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☕️ GM Munchers! Trump captured a foreign president over the weekend and the Dow climbed 700 points. I left one dish in the sink and got a 45-minute lecture on "responsibility." The market's risk tolerance is apparently higher than my wife's.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 Markets Party & Hard Assets Climb

• 🛢️ Oil's Identity Crisis Continues

• 🚀 Chevron, Nvidia & Caterpillar

• ✅ Wall Street’s S&P 500 2026 Targets

• 🇨🇳 Is China Going To Invade Taiwan?

Monday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📈 Markets Party Like It's 1999 (Except With More Regime Changes)

While you were enjoying your weekend, Trump captured Venezuelan President Maduro, flew him to New York, and charged him with narco-terrorism. The market's response? "Finally, some good news."

The scoreboard:

• Dow ripped 764 points (+1.6%) to a new all-time high

• S&P 500 climbed 0.7%

• Nasdaq joined the party

Energy stocks led the charge:

• Chevron: +5% (already operating in Venezuela)

• Exxon Mobil: +2%

• Halliburton: +11%

• SLB: +12%

• Energy sector ETF: +3%

Why the euphoria? Markets are betting the US "helps" rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure (the world's largest reserves at 300 billion barrels), which means American energy companies just got a backstage pass to the biggest oil field on Earth.

Analyst take: Sam Stovall from CFRA nailed it: "Short term, oil prices might spike due to supply uncertainty. Long term, it's an improvement—Venezuela represents only 1% of world oil supply, and their infrastructure is a disaster. The US can help with that."

The Munch Take: Risk-on is back. The market views the attack as a one-and-done and doesn’t seem scared that things will escalate. We’re not chasing these energy stocks but it’s a great start to 2026.

🥇 Gold & Bitcoin: The "We Don't Trust Governments" Rally

Geopolitical chaos = hard asset buying. Tale as old as time.

Yesterday's scoreboard:

• Gold: +2.5% to $4,400/oz

• Silver: +4.5% to $76/oz

• Bitcoin: +3%, back above $94K (up 8% in 2026 already)

Traders are hedging political uncertainty by buying stuff that can't be printed, regime-changed, or sanctioned. When the US is militarily annexing oil reserves, maybe owning non-government assets makes sense?

The Munch Take: This isn't FOMO territory yet—it's rational hedging. As we discussed this weekend, at least 50% of our portfolio is in hard assets right now. If you’re not, you’re basically betting geopolitical stability improves in 2026 and the government will stop printing money. Good luck with that.

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COMMODITIES

🛢️ Oil's Identity Crisis Continues

Oil opened Sunday night down (war bad?), then reversed and closed up 1% to $60/barrel (war good?). Classic oil market schizophrenia.

Why the confusion: Nobody knows what "US-controlled Venezuela" means for supply. Rebuild infrastructure and flood markets? Bearish. Regime chaos and supply disruptions? Bullish.

The Munch Take: Long-term bearish (more supply = lower prices), but near-term choppy. We're staying flat until clarity emerges. Trading oil right now is like trading my wife's mood after I forget to text back—unpredictable and dangerous.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

$CVX – Chevron opened up 11% (markets pricing in "we just won the oil lottery"), then reality cooled it to +5.1%. Already operating in Venezuela, Chevron basically got handed the keys to the world's largest oil field without negotiating. Sometimes showing up early to chaos pays dividends.

$NVDA – Nvidia launched a superchip at CES 2026, apparently the biggest tech show (we'd never heard of it either). The stock's been flatter than our November P&L for three months. Maybe this "revolutionary" chip changes something, maybe it doesn't. We'll find out together.

$CAT – Caterpillar pumped 3% unveiling "industrial AI" because apparently AI isn't satisfied taking desk jobs—it wants construction gigs and weekend gardening hobbies too. Nothing screams innovation like a robot that digs holes better than you. Stock's up 70% over the year, so investors clearly don't mind the machine uprising if it's profitable.

🇻🇪 Plot Twist – The biggest winner from Venezuela's regime change? Venezuela's stock market. Their index ripped 17% yesterday. When your country gets militarily annexed and your stock market celebrates harder than the Dow, the previous government really dropped the ball.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Tuesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🇨🇳 Somebody is betting that China will invade Taiwan this year.

2. ✅ Wall Street’s targets for the S&P 500 in 2026.

3. 🇨🇦 Canadian oil & gas got destroyed yesterday.

4. 🏘️ The US housing market is struggling.

5. 🚀 2025 hedge fund returns.

6. 👀 Maduro pleads not guilty.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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