$NKE Nike also reports Thursday as they continue their "comeback tour" from being down 8% YTD. Turns out losing market share to younger, cooler brands while your signature athlete retires doesn't fix itself overnight. Who knew?

TRADING SUCCESS

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🍪 Munchy Memes

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