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  • 📉 Michael Burry Doesn’t Like SpaceX

📉 Michael Burry Doesn’t Like SpaceX

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On today’s menu:

  • 🏦 D-Day For The Fed: Here's Everything To Watch Today

  • 👀 Michael Burry Doesn’t Like SpaceX

  • 👕 Gildan & Dave & Buster's Get Crushed

  • 🤯 The Greatest Investor of All-Time Is In Jail?

  • 🥳 2026 Recession Odds Hit a New All-Time Low

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500

7,511

-0.57%

Nasdaq

26,376

-1.15%

Dow Jones

51,999

+0.64%

Bitcoin

~65,800

-0.75%

BREAKING NEWS

🏦 D-Day For The Fed: Here's Everything To Watch Today

Today is the big one. The Fed announces its rate decision at 2:00 PM and it’s Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. Nobody expects a rate change but that doesn’t mean there won’t be drama.

Yesterday gave us a preview of how jumpy this market is. U.S. oil dropped 7% in a single day, falling below $76 a barrel, as an Iran deal moved closer to being finalized, with Tehran seeking sanctions relief in exchange for ending the conflict. Cheaper oil usually means cooler inflation, which is exactly why everyone is watching the Fed today.

Stocks dipped yesterday too, except the Dow, which closed at a fresh record high. Nothing alarming there. Traders were simply locking in gains before a meeting this big.

So what actually matters today? Three things.

  • Watch the dot plot. It shows where Fed officials expect rates heading for the rest of the year.

  • Watch the tone shift. Strategists expect the Fed to move from leaning toward cuts to a flat, neutral stance.

  • Watch Warsh himself. He has hinted he wants to run the Fed differently than Powell did, and today is the first real test of that style.

The Munch Take: The rate number today is basically decided already. What traders actually care about is whether Warsh sounds like a calm reformer or someone about to shake the table. My wife asked if the Fed meeting affects her online shopping budget. I said kind of, eventually, in a roundabout way. She bought three candles anyway. Bold strategy.

👀 Michael Burry Wanted To Bet Against SpaceX. Then He Looked At The Price Tag

$SPCX Michael Burry, the guy who famously predicted the 2008 housing crash, took a long look at SpaceX. He liked the bet. But not in the direction that you might think.

Burry thinks SpaceX is so overvalued that he actively looked into shorting it. His plan was a put option where you pay a small fee upfront for the right to sell a stock at a set price later. If the stock crashes, the bet pays off big. If it doesn't, you just lose what you paid.

He specifically looked at a put option betting SpaceX falls below $100 a share by December 2028, while the stock has traded as high as $212. The problem? That bet would cost about $25 per contract, which is incredibly expensive for an option. The stock would need to fall more than 50% just for the bet to break even. Most bearish bets on calmer stocks cost a few cents to a couple dollars, because nobody expects a wild swing. A $25 price tag means traders already think SpaceX is unstable enough to crash that hard, so betting against it costs like flood insurance on a house that's already underwater.

  • Burry called SpaceX "fundamentally a small space company, a niche telecom, a bedeviled social media company, and a Coreweave-light" pulling in less than $20 billion a year.

  • He pointed out that SpaceX's value has now blown past Berkshire Hathaway, a company built over two lifetimes by two of the greatest investors ever.

  • Even though he’s skeptical, Burry confirmed he currently holds no position either way, saying he is "neither short nor, ahem, long."

The Munch Take: We agree with Burry on this one, plain and simple. SpaceX just passed Amazon's $2.65 trillion valuation while bringing in $18 billion in revenue compared to Amazon's $720 billion. That is not a typo. That is a company worth more than Amazon while making a fraction of the money. Frothy is the nice word for it.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

📈 $JPM JPMorgan ripped 3.68% as easing inflation worries and falling oil prices lit a fire under financial stocks. Investors also liked what they heard about the bank's European digital-banking expansion. Nothing makes Wall Street happier than cheaper gas and a bank quietly expanding into a new continent.

🧠 $MU Micron Technology slipped 6.18% off its record high as investors decided yesterday's party was over and cashed in their chips. This happened despite bullish analyst commentary sticking around. Even good news can't stop people from taking profits after a run that hot. Nothing wrong with that.

👕 $GIL Gildan Activewear got crushed, falling 18.77% after a short-seller report took aim at the company's growth numbers and sales practices. We have zero opinion on the stock. We do have an opinion on the t-shirts. They're thick, they hold up, and the price is right. Some of us shop with our hands, not our portfolios.

🎮 $PLAY Dave & Buster's slid 6.25% as weaker profit and falling same-store sales dragged down first-quarter results. Honestly this one might be on my wife. I beat her so badly at skee-ball last time we went that I would not be shocked if she opened a short position out of pure spite.

✈️ $LUV Southwest Airlines climbed 2.90% after Jefferies raised its price target, pointing to the airline's improving cabin segmentation. Translation: they're finally figuring out how to charge you for the seat you actually want.

STOCK OF THE DAY

🤯 The Greatest Investor of All-Time Is In Jail?

A wild claim is making the rounds online. The pitch: Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced founder of FTX, might have had the best venture portfolio in history.

  • In 2021, Bankman-Fried used Alameda Research to put $500 million into Anthropic for roughly an 8% stake.

  • He also took stakes in Robinhood, SpaceX through K5 Global, and an early bet on the AI coding startup Cursor.

  • Had FTX simply held the Anthropic stake, it would now be worth more than $30 billion, more than FTX's own peak valuation.

Here's the catch. None of it mattered. FTX collapsed in late 2022 after Bankman-Fried misused customer funds, and he was sentenced to 25 years in prison for fraud. The bankruptcy estate was forced to sell the Anthropic stake early to repay customers.

So is he getting out early? Polymarket currently prices the odds of a Trump pardon at around 8 to 11%. Trump has publicly rejected the idea twice, citing the scale of the fraud. Slim odds but there’s still real money betting on them anyway.

The Munch Take: Sam clearly had a clear vision for where the world was heading and he correctly invested in that vision before just about anyone else. But picking the right companies early doesn’t make you a good investor if you stole the money to do it. My wife said the whole thing sounds like winning the lottery with a stolen ticket. Hard to argue with that.

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TRADING SUCCESS

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