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☕️ GM Munchers! It is so hot outside that my wife said she is looking forward to winter. In Canada. So clearly the market is not the only thing that has lost its mind this week.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 Inflation Cooled Again & The Fed Bulls Are Dancing

• 🚗 What On Earth Is Going On With Lucid?

• 🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

• 🧠 Micron Just Lost $110 Billion But It's Still Up 186%

• 🍟 McDonald’s Officially Enters A Bear Market

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📉 Inflation Cooled Again & The Fed Bulls Are Dancing

Two good inflation reports in two days. After Tuesday’s friendly CPI, yesterday the PPI came in at 5.5% when everyone expected 6.2%. That is a big miss in the best possible direction. Prices even fell 0.3% for the month when experts thought they would stay flat.

So what is PPI? Think of it as the price tag before the price tag. CPI is what you pay at the store. PPI is what businesses pay to make the stuff in the first place. If a bakery's flour gets cheaper, your bread usually gets cheaper a few months later. That is why PPI is like a sneak peek at tomorrow's shopping bill.

Why does this make stocks happy?

• 🎯 The rate hike odds are melting. Betting markets slashed the chance of a Fed rate hike this year from around 71% to roughly 51%. For the July meeting, traders now put an 88% chance the Fed just sits still.

• ⛽ Gas did the heavy lifting. Wholesale gasoline prices crashed 12% in June. Energy dropped 6.4%. That is the war premium leaking back out.

• 📈 Cheap money loves stocks. No hike means borrowing stays cheaper, companies keep more profit, and risky stuff like tech and crypto gets room to run.

📅 So what is the next big thing to watch?

Circle July 29 on your calendar. That is the Fed's next meeting, and it’s the main event. Traders are almost certain the Fed holds rates steady that day, so the real drama will be what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says afterward. Just this week he told lawmakers the Fed has "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation," which is central-banker speak for "do not get too comfortable." Fun bonus: Microsoft reports earnings that same day, so July 29 is going to be loud.

The Munch Take: Enjoy this, but don’t get drunk on it. Here is what nobody is shouting about: almost all of this good news came from cheaper gas, and that discount is already expiring. The Iran ceasefire fell apart just days ago, and oil has been climbing back ever since. This report is a photo of June, not a video of today. Even wilder, the raw materials deeper in the supply chain are still running hot, up over 11% for the year. That is inflation still sitting in the pipeline waiting its turn. And notice the sneaky part of the story: traders did not cancel the rate hike, they’re just not as confident in one. September now shows a 31% chance of a hike. So the party is real, the music is good, and the bill is still coming. Just later.

🚗 Lucid Crashed 49%, Then Jumped 28%. What On Earth Is Going On?

Lucid shareholders are definitely getting carsick. On Tuesday, a small website reported that electric car maker Lucid was thinking about filing for bankruptcy. The stock instantly fell off a cliff, dropping as much as 49% in a single day. It was so bad, trading got frozen twice because it was falling so fast. By the closing bell it had clawed back to only down 16%.

Then Lucid came out swinging and said the rumors were "completely false " and the stock bounced back 28% yesterday. Two days, total chaos, and even after that big bounce the stock is still down over 45% this year.

So are they even selling cars? Barely. Lucid delivered just 3,953 cars last quarter. To put that in perspective, Toyota sells more cars before lunch. Worse, Lucid built 4,774 cars in that same stretch. Read that again. They are making more cars than they can sell.

And how much money are they burning? Buckle up. Lucid lost $1.03 billion in just three months, nearly triple its loss from a year ago. It burned about $3.8 billion in cash last year while delivering only 15,800 cars. Do that math and every single car they sell costs them a fortune. Wall Street does not expect them to stop burning cash until 2030 and that’s even if they’re still in business by then.

🐂 The Bull Case:

• 🇸🇦 A rich uncle keeps paying. Saudi Arabia's giant investment fund has poured in over $9 billion and just handed over another $800 million.

• 🔋 The tech is legit. Lucid genuinely makes some of the best battery technology in the world, and rivals want it.

• 🤖 A robotaxi lottery ticket. It has a deal with Uber for self-driving cars that could pay off someday.

🐻 The Bear Case:

• 🔥 The burn is brutal. Roughly $1 billion torched every quarter, with $4.7 billion left. You can do that math.

• ✂️ Panic mode. They cut 18% of staff in June, the second big layoff in four months, replaced almost the whole leadership team, and yanked their own 2026 forecasts.

• 📉 The market has spoken. The whole company is now worth about $2.3 billion. Saudi Arabia put in over $9 billion. That is a 75% loss for the smartest, richest money in the room.

The Munch Take: Avoid this one completely. Here is the number that tells you everything: Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, with unlimited money and the best advisors on Earth, put over $9 billion into Lucid. The entire company is now worth $2.3 billion. They have lost three quarters of their money and they are the insiders. If the people with the best seats in the house are underwater by 75%, what exactly do you know that they do not? A stock swinging 49% down and 28% up on a rumor from a small blog is not an investment, it’s a coin flip with extra steps. And here is the cruelest part: even if Lucid survives, it survives by asking the Saudis for more money, and that means printing more shares, which means your slice of the pie gets smaller every single time. You can be right about the company living and still lose money on the stock. This is a hard pass.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🤝 $BABA $AAPL Alibaba jumped 4.78% and Apple popped 4.01% after news that Alibaba's Qwen AI will power Apple Intelligence in China. Apple gets an AI partner without building one from scratch, and Alibaba gets the biggest customer on the planet. Everybody wins.

🏦 $BLK BlackRock rose 6.63% after beating earnings and becoming the first investment firm ever to cross $15 trillion in assets. That is a number so big it stops sounding like money and starts sounding like a country.

🚙 $PGR Progressive dropped 9.43% after June profit fell 31% from a year ago. Turns out selling insurance is only fun until people start filing claims.

🏥 $ELV Elevance Health slipped 9.27% as worries about its Medicaid business drowned out a revenue beat and a raised forecast. Good news is nice, but the market only heard the scary part.

💊 $JNJ Johnson & Johnson fell 2.69% as weak sales of its blockbuster drug Stelara wiped out a better full-year outlook. When your star player has an off night, the whole team feels it.

STOCK OF THE DAY

🧠 Micron Just Lost $110 Billion In A Day But It's Still Up 186%

What a day for Micron. The memory chip giant dropped about 8%, erasing roughly $110 billion in value in a single session. And here is the kicker: even after that beating, the stock is still up a ridiculous 186% this year.

So why the sudden dump? Three things spooked everyone at once.

1. A Chinese memory maker called CXMT announced a big $8.55 billion stock listing, which means a new rival is loading up to make more chips.

2. SK Hynix, fresh off its huge U.S. debut, said it plans to crank up production through 2030.

3. And CoreWeave, a giant AI customer, is reportedly looking for ways to protect itself if memory prices fall. When your biggest customer starts buying insurance against your prices dropping, that says something.

Then Warren Buffett poured gas on it, warning that it is getting "tough to find values when everybody is preferring gambling" on AI. Micron fell right after.

🐂 The Bull Case:

• 💰 It looks dirt cheap. The P/E is just 20.47. For a company growing this fast, that is remarkably low.

• 🔒 Demand is locked in. Micron has 16 long-term customer deals, including GM and Ford, plus a massive $250 billion U.S. investment plan.

• ⏳ The shortage may last. SK Hynix's own CEO says the memory shortage could run past 2030.

🐻 The Bear Case:

• 🏭 Everyone is building more. SK Hynix, Samsung, and now China are all racing to make more chips. More supply means lower prices.

• 🚪 Insiders are heading out. Micron insiders sold $156.7 million in shares over three months. Trump just sold his too.

• 🎢 Memory always crashes. This business has boomed and busted for 40 straight years. Every single time.

The Munch Take: Here is our definitive call: that cheap-looking P/E of 20 is a trap, and we are not buying. This is the oldest trick in the cyclical playbook. Memory chip stocks look their absolute cheapest right at the top, because the "E" in P/E is peak earnings that are about to fall off a cliff. When prices are booming, profits are enormous, so the P/E looks tiny and everyone screams "bargain!" Then supply floods in, prices crack, earnings collapse, and suddenly that cheap stock at 20 times earnings is an expensive stock at 60 times earnings, except the price already fell 50%. Micron is a genuinely great company having a genuinely historic year. But three rivals just announced they are building more chips and your biggest customer is hedging against your prices. That is not a bargain setup. That is the sound of a cycle turning. We will take a hard pass and watch this one from the cheap seats.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Thursday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 😏 How daily 'stock bets' hit 87% of the time

2. 🍟 McDonald’s officially enters a bear market.

3. 🚀 SpaceX just lost over $800 billion.

4. 😬 These 6 stocks are crashing.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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