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Every day before 6AM, Matthew Tuttle sits down at his trading desk in Connecticut to write to you about hedges, edges, asymmetric opportunities and themes in the market.

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On today’s menu:

• 📈 The Market Ripped. Trump Spoke. Nothing Happened.

• 🚀 The Biggest IPO In History Just Got Real

• 👟 Nike Crashes To 2014 Levels

• 👀 A Massive $800,000 Insider Trade?

• 🍕 These Domino’s Pizza Returns Are Insane

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

🚀 The Market Ripped. Trump Spoke. Nothing Happened.

Yesterday was green. Again. Deeply, beautifully, almost suspiciously green. Stocks across the board moved higher and the heat map looked like someone spilled a Heineken on a Christmas tree.

Why It Rallied: Kalshi's recession odds cratered from 40% to 27%. The market is smelling a ceasefire brewing and did what it always does. It bought first and asked questions never.

The 9 PM Problem: Then Trump went on national television to address the nation on the Iran War. The rumour mill was running hot all day. Ground troops. Full escalation. Boots in Tehran by summer. I stress-eat an entire sleeve of crackers waiting for this speech. My wife fell asleep on the couch fourteen minutes before it started.

She had the right idea.

What He Actually Said: Roughly nothing. A lot of strong words. Some threats. A timeline that contradicted his previous timeline. Oil spiked above $101 a barrel the moment he started talking, then drifted back down once it became clear the speech was more temperature than substance.

The Munch Take: The market rallied because it wanted to rally. Trump spoke because he wanted to speak. Oil twitched and went back to sleep. We’re now in a wait-and-see environment. We’re not afraid to admit that nobody has any idea what’s really going on, and the next headlines could be major.

🚀 Project Apex: The Biggest IPO In History Just Got Real

SpaceX just filed confidentially with the SEC yesterday for a June listing. Code name: Project Apex. Twenty-one banks signed on, with Goldman, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Citi running point.

The numbers are not small. The raise could hit $75 billion, which dwarfs Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record in 2019. Total market cap at listing is expected to land between $1.5 and $1.75 trillion.

What You're Actually Buying: This isn't just rockets. SpaceX absorbed xAI earlier this year. Revenue is approaching $20 billion in 2026, driven by Falcon 9 launches and a Starlink constellation serving millions. The xAI piece is real but unproven.

📈 The Bull Case:

• They’re #1 in satellite launches and crewed spaceflight

• Starlink is a cash machine with global scale

• $24.4 billion in government contracts since 2008. NASA isn't going anywhere.

📉 The Bear Case:

• Musk is running more companies than we can keep track of.

• Are we really going to get to Mars anytime soon?

• Orbital data centers are the pitch they’re making. The engineering and economics remain unproven.

The Munch Take: Up to 30% of the offering is expected to go to retail investors, but a $1.5 trillion valuation? Unless we’re all going to be driving cars on Mars in the next few years, that seems rich for even my blood. What are the odds they hit $10 trillion for a 10x return before I’m in a seniors home? Pretty slim is my guess.

2:59 PM Friday. Make this trade.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

👟 $NKE Nike face-planted 15.51% yesterday, hitting its lowest level since 2014. That's not a bad quarter. That's a brand identity crisis in chart form.

🤳 $META ripped 12% this week. Funny how $200 billion in AI spending fears just evaporate the moment Middle East tensions cool. The market has the memory of a golden retriever. Treat it accordingly.

🔌 $MU Micron closed up 8.88%. Chips are back. Until they aren't. Enjoy it.

💊 $LLY Eli Lilly climbed 3.78% after the FDA approved Foundayo, its GLP-1 pill. For context, Foundayo is an Ozempic competitor you swallow instead of inject. We are approximately 18 months away from these things coming free with a Happy Meal.

👔 $PVH Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger parent PVH surged 9.73% on an earnings and revenue beat. Folding pants at Tommy Hilfiger was my first job. So yes, I am taking this as a personal win.

🛢️ $CVX Chevron shed 4.62% and $XOM ExxonMobil slipped 5.23% as oil prices fell. King Dollar doing its thing.

🌱 $BYND Beyond Meat cratered another 11.57% on a revenue miss. The stock is now down 99.53% over five years. Not a typo. Not a rounding error. A slow-motion extinction event for a company that was going to replace beef.

BIG PICTURE

👀 A Massive $800,000 Insider Trade?

I get heartburn when my wife spends $8 to rent a movie on Amazon. Someone just dropped $800,000 on Polymarket betting that US boots hit the ground in Iran before December 31st. I realize I’m not even at Level 1 of this investing game.

This exact account was right the last time the US struck Iran first which makes it that much more interesting to follow.

1. The Setup: The market currently prices a 65% chance of a ground invasion and a 75% chance of a ceasefire. Both. At the same time. The market is essentially betting this gets messier before it gets cleaner.

2. Why That Matters: Trump says Iran asked for a ceasefire. Iran denied it. Iran the Strait of Hormuz is fully under their control and they’re fully prepared for at least six months of war. Trump says it'll be over in three weeks. One of them is lying.

3. What The Market Believes: Stocks are pricing a quick resolution. Oil is pricing chaos. They cannot both be right.

The Munch Take: An $800,000 bet from a wallet with a verified track record on US-Iran escalation is not noise. It is a signal. I showed my wife the chart. She looked at it for four seconds and said "that seems bad." She then went back to watching her show. She is, historically, the better macro analyst in this household.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Thursday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🚀 How to profit from the biggest IPO in history ($7).

2. 📈 This mineral stock is up 357% this year.

3. 🧵 All these stocks just hit 52-week lows.

4. 🍕 These Domino’s Pizza returns are insane.

5. 💍 Diamond prices are the lowest in history.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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