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☕️ GM Munchers! Yesterday’s price action looked like the market checked its bank account after a night out. Pure panic. Let’s unpack the chaos.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 Market Tanks, Thiel Sells & Trump Promises $2K Checks

• 🥇Gold Vs Bitcoin. What’s Going On?

• 🚀 Buffett Buys So Google Flies

• 📆 Tim Cook Is Stepping Down In 2026

• 🍿 There’s Drama In The Futures Prop Firm Industry

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📉 Odds of “No Rate Cut” Surge to 53%

Turns out the Fed might not cut rates in December after all… and traders reacted with the same emotional stability I show when my wife asks, “Do you think the sauna was a necessary purchase?”

Here’s the deal: Polymarket now shows a 53% chance of no rate cut in December — the first time that “no change” beats the odds of a 25 bps cut.

Just weeks ago? A cut was sitting pretty in the 90%+ range.

Translation?
The market went from “rate cuts for Christmas!” to “Santa isn’t real and neither is disinflation.”

And the unwind has been vicious:

• Huge deleveraging across risk assets yesterday

• Bitcoin dumped below $92K

• Everyone is staring at economic data like it owes them money

The market is now waiting for the two big catalysts this week:

• Nvidia earnings on Wednesday

• The first real jobs report since the government shutdown

If either comes in hot, traders will price in “higher for longer” even harder.

The Munch Take

This is classic risk-off:

• Dollars defensive

• Equities shaky

• Crypto bleeding

• My confidence in predicting the Fed? Already in a recession.

Until we see softening inflation or a weak jobs print, expect volatility spikes and fragile sentiment. Don’t get cute — get patient.

🤖 Peter Thiel Sells His Nvidia Position

New regulatory filings show Peter Thiel’s hedge fund sold its entire Nvidia stake (~537,742 shares worth about $100M) in Q3.
He also trimmed Tesla.

What’s left? Apple, Microsoft, Tesla as his main positions.

Why does this matter?
Because Thiel is one of those investors the market watches like he’s the cool kid at school — if he switches lunch tables, everyone else starts reconsidering their life choices.

This move adds fuel to the “AI bubble?” debate. Nvidia reports this week, and the timing is… interesting.

The Munch Take

This doesn’t mean “short Nvidia.”
It means:

• Smart money is de-risking

• AI isn’t a straight line

• Sentiment is fragile heading into earnings

Traders will treat Nvidia’s report like gospel. One miss and tech momentum gets nuked. One beat and everyone pretends this never happened.

💸 Trump Promises $2,000 Tariff Stimulus Checks (…Eventually)

President Trump says $2,000 tariff stimulus checks will go out by “mid-2026.”

Let’s be real: this is a midterm play, not a fiscal plan. And Polymarket agrees — only a 12% chance it happens by March 31. Frankly, my odds of correctly predicting my wife’s mood are lower than that, and I’m with her every day.

But if these checks ever hit mailboxes?
We already know the script. In 2021, stimmies sent risk assets into orbit. This would be the same, just with more tariffs and fewer surprises.

The Munch Take

Markets see this as political noise for now.
But if odds climb, expect:

• A risk-on pop

• Crypto leading the charge

• Consumers spending like it’s 2021 again

• Inflation looking at us like, “Really?”

If this stays a meme, ignore it.
If the odds jump, trade it.

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CRYPTO & COMMODITIES

🥇 Gold = +53% YTD. 🥀 Bitcoin = -1% YTD. What’s Going On?

Gold and Bitcoin are supposed to be the two superheroes of “alternative assets.”
But in 2025, one of them is flying and the other is face-planting.

Gold is up +53% YTD — an insane return for something normally treated like a sleepy safe haven. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has officially erased all of its 2025 gains and is now down 1% on the year, sitting around $92K.

And the sentiment gap is getting worse: Polymarket now shows a 28% chance Bitcoin crashes below $80K this year. That’s not a tail risk — that’s real fear.

Why the Split?

Gold is doing what gold does best: acting as the world’s safety blanket when everyone’s freaked out about inflation, geopolitics, and policy misfires.
It thrives on uncertainty.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is trading like a full-blown risk asset again.
Which means:

• When markets deleverage, it bleeds

• When inflation expectations rise, it gets shaky

• When liquidity tightens, it gets smoked

And with the Fed suddenly leaning toward no December rate cut, risk appetite has evaporated. BTC is catching those punches directly in the jaw.

The Sentiment Angle

Gold is benefiting from consistent demand — investors, funds, and even central banks.
Bitcoin is stuck in a loop of volatility, ETF outflows, and macro anxiety.

The current psychological setup is simple:
Gold = safety.
Bitcoin = uncertainty.

The Munch Take

If markets stay nervous, gold keeps shining.
If we get a surprise wave of liquidity or positive data, Bitcoin can flip fast — but until then, traders are treating it like the asset you dump first when the room starts shaking.

Risk-off season is here, and gold is the teacher’s pet. Bitcoin? It’s sitting in detention.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

$GOOGL
Google had itself a day, ripping nearly 5% after Warren Buffett revealed he bought in. It’s now Berkshire’s 10th-largest position — proving once again that when Grandpa Warren blesses a stock, everyone suddenly remembers they “always liked the fundamentals.”

$NVO
Novo Nordisk just slashed Ozempic’s price to $349/month (down from $500), and they’re offering $199/month for the first two months if you start on the baby dose. Classic drug dealer energy: “First one’s cheap, kid… then we talk.”

$FORD
Ford announced a new partnership with Amazon that lets dealers sell used vehicles directly on the platform. You can secure financing, start paperwork, and schedule pickup online. Translation: Ford saw how Elon sells cars and said, “Yeah… we’ll take that.”

$AAPL
Financial Times says Tim Cook is planning to step down as Apple CEO next year. Hopefully the next person brings back innovation — or at least stops releasing the same iPhone with slightly different vibes.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Tuesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🍿 There’s drama in the futures prop firm industry.

2. 🇨🇳 There’s problems in the Chinese real estate market.

3. 🤯 Michael Saylor just bought another $800 million of Bitcoin.

4. 😬 Japan’s bond yields are doing some scary things.

5. 😭 Ethereum fell below $3,000 for the first time since July.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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