GM Lark Traders. This is Lark Digest, the trading newsletter that’s less volatile than the crypto markets these days (You see the 5% drop on BTC yesterday? Ouch).

I hope you dig the new format. Boxes just make everything better.

—Mr.Lark

On today’s menu:

• Inflation just won’t quit ❌ 

• Bitcoin surpasses Silver 📈 

• The ICT Cult gets mad at me 😬 

• The Bank of Canada humiliates itself 🇨🇦 

❌ INFLATION IS NOT GETTING BETTER

If you were hoping for groceries to get less expensive, keep dreaming.

In fact, prices are going even higher despite what the government has been promising (who trusts them anyway?)

That’s right, yesterday’s highly anticipated CPI report was ugly, and the market was pretty bipolar in its reaction.

This is actually huge because the #1 market driver right now is inflation and interest rates.

Let’s break it down like we’re 8.

1/ Worse Than Expected

Inflation was expected to come in at 3.1% but came in at 3.2%.

That’s worse than expected and higher than the 3.1% print we saw in January.

Not good.

2/ Higher Rates For Longer

This means there’s a smaller chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.

Remember, the Fed is aiming for 2% inflation and if we’re not dropping below 3%, they need to do something.

And that something is keeping rates higher for longer.

What does that mean for you and the market?

1. Things aren’t getting cheaper anytime soon - not your food or your rent. In fact, shelter costs climbed an insane 5.7% in February.

2. Risk assets like stocks and crypto might drop if the market no longer expects ~3 cuts this year.

Speaking of crypto…

📈 Bitcoin Surpasses Silver  

It’s only Wednesday, but for Bitcoin, it sure feels like Friday with all these good vibes.

Last week, for the first time ever, Bitcoin crossed $70,000. That means Bitcoin’s $1.4 trillion market cap is now bigger than:

1. Tesla

2. Meta

3. Berkshire Hathaway (sorry, Buffett)

4. And Silver

Why’s it been so crazy?

Bitcoin is now the eighth-largest asset in the world, and much of this has to do with the upcoming Bitcoin halving.

For those newer to Bitcoin, here’s how it works:

• There are 21 million Bitcoins that get released through what’s called mining.

  Every four years, the amount of Bitcoin that “miners” are rewarded is cut in half, creating further scarcity.

• The next halving is set to take place in roughly 35 days, on April 15th. This will reduce the Bitcoin reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC (yikes).

With demand increasing due to the new ETF approvals, this halving will further constrain supply, leading to a higher price.

Simple, right?

We’re only March, but this is already shaping up to be a historic year for Bitcoin, and we love it.

THE ICT CULT COMES FOR ME 😬 

A few days ago, I put out the following tweet:

With 158,000 views and over 200 comments, it’s safe to say that my innocent question wasn’t seen as so innocent by the ICT fans.

*For those unaware, ICT stands for Inner Circle Trader and is a trader with over 1 million subscribers on YouTube.*

This tweet and the comments brings up an interesting discussion that’s bigger than just ICT:

• What role do influencers and gurus have in this industry?

• How can you know who to trust?

• Is making more money from teaching than trading wrong?

Here are some interesting ones.

1/ The Most Liked Comment

This was the most liked comment.

I agree. If you’re making $30,000 a month, you don’t need to work.

But if the goal is to assess if somebody is worth learning from, how do we know for a fact that “he’s turned hundreds into profitable traders”?

It’s a tough thing to verify.

2/ How do we measure success?

This was another comment that I see a lot in this industry.

When I first started trading, I also measured a trader’s success based on their lifestyle.

Their car. Their watch. Their house.

And boy, was that a mistake.

I think the overall sentiment of “They must be a good trader; look at what they have” is terrible because they could be funding that from sources outside of trading.

Like courses.

Let’s focus on trading metrics. Not lifestyle.

3/ The Robbins Cup

Apparently, ICT will be competing in a trading competition known as the Robbins Cup.

This will be interesting and is something that the whole community will be watching closely.

4/ My Takeaway

• There’s absolutely nothing wrong with selling a course. But if ICT’s strategy is so amazing that ~20% of the trading community is using it, wouldn’t most of his money come from trading?

• Measuring a trader’s success based on their lifestyle is a recipe for disaster.

• Saying X influencer has created hundreds or dozens of profitable traders is difficult to verify. Don’t believe what you see on social media.

• I look forward to the Robbin’s Cup!

🇨🇦 The Bank of Canada Is Officially A Joke

Take a look at this tweet from the Bank of Canada.

What’s the right answer to the poll?

There isn’t one.

The right answer is that it’s still inflation.

It’s absolutely insane to see such a comment from the Bank of Canada when so many Canadians are still struggling with the rising cost of living.

Wild.

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