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BREAKING NEWS

 🍎 2 Reasons Apple’s Stock Is Crashing

🍎 Apple ( $AAPL ( ▼ 0.85% ) ) just delivered the strongest June quarter in its history and investors responded by crashing the stock. More than $470 billion in market value vanished in a matter of hours before the stock slightly recovered but it still closed Friday down 7.35%, erasing nearly $360 billion.

The quarter itself was excellent. Revenue hit a record $109.4 billion, up 16%. iPhone revenue jumped 22% to a June-quarter record of $54.3 billion. Mac surged 29%. Even China, a sore spot for years, rebounded 22%. This was also Tim Cook's final earnings call before handing the CEO job to John Ternus on September 1.

So why the selloff? Two words: guidance and chips. Apple told investors next quarter's growth would slow to 9-11%, below the 12% Wall Street wanted. Worse, Cook warned of a memory-chip shortage he called a "100-year flood," where AI data centers are hogging so many chips that Apple may not be able to build enough iPhones and Macs to meet demand this fall.

🐂 The Bull Case:

• 🔥 Demand won't slow down: iPhone sales are on track to grow 25% this year, and Apple still can't make enough to meet demand.

• 🌏 China bounced back: Sales in Greater China jumped 22%, easing one of Wall Street's biggest concerns.

• 👑 Still on top: Apple recently reclaimed its crown as the world's most valuable company, with a market value nearing $5 trillion.

🐻 The Bear Case:

• 🔧 Orders but no products: A chip shortage during the fall launch means Apple could leave sales on the table.

• 💸 Margins under pressure: Rising memory costs will squeeze gross margins to 47-48%, and Mac and iPad prices are already climbing.

• 🤖 AI is still the weak spot: Unlike rivals pouring hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, Apple spends far less, leans on partners for some AI capabilities and still hasn't delivered its promised Siri upgrade.

The Munch Take: Apple just reminded us that there are two report cards every earnings season. One is written by the company, and the other by Wall Street. Apple aced the first one with record revenue, record iPhone sales and a comeback in China. It failed the second because investors wanted an even brighter future. Considering Apple recently hit a $5 trillion valuation and was up 20% this year, there’s also some profit taking going on and there’s nothing wrong with that. Does Apple continue to print money? Absolutely. Do we think there’s better priced stocks out there? Yes. The memory-chip shortage looks more like a bump in the road than a broken engine, but whether it's a temporary hiccup or a bigger problem that weighs on the stock over the next few quarters is something only time will tell.

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CHART OF THE DAY

🥇 Gold Just Hit A Bearish Milestone Not Seen Since 2022

Gold has now closed below its 200-day moving average for 39 straight trading days, the longest such stretch since the 2022 bear market. The metal sits near $4,049, down about 28% from its January record of $5,594. For an asset that spent two years in a near-uninterrupted climb, that's a real change of character.

Quick translation: the 200-day moving average is the line traders use to judge a market's long-term trend. Above it, things look healthy. Below it for this long, the trend has clearly cooled. A hawkish Fed, a stronger dollar, and rising bond yields have all pulled money away from gold, which pays no interest and looks less attractive when bonds pay more.

🐂 The Bull Case:

• 📈 The 2022 echo: Last time gold spent this long below the line, it launched a multi-year rally to record highs. History could rhyme.

• 🏦 Central banks keep buying: Governments are still stockpiling gold to diversify away from the dollar, a steady source of demand.

• 📉 Oversold signals: Momentum readings suggest the selling may be stretched and due for a bounce.

🐻 The Bear Case:

• 💵 Rates are the enemy: With a rate hike now more likely than a cut, non-yielding gold stays unattractive.

• ⚰️ The other 2022 lesson: That same year, gold also broke down and slid hundreds of dollars before recovering. Not every dip bounces fast.

• 🎯 Support is thin: A clean break below $4,000 could open the door toward $3,500.

The Munch Take: With yields hitting 20 year highs and interest rate hikes on the way, investors will likely keep turning away from gold because it doesn’t pay any interest. But that won’t last forever. Long-term, considering the looming national debt crisis and persistent inflation, gold is great to protect wealth. But build it? Probably not so much, as real returns after inflation aren’t that mouth-watering.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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