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📈 Markets Rally Even as Middle East Ceasefire Blows Up

The largest drawdown in the prop firm industry? Lark Funding now holds the title with a maximum drawdown of 12% and an 8% Phase-1 target.

☕️ GM Munchers! I was explaining Powell’s inflation stance to my wife, and she said, “So basically he’s doing nothing—like you when I ask for help with the laundry.”

On today’s menu:

  • 📈 Trump Gets Angry, Markets Rally & Oil Crashes

  • 🥇 The Largest Drawdown In The Prop Firm Industry

  • 📉 The Fed's About to Cut—And Everyone Knows It

  • 👀 Insider Trading At Nvidia?

  • 😬 The Housing Market Is Cooling Off

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500

6,092

+1.11%

Nasdaq

19,912

+1.43%

Dow Jones

43,089

+1.19%

Bitcoin

$105,579

+0.13%

BREAKING NEWS

📈 Markets Rally Even as Middle East Ceasefire Blows Up

Apparently, markets looked at Trump yelling “they don’t know what the f*** they’re doing” and said: bullish.

On Tuesday, Israel and Iran broke their fresh ceasefire—again. There were missile strikes, blame games, and Trump doing his best referee impersonation while cussing out both teams like a furious soccer dad.

And yet?

  • Dow: +512 pts (+1.1%)

  • S&P 500: +1.1%

  • Nasdaq: +1.5%

Translation? Traders basically said: "Middle East tensions? Been there. Bombed that."

Why it matters:
Markets shrugged off geopolitics and priced in the idea that the U.S. won’t escalate, oil won’t spike, and Powell won’t be spooked. Risk-on vibes won the day.

What to watch next:

  • Tech & airlines for strength (oil falling = happy Delta)

  • Safe havens like gold to fade a bit

  • EMFX (e.g. Turkish lira, Israeli shekel) to stay volatile as the region stays on edge

Also, someone please tell the Middle East to stop dropping headlines faster than our stop-losses.

🛢️ Oil Gets Slapped (Again) — Down 6%

Oil just had its worst two-day stretch in months, diving another 6% on Tuesday after a 7% drop Monday.

The why: Despite the ceasefire teetering, markets bet that the U.S. and Iran are both more bark than bite. Supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz haven’t been touched, and Trump literally told China to go ahead and keep buying Iranian oil.

Quick stats:

  • WTI crude: $64.37/barrel (-6%)

  • Brent: $67.14/barrel (-6.1%)

  • Two-day loss: -13%

Why it matters:
Falling oil = relief for inflation and transportation. Airlines rallied. So did my Uber driver who’s been muttering about gas prices since February.

What to watch next:

  • Energy stocks could stay under pressure

  • Watch if oil stabilizes at $60–$64

  • Commodities traders: This is your Superbowl

Or as my wife says whenever I try to explain this: "So prices go down, and you still lose money?"

🧊 Powell Keeps Cool While Trump Ramps Up

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke to Congress and somehow didn’t throw his chair through a wall despite Trump bashing him again on Truth Social. (“Hardheaded dumb person,” said the former President, lovingly.)

Here’s the deal:

  • Powell said inflation’s still too hot, likely ticking up to 2.3% headline and 2.6% core in May

  • The Fed is “in no rush” to cut rates

  • Tariffs are still a wildcard—they’re watching to see if they stoke inflation again

Why it matters:
More patience = fewer rate cuts. Markets seem fine with it for now, but high inflation and Trump tantrums are still wildcards.

What to watch next:

  • FOMC minutes in July

  • Inflation prints

  • Any tweet with Trump + Powell + the word “moron”

BROUGHT TO YOU BY

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That drops the cost of a $100K challenge to just $425.

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👉 LarkFunding.com — this is the best time to take your shot.

FOREX

📉 The Fed's About to Cut—And Everyone Knows It

According to CME FedWatch, the odds of a rate cut by the Fed’s September meeting just jumped to 79%. That’s up from 66% a week ago—and markets are moving like it’s already a done deal.

Translation?

Smart money is front-running the pivot. Stocks love rate cuts. Currencies? Not so much. A cut weakens the dollar and gives risk assets more room to run (especially if you’ve been getting smoked shorting NVDA and lying to your wife about it).

Why markets care:

  • Rate cuts = cheaper borrowing = corporate earnings boost

  • USD gets weaker → helps commodities, hurts USD pairs

  • Higher probability of “soft landing” = bullish for equities

  • It’s not if it happens… it’s how much is already priced in

What to watch next:

  • DXY trends → continued downside = room for gold, oil, and crypto upside

  • S&P 500 strength → a strong rally before September = risk of “sell the news”

  • Fed speak → any signal they walk back expectations could unwind this move fast

Final thought:
If you’re just waiting for the actual rate cut to make your move, congrats—you’re already behind. Markets price in expectations, not headlines. Learn that lesson or enjoy losing money while telling your wife “it’s all part of the plan.”

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

$COIN ( ▼ 1.52% ) Coinbase just pumped +12% and is now up 34% in the last 5 days. Did we call this months ago? Yes. Did our wife roll her eyes when we said “this is the future of money”? Also yes. The reason for the rally? Pure vibes and no SEC headlines (yet).

$NVDA ( ▲ 4.04% ) The CEO of Nvidia dumped $20.2M in shares. Could be insider knowledge. Could be he’s just sick of pretending he likes his 4th vacation home. Either way, not exactly the bullish signal we were hoping for.

$UNH ( ▼ 2.95% ) UnitedHealth is down 40% YTD, has a P/E under 13, and insiders are quietly buying. Translation? The kind of chart that makes us forget we said we were “done bottom fishing forever.”

$MA ( ▼ 0.48% ) Mastercard just partnered with Chainlink so their 3 billion cardholders can buy crypto on-chain. It's giving: “bull market’s back and your grandma’s gonna buy ETH.”

$GOOGL ( ▲ 0.24% ) Google’s been on a 7-year buyback bender and just shrunk their float back to 2006 levels. Fewer shares = more juice for the ones left. Cool stat, better chart.

PROP FIRMS

🤑 Wednesday Motivation

🍪 Munchy Memes

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