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📉 Big Week
Pip Munch
December 08, 2025
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☕️ GM Munchers! My wife saw me checking my portfolio 47 times this weekend and asked if I'm addicted—I said "no, I just like pain" and she scheduled me a therapist.
On today’s menu:
📉 Inflation Sticky, Netflix Buys, Fed Wednesday
🚨 The Labour Market Narrative Is Getting Dark
🤑 Walmart Is About To Join The Trillionaires Club
😬 Is Warren Buffett Falling Behind The S&P 500?
🇨🇳 China Just Bought More Gold
Friday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,870 | +0.19% |
Nasdaq | 23,578 | +0.31% |
Dow Jones | 47,954 | +0.22% |
Bitcoin | $89,350 | +0.10% |
BREAKING NEWS
📊 Inflation Still Hot, Fed's 2% Target Looking Like a Fantasy
Friday's PCE inflation report confirmed what we already knew: inflation isn't going anywhere fast.
The Numbers:
Core PCE came in at 2.8% annually, with a 0.2% monthly rise. Both matched expectations, which is why the market barely flinched.
But here's the elephant: 2.8% is still well above the Fed's 2% target, and that 2% goal is about as realistic as my wife believing I'll "just browse" at Home Depot without buying anything.
The Harsh Reality:
Sub-2% inflation is dead. It's only a matter of time before the Fed quietly shifts their target to 3% and pretends that was the plan all along.
Personal income rose 0.4% while spending climbed 0.3%—consumers keep spending despite prices. Michigan consumer sentiment hit 53.3, up 4.5% from November, so people feel better even if their wallets don't.
The Munch Take: The Fed will cut rates Wednesday regardless—that's locked in. But if inflation stays above 2.5%, don't expect aggressive easing in 2026. Powell's path is narrow, and markets are betting he fumbles it.
🎬 Netflix Buys Warner Bros for $72 Billion (Stock Promptly Tanks)
Netflix announced Friday they're acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery's film studio and streaming assets (HBO Max) for $72 billion, ending a dramatic bidding war that saw Paramount and Comcast also competing.
The Deal:
Netflix gets Warner Bros.' legendary film library (Harry Potter, DC Universe, Wizard of Oz) plus HBO Max content (The Sopranos, Game of Thrones). Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders get $23.25 cash and $4.50 in Netflix stock per share.
The acquisition is expected to close in 12-18 months.
The Market's Reaction:
Netflix stock dropped almost 3% on the news and is now trading at its lowest level since April. Despite being up 13% YTD, investors are clearly nervous about Netflix becoming a buyer instead of a builder.
Ted Sarandos, Netflix co-CEO, said: "Over the years, we have been known to be builders, not buyers." Which makes this acquisition feel like a massive strategic shift—and the market isn't sure it likes it.
The Munch Take:
This is Netflix admitting they can't organically create enough content to compete long-term. Buying Warner Bros. gives them instant scale, but it also saddles them with massive debt and integration risk. If you're holding Netflix, watch how this plays out—it's either genius or a $72 billion mistake.
📅 This Week: All Eyes on the Fed (And Powell's Word Choice)
This week is stacked with market-moving events, but Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision is the main event.
Key Events:
Tuesday: September JOLTS Job Openings data
Wednesday: Fed rate decision + Powell press conference
Thursday: OPEC Monthly Report, Initial Jobless Claims, US 30Y Bond Auction
What Everyone's Waiting For:
The 25 bps rate cut is a guarantee at this point—odds are sitting at 87.2% according to CME FedWatch. But the cut itself doesn't matter anymore.
What matters is Powell's language about 2026.
If he signals uncertainty about how many cuts are coming next year, expect a selloff. The recent rally has been the market front-running this rate cut. It's a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" setup (at least that's what our intern keeps telling us, and honestly, he might be right for once).
The Munch Take:
The cut is priced in. The drama is what Powell says after the cut. If he sounds dovish and hints at more easing ahead, risk assets rip. If he pumps the brakes and talks about "data dependency" and "patience," expect volatility. Trade accordingly.
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BIG PICTURE
🚨 The Labour Market Narrative Is Getting Dark (But Don't Panic Yet)
Prediction markets claim US layoffs will "surpass the Great Recession" and approach "Great Depression" levels.
Here's the reality: No major data provider (BLS, Challenger, large banks) is confirming this. The "worst since Great Depression" language is sensational marketing, not vetted statistics.
What IS Happening:
Corporate layoffs hit 1.17 million through November 2025, the highest since 2020. October saw over 150,000 announced cuts, the highest monthly total in 20+ years.
The nuance? While raw numbers approach 2009 levels, they're a smaller share of total employment (roughly three-quarters of Great Recession proportion). The labour market is cooling, not collapsing—yet.
Why This Matters:
Remember our Sunday email? You're not trading EUR/USD—you're trading sentiment. US Consumer Sentiment just fell to an all-time low, possibly the worst since the 1930s.
If consumer confidence collapses, spending contracts, earnings crater, and markets get ugly fast.
The Munch Take:
The labour market is cracking. Layoffs are real. Sentiment is tanking. But cans get kicked for years before anything breaks. We're staying aware without letting fear dictate decisions.
Time in the market beats timing the market. Stay invested, diversified, and stop doomscrolling.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
$LUV The Trump administration just waived an $11 million fine for Southwest Airlines after their infamous 2022 meltdown that stranded 2 million customers. Nothing says "accountability" like erasing consequences. The stock's up 13% YTD anyway, so apparently chaos is priced in.
$WMT Walmart is now less than $100 billion away from joining the exclusive $1 trillion market cap club. They're up 28% YTD because turns out selling stuff people actually need during uncertain times is a solid business model. Revolutionary.
$MRNA Moderna surged almost 9% after securing a new $1.5 billion loan. So taking on massive debt is bullish now? I guess when there's no global pandemic to profit from, you pivot to leveraging yourself to the moon. What could go wrong?
$DG Dollar General has been absolutely crushing it—up over 5% Friday and 75% YTD. When the consumer cracks, apparently the dollar store becomes the hottest destination in town. Forget luxury—discounted toilet paper is the new flex.
🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
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