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📉 Jobs Ignored, Meta Finally Learns
Pip Munch
December 05, 2025
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On today’s menu:
📉 Jobs Ignored, Meta Finally Learns
🎯 The Market's Stuck Between Bubble Fear and Rate Cut Hope
🚗 Microsoft Raises Prices & Amazon’s 30-Minute Delivery
👀 Central Banks Are Starting To Buy More Gold
🇮🇳 FTMO Is Available In India Again
Yesterday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,857 | +0.11% |
Nasdaq | 23,505 | +0.22% |
Dow Jones | 47,850 | -0.06% |
Bitcoin | $92,455 | +0.36% |
BREAKING NEWS
📊 Jobs Report Ignored, All Eyes on Fed Decision
Weekly jobless claims just hit 191,000—the lowest level in more than three years. Normally that would dominate headlines and send markets into celebration mode.
Instead? The market basically shrugged and went back to obsessing over next week's Fed decision.
Why Nobody Cares About Good Jobs Data:
Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a rate cut next Wednesday, according to CME FedWatch. At this point, traders have moved past the "will they cut?" question and are now fixating on "how many more cuts are coming in 2026?"
Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion, summed it up perfectly: "The big news is the 25 basis point rate cut, but that's been so widely telegraphed, I'd be shocked if we didn't get it. The market expects it. So, maybe after a great 11 months and some consolidating, we're into marking time, maybe even into year-end, and then we'll see how 2026 kicks off."
Translation? The rate cut is a done deal. The drama is what comes after.
Meanwhile, Layoffs Are Piling Up:
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that announced job cuts moved past 1 million for the year as corporate restructuring, AI automation, and tariffs crushed hiring. So yes, jobless claims are low now, but the forward-looking picture isn't exactly rosy.
The Munch Take: The jobs market is starting to crack. The Fed will cut next week—that's priced in. What matters now is whether Powell signals more cuts ahead or starts pumping the brakes. If he hints at pausing, expect volatility.
🥽 Meta Finally Realizes the Metaverse Was a Terrible Idea
Meta shares popped 4% yesterday after Bloomberg reported that CEO Mark Zuckerberg is considering budget cuts as high as 30% for the company's metaverse unit, with layoffs potentially incoming.
This is fantastic news.
Meta's Reality Labs division—the one building VR headsets nobody asked for—has recorded over $70 billion in cumulative losses since late 2020. That's not a typo. Seventy. Billion. Dollars. burned on a product that makes people nauseous and socially awkward.
Why This Matters:
The metaverse has been about as useful as my wife's suggestion that going to Target on my day off would be a "bonding experience." Nobody wanted it, nobody asked for it, and it cost way too much money.
Zuckerberg reportedly said back in the day that "the metaverse is the next frontier just like social networking was when we got started." Except social networking didn't require people to strap uncomfortable goggles to their face and pretend they're in a cartoon boardroom.
The proposed cuts would likely include layoffs and are part of budget planning for 2026. Meta declined to comment, but the stock rallied anyway because investors are thrilled Zuck might finally kill this money incinerator.
The Munch Take: Cutting the metaverse budget is the smartest thing Meta's done in years. Investors are rewarding fiscal sanity. If they actually follow through and reallocate that capital to AI (where they're actually competitive), this could be massively bullish for the stock long-term.
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BIG PICTURE
🎯 The Market's Stuck Between Bubble Fear and Rate Cut Hope
Right now the market's trapped in an exhausting tug-of-war: AI bubble fears on one side, hopes of a Fed rate cut next week on the other.
Nobody knows which side wins.
What's Got Everyone on Edge:
This Friday we get the PCE report—the Fed's favorite inflation gauge and the first reading since the government shutdown-induced blackout. It's basically our first real look at the economy's health in weeks, and markets are holding their breath.
Here's the anxiety: The market knows rate cuts are coming (92% odds for December 10th), but doesn't know how many or how fast. Add to that the lingering question of whether the AI bubble is about to pop or keep ripping for years, and you've got traders paralyzed between FOMO and panic.
The Playbook Right Now:
At Munch, we bought the Bitcoin dip over the last few weeks but we're sitting on the sidelines now. The strategy? Have enough in the market that if it rips, we win. Keep enough cash that if it drops, we can buy at great prices and also win.
It's the "heads I win, tails I don't lose too badly" approach—which is about as sophisticated as our investment thesis gets.
What Traders Should Watch:
Friday's PCE report: If inflation comes in hotter than expected, rate cut bets collapse and risk assets get crushed
December 10th Fed decision: Cut is priced in, but watch the language—dovish = bullish, hawkish = chaos
AI earnings season: Companies need to show actual revenue, not just promises
The Munch Take: Markets hate uncertainty, and right now we're swimming in it. Play it smart—don't go all-in on either direction. This is survival mode, not hero mode. Wait for clarity, then deploy capital aggressively when the picture sharpens.
Until then? Tight stops, smaller size, and maybe a stress nap.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
$MSFT Microsoft is jacking up prices on commercial Office subscriptions in July. At this point, if you're still paying for Office instead of using Google Workspace, that's a personal decision we can't help you with. You're basically volunteering to get fleeced.
$KR Kroger's stock is going stale—down over 4% yesterday and basically flat for the year. They beat earnings but missed on sales, which is like winning the participation trophy. Same-store sales jumped 2.6% but total revenue somehow dropped 0.9%. Math isn't mathing.
$ORCL Morgan Stanley just casually mentioned that Oracle's debt levels are approaching 2008 financial crisis territory. Maybe their new ticker should be $HELP. Despite this minor detail of potentially catastrophic leverage, they're still up 29% YTD because markets make total sense.
$AMZN Amazon started rolling out 30-minute delivery in Seattle and Philadelphia. So now you can impulse-buy things you don't need and regret it in half an hour instead of two days. Progress.
$PVH Margins are getting tighter than your jeans after Thanksgiving—just ask Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein. Their parent company PVH Corp crashed 11.87% despite beating earnings as tariff pressure absolutely crushed their margins. Turns out trade wars aren't actually easy to win.
🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
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