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☕️ GM Munchers! My doctor told me to reduce stress. My doctor has clearly never had a brokerage account, a mortgage, and a wife who wants to renovate the basement all at the same time.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 Peace Deal Or Propaganda? Yes.

• 🪳 Jamie Dimon's Private Credit Warning

• 🚨 The Bond Market Is Calling Everyone's Bluff

• 💰️ Meta Has To Pay $400 Million

• 🚀 Top 5 Nasdaq stocks for 2026

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📉 Peace Deal Or Propaganda? Yes.

Yesterday the market couldn't make up its mind and honestly neither could anyone else. Because right now there are two completely different wars happening simultaneously — the physical one and the information one. Both are equally chaotic.

1. 🇺🇲 Trump's Version: Trump stepped to the podium claiming the U.S. and Iran have "major points of agreement" and that Iran agreed they'll never build a nuclear weapon. He even said that Tehran handed America a "very big present" related to oil and gas. Sounds like progress. Sounds like a deal. Sounds great.

2. 🇮🇷 Iran's Version: Iran's Parliament Speaker went on record calling all of it fake news. Fabricated. A manipulation tactic designed to move oil markets and buy time for U.S. troop deployments. Iran is publicly vowing to fight until "complete victory." So. Yeah.

Meanwhile, The Bombs Kept Falling: Here's the part the market keeps forgetting. Trump's 5-day pause only covers energy infrastructure. The actual war never stopped. Israel launched fresh strikes directly into Tehran yesterday. The Pentagon quietly deployed another 3,000 troops during the "pause." Iran fired another wave of missiles into Israel overnight and caused damage in Tel Aviv. A ceasefire this is not.

• Oil caught on and climbed almost 4%, retesting $100 a barrel.

• Axios reported that the U.S. and Israel are privately planning for another two to three weeks of fighting, regardless of whatever Trump says at the podium.

• The market spent the entire day flipping between green and red, trying to figure out who to believe.

The Munch Take: Nobody knows what's real right now. Trump says deal. Iran says fake. Bombs are still falling. Oil is climbing. The market is doing the electric slide between gains and losses. This is exactly the environment where day traders get destroyed and patient investors eat. Sit on your hands. Let the chaos sort itself out.

🪳 Jamie Dimon's Cockroaches Just Showed Up To The Party

Last year Jamie Dimon warned there were cockroaches hiding in the private credit market. Everyone nodded and went back to buying AI stocks. They're here now. And they brought friends.

What Is Private Credit: Instead of borrowing from a regular bank, companies borrow directly from giant funds like Apollo, Ares, and KKR. Sounds fine until the borrowers — mostly software companies — stop being able to pay the loans back. Wall Street is calling it the SaaSpocalypse. Yes that's a real term. No it's not fine.

The Bank Run Nobody Is Talking About:

• Apollo capped withdrawals after investors tried pulling out over 11% of shares — more than double the quarterly limit. Software loans are 12.3% of their whole portfolio. Yikes.

• Ares got hit with 11.6% redemption requests on their $10.7 billion fund and enforced a 5% cap. Do the math on everyone left waiting in line.

• KKR got downgraded to junk by Moody's after non-performing loans hit 5.5% of the portfolio. Junk. The actual technical word.

The funds are calling it "disciplined stewardship." You and I would call it a bank run.

Why You Should Care: When these funds freeze, companies that rely on private loans can't borrow. That means layoffs, slower growth, and earnings misses. It shows up in your portfolio eventually whether you've heard of private credit or not.

The Munch Take: Goldman says it's too small to matter. Gundlach says it looks like 2008. My wife has never heard the word SaaSpocalypse and her savings account is up 4.8% on the year. She cracked the code and I'm still here writing about cockroaches.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

😬 $META If you thought your credit card bill was high, Meta now has to pay almost $400 million in civil damages after a trial in New Mexico found that Facebook and Instagram failed to safeguard kids on the platform from child predators.

🇨🇦 $DOL Dollarama in Canada is struggling. The stock crashed 9.60% yesterday after they announced they expect slower sales growth. When even the dollar store becomes unaffordable, you know things aren’t looking great.

🪙 $CRCL Circle face-planted 20% after Congress introduced a bill that could ban stablecoins from offering yield to holders. For context, offering yield on USDC is basically Circle's entire reason for existing. That's not a headwind. That's an extinction event.

📺 $MSFT Microsoft dropped 2% yesterday, is down 20% in 2026, and shed $73 billion in market cap in a single session. The reason we're telling you this? Jim Cramer went on TV and said he's bullish. Consider yourself warned. Do with that information exactly what you think you should do with it.

✈️ Major Airlines warned yesterday that airfares could surge 20% thanks to $100 oil. My wife has been asking about a European vacation since January. I have never been more grateful for a geopolitical crisis as a conversation ender. Tragic. Truly tragic.

₿ $BTC Bitcoin slipped below $69,000, down roughly 2% on the day and still bleeding 20% on the year. The digital gold narrative is having a rough 2026. It dragged $COIN Coinbase down over 10% with it because apparently they're still handcuffed together. Two drowning swimmers holding hands. Inspiring stuff.

BONDS

🚨 The Bond Market Is Calling Everyone's Bluff

While retail investors are glued to the S&P 500 like it's a reality show, the smart money is watching one number: the 10-Year Treasury Yield. It's sitting at 4.40% right now and it didn't budge even when the peace talk rumours dropped. The stock market celebrated. The bond market didn't believe a word of it.

That's the thing about bonds. They don't care about tweets. They run on cold math and inflation expectations and right now the math is ugly.

1. Why 4.40% Matters: The 10-Year yield is the baseline interest rate for basically everything. Mortgages. Business loans. Corporate debt. When it moves, everything moves with it. It's the financial system's heartbeat and right now it's beating way too fast.

2. Why 5% Is The Danger Zone: If yields push to 5%, the dominoes start falling in order. Mortgage rates surge back toward 8% and the housing market freezes completely. Corporations stop hiring and start cutting because borrowing gets too expensive. Institutional money managers pull cash out of your tech stocks to collect a guaranteed 5% from the government. And the U.S. government, sitting on $34 trillion in debt, starts spending an absolutely terrifying portion of the federal budget just paying interest.

The Munch Take: The stock market gets distracted by headlines. The bond market does not. Right now bonds are telling you that regardless of whatever peace deal gets announced, inflation is staying hot and rates aren't coming down. My wife tracks our household budget with this level of cold ruthless accuracy. I should have listened to her, too.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Wednesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 🚀 How to get in on the SpaceX IPO.

2. 🇨🇦 Canada is printing a ton of money.

3. 😥 Retail investors are losing risk appetite.

4. 📉 These major stocks are down big time.

5. 🇵🇭 The Philippines President declared a national emergency.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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