๐Ÿ“ˆ Major Jobs Report Incoming

$1.52 to $3.36 in a single weekend

Millionaire trader Tim Sykes bought CAST at $1.52 on a Friday afternoon after real news broke. He sold Monday at $3.36, a 121% gain, timestamped on his verified Profit.ly account. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This Labor Day weekend, his full training is $1.

Click here to see the strategy behind it.

โ˜•๏ธ GM Munchers! It's Friday, which means I need to start rehearsing my fake cough now so it sounds believable enough to skip the in-laws on Sunday. Wish me luck.

On todayโ€™s menu:

  • ๐Ÿ“† Big Rip, Bigger Report

  • ๐Ÿ‘™ Victoria's Secret Fell Hard Despite Crushing Profits

  • ๐Ÿง˜ Tesla, Meta & Lululemon

  • ๐Ÿค‘ Bitcoin Ripped To $81K And Torched The Bears

  • ๐Ÿš€ SpaceX Just Had A Crazy Day

Yesterdayโ€™s numbers:

S&P 500

7,747

+1.06%

Nasdaq

26,584

+1.40%

Dow Jones

53,686

+1.18%

Bitcoin

~$81,400

+5.35%

BREAKING NEWS

๐Ÿ“… Stocks Ripped, But This Morning's Jobs Report Is The Real Test

The market strutted into September like a guy who forgot the whole month has a history of humbling him. Stocks ripped higher and two things did the heavy lifting. First, bond yields kept falling after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled he'd support holding rates steady if inflation keeps cooling. Second, Vice President JD Vance publicly called for the Fed to cut rates, saying it would help Americans afford homes and adding that "it would be nice to have some help." More political pressure for lower rates never hurts stocks.

Here's what actually matters this morning. The August jobs report, formally called nonfarm payrolls, drops before the market opens, and it's the last major piece of data before the Fed's September 16 meeting. Economists expect a weak number, around 45,000 new jobs. In today's upside-down market, weak jobs data is actually good news for stocks, because a softer labor market gives the Fed a reason to cut rates instead of hiking them.

  • ๐Ÿ“Š The number to watch: Roughly 45,000 new jobs is expected. A big miss below that boosts rate-cut hopes fast.

  • ๐ŸŽฏ Why it matters: This is the final major data point before the Fed decides on September 16.

  • โš–๏ธ The setup: Hike odds already fell to about 50%, so a soft report could tip the Fed toward standing pat, or even cutting.

The Munch Take: It's a strange world when bad jobs news makes stocks happy, but that's exactly the setup heading into this morning. Watch that payrolls number closely, because it carries more weight than anything else next week.

The 65-hour window Wall Street leaves wide open (Ad)

Every Friday at 4 PM Eastern, Wall Street's biggest players leave the market.

Fund managers, bank traders, billion-dollar accounts, gone until Monday.

The news doesn't leave with them.

Millionaire trader Tim Sykes calls this the Weekend Gap: the window when institutional money is gone but small-cap news keeps breaking.

This week it's wider.

Monday is Labor Day, the market stays shut, and the gap doesn't reopen until Tuesday.

Tim built a 25-year strategy around this window.

One decision Friday. One decision when the market reopens.

His full training is $1 through the holiday.

STOCK OF THE DAY

๐Ÿ‘™ Victoria's Secret Fell Hard Despite Crushing Profits

The Victoria's Secret fashion show is back, and while the guys are thrilled, shareholders got a cold shower yesterday.

$VSXY sank 13.17% after a quarter that looked great on the surface but spooked investors anyways. Revenue rose 10% to $1.61 billion, just barely missing the $1.62 billion Wall Street wanted, while adjusted earnings of $0.95 a share blew past the $0.75 expected. So why the crash? A minor sales miss plus soft profit guidance for was enough to trigger heavy profit-taking, and this stock had a lot of profit to take.

But you know whatโ€™s crazy? Even after this drop, Victoria's Secret is still up 38% year to date and a staggering 220% over the past year. If you had put $100,000 into the stock the day it announced the fashion show was coming back, you'd be sitting on roughly $400,000 today. That's the kind of comeback story that turns a written-off brand into a market darling.

๐Ÿ“ˆ The Bull Case:

  • The turnaround is real, with comparable sales up 9%, adjusted gross margin expanding sharply, and management raising full-year guidance.

  • International sales jumped 20%, led by China and Europe.

  • The fashion show returns this month, and its last comeback proved these marketing moments can drive genuine sales heat.

๐Ÿ“‰ The Bear Case:

  • Q2's giant profit beat was heavily boosted by over $140 million in one-time tariff refunds, which flatters the numbers and won't repeat.

  • Weak current-quarter profit guidance suggests the underlying business isn't as strong as the headline earnings made it look.

  • After a 220% one-year run, expectations are sky-high, and even a tiny miss now triggers a violent reaction.

The Munch Take: Here's our honest call: we're not buyers here. The turnaround is genuinely impressive and the brand heat is real, but a 220% run in a year, propped up by a one-time tariff refund and now flashing soft profit guidance, is exactly the setup where the easy money has already been made. When a stock this stretched punishes a great earnings report, that tells you expectations got ahead of the business. Weโ€™ll wait for a pullback to around $60 where thereโ€™s some support.

MARKET OVERVIEW

๐Ÿฟ Tasty Movers & Shakers

๐Ÿš— $TSLA Tesla rallied 5.42% ahead of a robotaxi event in Austin, where the company is set to welcome its first public riders in the steering-wheel-free Cybercab. Nothing gets this stock moving like a shiny autonomous milestone.

๐Ÿค– $META Meta climbed 3.01% after launching its new Muse Spark 1.3 AI model. In this market, a fresh AI release is basically a cheat code for a green day.

๐Ÿ’ป $DELL Dell extended its huge run with another 4.63% gain after its earnings beat and raised outlook kept AI server excitement alive.

๐Ÿช™ $HOOD Robinhood jumped 16.57% after a pair of analyst upgrades pointed to its growing menu of financial products. The little trading app keeps proving it's turning into something much bigger.

๐Ÿฅฉ $TSN Tyson Foods fell 7.26% after cutting its full-year outlook, with ongoing weakness in its beef business dragging down results.

๐Ÿง˜ $LULU Lululemon crashed over 20% after-hours on disappointing earnings and a weak outlook, and it's now down over 40% this year. Guess women are realizing leggings made from oil might not be the healthiest thing to wear.

CHART OF THE DAY

๐Ÿค‘ Bitcoin Ripped To $81K And Torched The Bears

Bitcoin is walking into September like a freshman with a fake ID and way too much confidence. Yesterday it climbed over 5% to touch $81,000 and wiped out five straight days of losses in just a few hours. The move was so fast it liquidated roughly $140 million in short positions in just 60 minutes, and over $400 million across the day. It was a classic short squeeze and it was violent.

So, what happened? With so many short sellers hoping the price would fall, after Bitcoin moved higher, those bets went underwater fast and the exchanges force-closed them by buying Bitcoin at market price. That forced buying pushed the price up even more, which triggered even more shorts to blow up, and the whole thing snowballed into rocket fuel.

The spark behind it was the Fed. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd be inclined to support holding rates steady if inflation keeps cooling. That single comment dropped the odds of a September rate hike from about 63% to roughly 43%, and risk assets like Bitcoin took off. Over $1 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs across the week too, adding real institutional fuel on top of the squeeze.

The Munch Take: We've been bullish on Bitcoin nearly every single day, and this is a lovely way to end the week. Hats off to anyone who held through the June bloodbath and the recent chop with us. We never got the $70,000 retest we were watching for, and that's completely fine. We've been buying steadily for months, so we're more than happy to just ride the wave from here.

๐Ÿช Munchy Memes

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