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  • šŸšØ Recession Warning? The Fedā€™s Favorite Indicator Just Flashed Red

šŸšØ Recession Warning? The Fedā€™s Favorite Indicator Just Flashed Red

Markets are on edge. A key recession signal just triggered, and Nvidia just put up another monster quarter. What does it all mean? Letā€™s break it down.

Lark Funding just launched a new prop firm challenge model thatā€™s only around for the next 30 days, and traders are already eating it up.

ā˜•ļø GM Munchers! The market is about as stable as my WiFi during a storm. One moment, AI stocks are saving the world. The next, the Fed is out here dropping economic red flags like itā€™s signalling a breakup.

On todayā€™s menu:

  • šŸ”„ Nvidiaā€™s Monster Earnings ā€“ Is There Any Stopping This Stock?

  • šŸ˜ A New Prop Firm Challenge

  • šŸšØ Recession Warning? The Fedā€™s Favorite Indicator Just Flashed Red

  • šŸ“‰ Teslaā€™s Stock Is Looking Ugly

  • šŸ˜¬ Bitcoin Continues To Crash

STOCKS

šŸ”„ Nvidiaā€™s Monster Earnings ā€“ Is There Any Stopping This Stock?

Nvidia just did it again.

The AI chip giant dropped another monster earnings report, proving once again that itā€™s basically printing money at this point.

  • Revenue: $39.3 billion (+78% YoY)

  • Earnings per share (EPS): $0.89 (beat estimates)

  • Next quarterā€™s guidance: $43 billion in revenue

  • Stock movement: Up nearly 11% over the last month but still down 5% YTD

The takeaway?

Nvidia is still riding the AI boom like a meme stock on steroids.

But hereā€™s the kicker: this stock is so big it doesnā€™t just move itself. It moves the entire market.

šŸš€ Why Nvidia Is the Market

Nvidia isnā€™t just a tech stockā€”itā€™s a market-moving juggernaut.

At a $3.3 trillion market cap, it's one of the biggest components of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

So when Nvidia pops, the entire market tends to ride the AI hype train.

And when it dips, well... thatā€™s when traders start sweating.

Case in point: This year, tech stocks have been struggling under rate cut uncertainty, but Nvidiaā€™s earnings were the one thing keeping the market from falling off a cliff yesterday.

Without it?

We mightā€™ve been looking at another red day across the board. šŸ˜¬

Hereā€™s how it impacts the bigger picture:

  • Tech stocks: The AI boom is the single biggest theme keeping big tech afloat right now. Nvidiaā€™s success makes stocks like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon look stronger than a crypto broā€™s conviction during a bull run.

  • S&P 500 & Nasdaq: Nvidia alone can lift or tank these indexes, which means traders need to watch how investors react to its earnings over the next few days.

  • Risk sentiment: If Nvidiaā€™s growth continues at this pace, it could keep optimism aliveā€”even in the face of sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts. But if AI hype slows down? Buckle up.

āš ļø What Could Go Wrong?

Not everything is perfect in Nvidia-land.

While the numbers were huge, there are still risks that traders should keep an eye on:

  1. Margin Compression ā€“ Gross margins dropped slightly due to higher costs in Data Centers, signaling that Nvidiaā€™s insane profitability might not be as easy to sustain.

  2. Competition Heating Up ā€“ Chinese AI companies like DeepSeek are pushing into the market. Right now, theyā€™re not a major threatā€”but give it time.

  3. Rate Cuts Still Uncertain ā€“ Nvidia is priced like itā€™s unstoppable, but if the Fed keeps rates high, expensive growth stocks could take a hit.

  4. Market Exhaustion? ā€“ Nvidiaā€™s stock is already up 400% since 2023. At what point does the AI hype start running out of steam?

šŸ The Bottom Line

Nvidiaā€™s earnings were a home run, keeping the AI hype alive and well.

But traders should rememberā€”this isnā€™t just about one stock.

The market is leaning on Nvidia to keep things green, and any weakness here could spill over into the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and risk assets in general.

So while the AI boom is still full speed ahead, traders should stay sharpā€”because when Nvidia sneezes, the whole market catches a cold.

PROP FIRMS

A New Prop Firm Challenge šŸ˜ 

Lark Funding just dropped a game-changer in the prop firm space, and itā€™s got rules youā€™ll actually love (unlike the ones from your last trading account).

āœ… Phase 1 Target: 8%
āœ… Phase 2 Target: 5%
āœ… Max Drawdown: 8% (finally, some breathing room)
āœ… Daily Profit Cap: +/- 3% (because steady hands win the race)
āœ… Static Drawdown: Keeps things predictable, just how we like it
āœ… Payouts up to 90% ā€“ Yes, you keep more of your winnings
āœ… News Trading? ALLOWED. (Go ahead, trade those NFP spikes!)

šŸ’° All at an incredible price point ā€“ making it one of the best-value challenges on the market.

Lark Funding is one of the only CDBO-certified prop firms, meaning traders get their payouts on time, every time.

šŸ”„ Ready to prove youā€™ve got what it takes? Join the Vintage Challenge now and start unlocking your trading potential.

šŸ“‰ Itā€™s only being offered for 30 days, so lock in your account before itā€™s too late!

MARKET OVERVIEW

šŸšØ Recession Warning? The Fedā€™s Favorite Indicator Just Flashed Red

Traders, weā€™ve got a BIG warning sign on the dashboard.

The Fedā€™s favourite recession indicatorā€”the yield curve inversionā€”just did its thing again, and if history tells us anything, this could spell trouble.

Letā€™s break down why this is a big deal and how to add it as another weapon in your trader toolkit. šŸ”Ø

What Just Happened? šŸ¤” 

Yesterday the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.26%, dipping below the 3-month Treasury yieldā€”which is basically like saying, ā€œI trust the next three months more than the next ten years.ā€

Historically, since 1955, this kind of move has been one of the most reliable predictors of a recession.

Translation? Investors are nervous.

Like "refreshing your bank app after a big night out" nervous.

What This Means for the Market šŸ“Š 

This yield curve inversion doesnā€™t guarantee a recession, but itā€™s enough to make big-money investors start adjusting their portfolios.

  • šŸ“‰ Stocks: Risky assets like tech and industrials could see some selling pressure.

  • šŸ’° Bonds: Long-term bonds might get a boost as investors rush into safe-haven assets.

  • šŸ’µ U.S. Dollar: The greenback could weaken if markets start pricing in lower interest rates.

  • šŸ›‘ Defensive Stocks: Sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples tend to hold up better during economic slowdowns.

What Should Traders Do?

If youā€™re struggling, remember this: the best traders arenā€™t making a ton of money right nowā€”theyā€™re just NOT LOSING money. 

And that makes all the difference.

  • No trade is still a trade. Sometimes, the best move is to sit tight and wait for the right setup.

  • Hedge your positions. If youā€™re long equities, consider adding some protective puts or defensive assets.

  • Follow the data. This inversion is one warning signā€”keep an eye on jobs reports, GDP growth, and corporate earnings for more clues (thatā€™s our job, weā€™ll keep you updated as always).

Big Picture: A Market on Edge šŸ˜°

Itā€™s not just the yield curve making traders nervous.

Inflation is still hanging around, rate cuts keep getting delayed, and weā€™ve got ongoing tariff drama with Canada, Mexico, and possibly Europe.

Add it all up, and this market is like a Jenga tower thatā€™s missing a few too many blocksā€”one wrong move, and things could tumble.

For now, the best play might just be risk management and patience.

There will be plenty of opportunities to capitalize when the dust settlesā€”and trust us, it always does.

Stay sharp, trade smart, and remember: cash is a position too. āœ… 

šŸš€ Pre-Market Fuel

  1. Bitcoin continues to crash, and itā€™s not looking good. The Greed & Fear index is the lowest its been in a LONG time. Itā€™s now done over 20% from itā€™s ATH.

  2. Tesla stock is down 40% from its December high. Where do you think weā€™re headed next?

  3. Nissan is moving to replace their CEO. Their stock is down almost 5% YTD.

šŸŖ Munchy Memes

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