Anthropic's IPO Could Price It At $2 Trillion

Anthropic's confidential filing sets up what investors expect to be the largest IPO in history — a reported $2 trillion or more, against a last private round at $965 billion. That would be roughly 17 times the $100 to $120 billion of year-end revenue backers project. The free report walks through the math, plus six other 2026 IPO plays that cleared our screen.

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☕️ GM Munchers! Did you miss me yesterday? I was at a wedding, and somewhere between the speeches and my fourth trip to the bar, the email just quietly didn't happen. We move on.

On today’s menu:

• 📈 The Nasdaq Hit A Record While Yields Scream Danger

• 🗳️ How The Midterms Could Shake Up Your Portfolio

• 🚀 SpaceX Has A Major Day

• 🇪🇺 Europe Has A Problem

• 🍟 McDonald’s Just Did Something Crazy

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📈 The Nasdaq Hit A Record While Yields Scream Danger

Here's a genuinely weird market moment. The Nasdaq climbed to a fresh all-time high yesterday, even as the 10-year Treasury yield sat near 5.3%, its highest level in 24 years. Normally, those two things don't happen together. Sky-high yields are supposed to crush expensive tech stocks, because when safe bonds pay this much, investors have less reason to bet on pricey growth names. Yet tech just shrugged and ripped to a record anyway.

So what's powering this? Two words: artificial intelligence. Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta led the charge, with Nvidia notching its first record close since May. Those three giants alone make up nearly 17% of the entire index. The AI trade is producing such massive, real earnings growth that it's overpowering the drag from rising rates. Add in last week's soft jobs report, which cooled fears of another October Fed hike, and you've got the fuel for a record.

But here's the catch worth knowing. This rally is narrow. A handful of AI mega-caps are doing almost all the heavy lifting, while plenty of regular stocks remain stuck, unable to compete with the juicy payouts bonds now offer.

• 📉 Three out of four stocks are in a downtrend: Only about 23% of S&P 500 companies are trading above their 50-day average, the weakest reading since April and down from 70% in mid-August.

• 🔻 New lows are piling up: As of October 2, there were 21 S&P 500 stocks sitting at fresh 52-week lows, including names like Netflix, Nike, and Lowe's, while only a handful hit new highs.

• ⏳ The streak is historic: The Nasdaq just logged its 25th straight session where new 52-week lows outnumbered new highs, the longest such stretch in 18 months.

The Munch Take: There's plenty to watch this week, so stay sharp. The Fed releases the minutes from its September meeting on Wednesday, which traders will dissect for clues on whether another hike is coming at the October 27-28 meeting. Add in the Trump-Xi summit and the kickoff of Q3 earnings season, and this week can swing the market hard. But the bigger lesson is in those bullet points above. When a record high is being carried by just a few AI giants while most stocks quietly bleed, that's a fragile rally, not a healthy one. It doesn't mean a crash is coming tomorrow, but it does mean the index looks a lot stronger than the average stock actually feels.

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NEWS OF THE DAY

🗳️ How The Midterms Could Shake Up Your Portfolio

With the midterm elections right around the corner, investors are doing their usual nervous dance, wondering whether all the political red and blue is about to bleed into their portfolios. Here's the good news upfront: history says you can probably relax.

Since 1938, the S&P 500 has climbed in the 12 months following a midterm election a jaw-dropping 95% of the time, with average gains of roughly 14%, according to Fidelity. Even October, the month famous for spectacular market crashes, tends to behave itself during midterm years. Normally October ranks as a middling seventh-best month for stocks, but in midterm years it jumps to the top of the leaderboard, averaging a 3% gain and finishing higher nearly 74% of the time. November has historically been almost as strong.

Now, a fair warning: patterns are not promises. During Trump's first midterm year in 2018, the S&P 500 actually dropped nearly 7% in October, snapping an otherwise beautiful streak. So history is a tailwind, not a guarantee.

The real action, though, is underneath the surface. The broad market tends to shrug off elections, but which specific stocks win and lose can shift dramatically depending on who controls Congress. JPMorgan laid out three scenarios worth knowing:

• 🤝 Gridlock (split Congress): When nobody can pass big legislation, the current backdrop mostly stays put. JPMorgan likes names like Alphabet, ExxonMobil, and Home Depot, while others argue a divided government is great for Big Tech, since major new AI regulation becomes far less likely.

• 🔵 A Democratic flip: More support for clean energy and healthcare, but tougher scrutiny on AI data centers and the tech buildout. Potential winners include clean-energy plays like NextEra Energy and Xcel Energy.

• 🔴 A Republican hold: A friendlier setup for AI infrastructure, energy, nuclear, financials, and defense through deregulation. Think names like Lockheed Martin, UnitedHealth, and Bank of America.

The Munch Take: The single biggest takeaway isn't which party wins, it's that elections are almost never a reason to panic-sell. A 95% success rate over the following year is about as strong a historical signal as you'll find anywhere in markets. The noise around election night feels enormous in the moment, then fades into the background while stocks grind higher like they usually do. We're not rearranging our whole portfolio to bet on a political outcome nobody can reliably predict. We'd rather own quality businesses that do fine regardless of who's holding the gavel, and let the long-term trend do the heavy lifting. And hey, if the market does go sideways after Election Day, at least we'll finally have something other than the Fed to blame.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

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🚀 $SPCX SpaceX climbed 7.63% after Morgan Stanley turned bullish, arguing the stock looks cheap heading into some major upcoming milestones. With a Starship flight and the Roadster event on deck, analysts clearly see catalysts lining up.

🏦 $NU Nu Holdings surged 13.03% as Brazilian stocks rallied on Flávio Bolsonaro's surprise first-round election win, stoking hopes for more business-friendly policies. When politics shift pro-business, the big local banks tend to be first in line to benefit.

💉 $PCVX Vaxcyte soared 30.70% after its experimental pneumonia vaccine posted strong late-stage trial results.

🏍️ $HOG Harley-Davidson gained 6.68% after Citi upgraded it to Buy, pointing to improving retail sales and happier dealers. The stock has had a solid year but is down roughly 30% over the last 5 years.

💻 $INTC Intel fell 2.63% after Elon Musk confirmed he's in talks with TSMC for his new chip-making venture, raising fears Intel could face fresh competition. The last thing a struggling chipmaker wants is Musk muscling into its turf.

CHART OF THE DAY

🇪🇺 The Euro Just Hit A 17-Month Low & Europe Has A Problem

The euro has been taken to the woodshed this year, sinking to about $1.1161 against the U.S. dollar, its weakest level since May 2025. That's a 17-month low, and it marks four straight weeks of losses. When one of the world's most important currencies slides like this, it usually means something real is breaking underneath the surface. And in this case, there are a few things.

Here's the double whammy dragging the euro down. First, it's a Europe problem. France is drowning in debt worries, with its borrowing costs spiking to the highest level since 2002. The gap between French and German bond yields just had its biggest weekly jump in 17 years, which is exactly the kind of thing that stirs up ugly memories of the 2010s eurozone debt crisis. Pile on Spain suddenly calling a snap election for late November, and investors got spooked about political chaos spreading across the continent.

Second, and just as important, it's a U.S. dollar strength story. The greenback has been on an absolute tear, powered by those 24-year-high Treasury yields we keep writing about. High yields pull global money into the dollar, and that steamrolls currencies like the euro.

• 🇫🇷 France is the epicenter: Surging French bond yields are reviving fears the debt trouble could infect Italy and the rest of the bloc.

• 💵 The dollar is crushing everyone: This isn't just a euro story, the strong dollar is beating up currencies worldwide, including the Canadian loonie.

• ⚠️ $1.10 is the next test: Analysts warn the euro could easily shed another 2% if the bond market selloff keeps going.

The Munch Take: This is the same theme echoing across every corner of the market right now: when U.S. yields rip this high, the dollar becomes a wrecking ball and everything else bends to it. The euro's drop is part Europe's own mess and part America's magnetic pull on global cash. For traders, the signal is clear, keep both eyes on French bonds and U.S. yields, because those two charts are steering this entire currency story. For everyone else, your European vacation just got a bit cheaper, and your dollars are suddenly the strongest kid on the global playground.

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🥇 The $15 Gold Fund That Pays Up to $1,152/Month (Ad)

2. 🥳 This is major news for Bitcoin.

3. 🍟 McDonald’s just did something crazy.

4. 🍬 Raw sugar prices are soaring.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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