What the Top 3% Know That You Don't

Here's a stat that should make every options trader uncomfortable:

According to CNBC, 97% of options traders lose money.

But here's what's really shocking...

It's not because options are too risky. It's not because the market is rigged. It's not even because they're using bad strategies.

It's because they're using TOO MANY strategies.

I discovered this after analyzing thousands of losing trades (including hundreds of my own).

The 3% who actually make money? They've all figured out the same secret:

They use just a handful of techniques. Master them. And repeat them endlessly.

I detail these exact techniques in my "Simple Options Trading For Beginners" book – the same one selling for $29.97 on our website today.

But right now, it's yours free.

Click here to join the 3%.

Good Trading,

Bill Poulos

P.S. At $29.97, this book is an incredible value. And for free? It's a no-brainer. Get it while you still can.

☕️ GM Munchers! Did you know that referees at this World Cup are now using AI to detect offsides in real time, making calls in under 25 seconds? AI is literally taking over every industry including ones where grown men argue about invisible lines on a grass field. What a time to be alive.

On today’s menu:

• 🥳 Micron Just Saved The Market

• 📉 Bitcoin Is In A Bloodbath

• 🏎️ Porsche Cuts 3,900 Jobs

• 🥇 Gold And Silver Are Getting Destroyed

• 🤯 Trump Just Said To Buy This Stock

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

🥳 Micron Just Saved The Market

The whole market was holding its breath for this one. $MU Micron reported after the bell yesterday and the numbers were not just good. They were record-breaking on almost every single line.

The Numbers: Micron posted adjusted earnings of $25.11 per share on revenue of $41.5 billion. Wall Street was expecting $20.49 per share and $35.69 billion in revenue. That is not a small beat. That is a $5.77 billion revenue beat and a $4.62 earnings-per-share beat on top of already sky-high expectations. Gross margins hit a company record of 84.9%. Free cash flow hit a record too. This was Micron's fifth consecutive quarterly revenue record.

Then came the guidance. Micron guided Q4 revenue of $50 billion, well above the $43.2 billion Wall Street was expecting. The stock surged more than 13% after hours, adding roughly $120 billion in market cap in minutes.

Why This Is Bigger Than Just Micron: This report matters for the entire market, not just chip investors. Micron is the thermometer for AI infrastructure spending. When Micron wins this big, it means the data centers are still being built at full speed, the hyperscalers are still ordering chips by the billions, and the AI buildout has not hit a wall.

Three things every investor should take from this report:

• 🟢 HBM chips are the special memory chips that power AI systems. Micron makes them, they are completely sold out, and every chip they can produce through 2027 is already spoken for. The AI boom is not slowing down. It is still running at full speed.

• 📈 Micron told investors to expect $50 billion in revenue next quarter. That is $7 billion more than Wall Street predicted and another 20% jump from an already record quarter. Companies do not guide that high unless they can see the orders already sitting in front of them.

• 💰 Micron raised its dividend and announced it is buying back its own stock. In plain English, the company is so confident about its future that it is handing money back to shareholders instead of hoarding it. That is one of the clearest signals of confidence a company can send.

The Oil Story Nobody Is Talking About

One more thing worth flagging. US crude oil crashed below $70 a barrel yesterday for the first time since March 1st. That is a direct result of the Iran deal holding and the Strait of Hormuz staying open. This is good news and it got almost no attention because Micron was stealing the headlines.

The Munch Take: A week ago the market was pricing in a chip collapse. AI stocks were getting destroyed. Sentiment hit Fear territory. And now Micron walked out and reported the best quarter in its history with guidance that made analysts do a double-take. The AI bull run is not over. It just needed a reminder of why it started. Cheaper oil and a record Micron quarter in the same day is the kind of setup that turns a bad week into a distant memory very fast.

📉 Bitcoin Is In A Bloodbath. Here’s Where It Could Go Next.

Bitcoin fell below $60,000 yesterday. That means it’s now down 20% in a single month and 52% from its all-time high of $126,000. There’s now a 64% chance Bitcoin falls below $50,000 and a 46% chance it drops below $45,000 before year end. This is not a rough patch. It’s a full reckoning.

Why Bitcoin Is Falling: Two things hit at once. First, capital rotation. Every dollar chasing SpaceX, Nvidia, and AI infrastructure stocks is a dollar that left Bitcoin. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.7 billion in outflows in a single week as money shifted aggressively toward AI and semiconductor stocks. When risk capital has somewhere more exciting to go, it goes. Right now that somewhere is artificial intelligence and SpaceX.

Second, the Fed rate hike story we have been covering all week. Higher rates mean a stronger dollar. A stronger dollar means Bitcoin gets sold. Same story crushing gold and silver, just louder and faster because crypto moves in bigger swings.

The Three Scenarios From Here: Based on the historical Bitcoin cycles, here is how the math plays out:

• 🟡 Best Case: $54,000 holds. This is Bitcoin's aggregate investor cost basis, meaning the average price every market participant paid for their coins. Long-term institutional buyers tend to step in hard at this level. If it holds, this correction stops at a relatively mild 57% from peak.

• 🟠 Base Case: $44,000 to $50,500. This is where the real institutional ETF floor sits. If the Fed hike narrative forces more liquidations, a 60% to 65% correction would land Bitcoin in this range. Painful, but historically normal.

• 🔴 Worst Case: $29,000 to $35,000. If the institutional maturity thesis is wrong and Bitcoin repeats its historic bear market pattern, a 72% to 77% drawdown puts us here. A 75% drop from the $126,000 peak spits out a bottom around $31,500.

Our Position: We are still adding to our Bitcoin position. It is down roughly 30% from our average entry. That hurts and we are not pretending otherwise. But global ETF net assets are still holding within 8% of their all-time highs. Wall Street is not panic-selling. That is a fundamentally different setup than 2018 or 2021. Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins. Every fiat currency on earth is being printed in larger quantities. The finite nature of Bitcoin is not a thesis. It’s simple mathematics.

If You Have Never Researched Bitcoin: We are not asking you to buy it today. We are asking you to spend 30 minutes understanding what it actually is and why it is categorically different from the 99.9% of crypto projects that are genuinely scams. Start with The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous. It takes a few hours to read. It has the potential to permanently change how you think about money, savings, and the long-term value of hard assets. That is not hype. That is a book recommendation.

The Munch Take: Risk capital chased AI stocks and SpaceX and left Bitcoin sitting at a 52% drawdown from its high. That will not last forever. Capital rotates. The companies getting bid up right now on AI euphoria will eventually plateau, and when that money starts looking for the next asymmetric opportunity, Bitcoin's finite supply and growing institutional base make it one of the most obvious places for it to land. We do not know if the bottom is $54,000 or $31,500. Nobody does. What we know is that the long-term thesis has not changed and we are not selling.

9 AI Stocks To Watch In July (Ad)

The biggest winners in the next leg of AI may not be the household names everyone already owns. They may be the suppliers, enablers, and software businesses quietly benefiting while Wall Street keeps expanding AI budgets. Major tech firms are projected to spend roughly $635B to $665B on AI in 2026.

👉️ Take a look at the 9 stocks here.

**By clicking this link you agree to receive emails from StockEarnings and our affiliates. You can opt out at any time.  Privacy Policy. **

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🍎 $AAPL Apple shut down its first ever unionized store. No further comment needed. The lawyers are probably not available for comment either.

🏎️ $P911 Porsche is cutting 3,900 jobs after profit margins collapsed from some of the fattest in the auto industry down to just 1%. When a company known for selling $150,000 cars is struggling to make money, something has gone seriously wrong in the engine room. The stock is only down 5% this year which feels generous given the numbers.

🛒 $AMZN Prime Day household spending dropped 16% according to Bloomberg. That is not a great sign for the economy. But let's be honest. Did you even know it was Prime Day this week? The hype is long gone. My wife missed it entirely and she has never missed a Prime Day in her life. That might be the most bearish data point of all.

🚗 $HTZ Hertz cratered 41% after warning that soft demand would pressure earnings, then announced plans to sell new stock and take on more debt at the same time. Warning investors about weak business and then asking them for more money in the same breath is a bold strategy.

☀️ $RUN Sunrun jumped nearly 13% after announcing a partnership with Tesla and Renew Home to use residential solar and battery systems to power AI data centers. Your rooftop solar panels are now part of the AI infrastructure boom. The future is weird.

STOCK OF THE DAY

🥇 Gold And Silver Are Getting Destroyed. We Think It's A Buying Opportunity.

Precious metals are getting destroyed right now. Plain and simple. Gold is down 28% from it’s all-time high set back in January and silver is down 38%. In the last 30 hours alone, gold shed another 3.87%, wiping out $1.1 trillion in value, while silver dropped 9.18%, erasing another $400 billion. That is a lot of zeros disappearing very fast.

One Thing Is Driving Almost All Of This: The relationship between interest rates and gold is not complicated. Gold pays no interest. When rates go higher, cash and bonds suddenly pay more, making gold less attractive by comparison. The dollar just hit a one year high, CME FedWatch is now pricing a 72.8% chance of a September rate hike, an 80.6% chance in October, and an 87.9% chance by December. A strong dollar makes gold cheaper to dump and harder to buy for foreign investors. That is the entire story right now.

Deutsche Bank warned that three to four Fed hikes could take gold as low as $3,800 an ounce. That is another 6% lower from here. Not devastating, but not nothing either.

Why We Still Think This Is A Long Term Buy: The macro case for gold has not changed. US debt exceeds $37 trillion with annual interest payments above $1 trillion. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for four straight years. The dollar's share of global reserves has been declining for two decades. None of those facts are changing just because the Fed got hawkish. They’re just getting temporarily overridden by the rate narrative.

Goldman Sachs still targets $4,900 gold by year end. JPMorgan has not walked back its $6,000 target. Both assume the rate hike fear eventually gives way to the structural story. The question is not whether that happens. It is when.

How To Actually Buy Gold: This is the part most newsletters skip. There are three main ways to get exposure and each one has a real tradeoff.

• 📊 GLD ETF: The easiest and most liquid option. You buy it like a stock, it tracks gold prices closely, and you can sell it in seconds. The downside is you never actually own the gold. You own a paper claim on it. If the financial system has a serious problem, paper claims on gold are exactly what you do not want.

• ⛏️ Gold Royalty and Streaming Companies: This is the overlooked approach. Companies like Royal Gold, Franco-Nevada, and Wheaton Precious Metals do not actually mine gold. They provide upfront financing to miners in exchange for the right to buy future gold production at fixed low prices. That gives you leveraged upside to gold prices without the operational risk of running an actual mine. When gold goes up, their profit margin expands dramatically. This is our preferred way to get asymmetric exposure.

• 🪙 Physical Gold: You own the actual metal. Nobody can margin call it. No counterparty risk, which is the core argument for holding it during periods of monetary uncertainty. The downside is storage, insurance, and the fact that you cannot sell it instantly at 2am when something breaks overnight.

The Munch Take: Gold and silver are getting hit by one specific narrative right now. Rate hikes are coming and the dollar is strong. Both of those things are true today but neither of them changes the 20-year structural story about debt, dollar dominance fading, and central banks diversifying away from US Treasuries. We are getting close to pulling the trigger on some form of gold exposure. The exact vehicle matters. We will let you know when we decide.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Thursday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🤯 Trump just said to buy this stock.

2. 👀 Nancy Pelosi just bought these stocks.

3. 🇺🇲 The U.S. Dollar is climbing.

4. 🇫🇷 France just had its hottest day in history.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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