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- šØ Recession Warning? The Fedās Favorite Indicator Just Flashed Red
šØ Recession Warning? The Fedās Favorite Indicator Just Flashed Red
Markets are on edge. A key recession signal just triggered, and Nvidia just put up another monster quarter. What does it all mean? Letās break it down.

Lark Funding just launched a new prop firm challenge model thatās only around for the next 30 days, and traders are already eating it up.

āļø GM Munchers! The market is about as stable as my WiFi during a storm. One moment, AI stocks are saving the world. The next, the Fed is out here dropping economic red flags like itās signalling a breakup.
On todayās menu:
š„ Nvidiaās Monster Earnings ā Is There Any Stopping This Stock?
š A New Prop Firm Challenge
šØ Recession Warning? The Fedās Favorite Indicator Just Flashed Red
š Teslaās Stock Is Looking Ugly
š¬ Bitcoin Continues To Crash
STOCKS
š„ Nvidiaās Monster Earnings ā Is There Any Stopping This Stock?

Nvidia just did it again.
The AI chip giant dropped another monster earnings report, proving once again that itās basically printing money at this point.
Revenue: $39.3 billion (+78% YoY)
Earnings per share (EPS): $0.89 (beat estimates)
Next quarterās guidance: $43 billion in revenue
Stock movement: Up nearly 11% over the last month but still down 5% YTD
The takeaway?
Nvidia is still riding the AI boom like a meme stock on steroids.
But hereās the kicker: this stock is so big it doesnāt just move itself. It moves the entire market.

š Why Nvidia Is the Market
Nvidia isnāt just a tech stockāitās a market-moving juggernaut.
At a $3.3 trillion market cap, it's one of the biggest components of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

So when Nvidia pops, the entire market tends to ride the AI hype train.
And when it dips, well... thatās when traders start sweating.
Case in point: This year, tech stocks have been struggling under rate cut uncertainty, but Nvidiaās earnings were the one thing keeping the market from falling off a cliff yesterday.
Without it?
We mightāve been looking at another red day across the board. š¬
Hereās how it impacts the bigger picture:
Tech stocks: The AI boom is the single biggest theme keeping big tech afloat right now. Nvidiaās success makes stocks like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon look stronger than a crypto broās conviction during a bull run.
S&P 500 & Nasdaq: Nvidia alone can lift or tank these indexes, which means traders need to watch how investors react to its earnings over the next few days.
Risk sentiment: If Nvidiaās growth continues at this pace, it could keep optimism aliveāeven in the face of sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts. But if AI hype slows down? Buckle up.

ā ļø What Could Go Wrong?
Not everything is perfect in Nvidia-land.

While the numbers were huge, there are still risks that traders should keep an eye on:
Margin Compression ā Gross margins dropped slightly due to higher costs in Data Centers, signaling that Nvidiaās insane profitability might not be as easy to sustain.
Competition Heating Up ā Chinese AI companies like DeepSeek are pushing into the market. Right now, theyāre not a major threatābut give it time.
Rate Cuts Still Uncertain ā Nvidia is priced like itās unstoppable, but if the Fed keeps rates high, expensive growth stocks could take a hit.
Market Exhaustion? ā Nvidiaās stock is already up 400% since 2023. At what point does the AI hype start running out of steam?

š The Bottom Line
Nvidiaās earnings were a home run, keeping the AI hype alive and well.
But traders should rememberāthis isnāt just about one stock.
The market is leaning on Nvidia to keep things green, and any weakness here could spill over into the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and risk assets in general.
So while the AI boom is still full speed ahead, traders should stay sharpābecause when Nvidia sneezes, the whole market catches a cold.
PROP FIRMS
A New Prop Firm Challenge š

Lark Funding just dropped a game-changer in the prop firm space, and itās got rules youāll actually love (unlike the ones from your last trading account).
ā
Phase 1 Target: 8%
ā
Phase 2 Target: 5%
ā
Max Drawdown: 8% (finally, some breathing room)
ā
Daily Profit Cap: +/- 3% (because steady hands win the race)
ā
Static Drawdown: Keeps things predictable, just how we like it
ā
Payouts up to 90% ā Yes, you keep more of your winnings
ā
News Trading? ALLOWED. (Go ahead, trade those NFP spikes!)
š° All at an incredible price point ā making it one of the best-value challenges on the market.
Lark Funding is one of the only CDBO-certified prop firms, meaning traders get their payouts on time, every time.
š„ Ready to prove youāve got what it takes? Join the Vintage Challenge now and start unlocking your trading potential.
š Itās only being offered for 30 days, so lock in your account before itās too late!
MARKET OVERVIEW
šØ Recession Warning? The Fedās Favorite Indicator Just Flashed Red
Traders, weāve got a BIG warning sign on the dashboard.
The Fedās favourite recession indicatorāthe yield curve inversionājust did its thing again, and if history tells us anything, this could spell trouble.

Letās break down why this is a big deal and how to add it as another weapon in your trader toolkit. šØ

What Just Happened? š¤
Yesterday the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.26%, dipping below the 3-month Treasury yieldāwhich is basically like saying, āI trust the next three months more than the next ten years.ā
Historically, since 1955, this kind of move has been one of the most reliable predictors of a recession.
Translation? Investors are nervous.
Like "refreshing your bank app after a big night out" nervous.


What This Means for the Market š
This yield curve inversion doesnāt guarantee a recession, but itās enough to make big-money investors start adjusting their portfolios.
š Stocks: Risky assets like tech and industrials could see some selling pressure.
š° Bonds: Long-term bonds might get a boost as investors rush into safe-haven assets.
šµ U.S. Dollar: The greenback could weaken if markets start pricing in lower interest rates.
š Defensive Stocks: Sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples tend to hold up better during economic slowdowns.

What Should Traders Do?
If youāre struggling, remember this: the best traders arenāt making a ton of money right nowātheyāre just NOT LOSING money.
And that makes all the difference.
No trade is still a trade. Sometimes, the best move is to sit tight and wait for the right setup.
Hedge your positions. If youāre long equities, consider adding some protective puts or defensive assets.
Follow the data. This inversion is one warning signākeep an eye on jobs reports, GDP growth, and corporate earnings for more clues (thatās our job, weāll keep you updated as always).

Big Picture: A Market on Edge š°
Itās not just the yield curve making traders nervous.
Inflation is still hanging around, rate cuts keep getting delayed, and weāve got ongoing tariff drama with Canada, Mexico, and possibly Europe.
Add it all up, and this market is like a Jenga tower thatās missing a few too many blocksāone wrong move, and things could tumble.
For now, the best play might just be risk management and patience.
There will be plenty of opportunities to capitalize when the dust settlesāand trust us, it always does.
Stay sharp, trade smart, and remember: cash is a position too. ā
š Pre-Market Fuel
Bitcoin continues to crash, and itās not looking good. The Greed & Fear index is the lowest its been in a LONG time. Itās now done over 20% from itās ATH.
Tesla stock is down 40% from its December high. Where do you think weāre headed next?
Nissan is moving to replace their CEO. Their stock is down almost 5% YTD.
šŖ Munchy Memes
No time to grow up.
ā Trader Theory (@Trader_Theory)
11:20 AM ā¢ Feb 26, 2025
" don't go babe, this is the last shake out "
ā naiive (@naiivememe)
2:39 AM ā¢ Feb 26, 2025
Nvidia holders // Crypto holders
ā Autism Capital š§© (@AutismCapital)
9:37 PM ā¢ Feb 26, 2025
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