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📉 Risk-Off Returns
Pip Munch
November 19, 2025
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☕️ GM Munchers! I tried to buy the dip yesterday but my broker app literally asked if I was sure. Not a great sign.
On today’s menu:
📉 Risk-Off Returns & Cloudflare Breaks The Internet
⏰ It All Comes Down To This: Nvidia’s Moment
👀 Fear Is High — Which Is Exactly When You Hunt
💪 Met Wins Big Lawsuit
😬 Japan’s Bond Market Is Going Insane
Yesterday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,617 | -0.83% |
Nasdaq | 22,432 | -1.21% |
Dow Jones | 46,091 | -1.07% |
Bitcoin | $92,500 | -0.47% |
BREAKING NEWS
📉 Risk-Off Returns: Bitcoin Dumps, Dow Slumps
Yesterday the entire market acted like it got a bad text from its ex.
Bitcoin crashed below $90K at one point
Dow was down nearly 700 points intraday
Nvidia fell more than 1%
Microsoft and Amazon also dropped
Translation? This wasn’t just tech weakness — it was broad de-risking. When the Dow gets punched in the face, you know people are running from risk like it’s a tax audit.
Why?
Sentiment is fragile. Investors are suddenly questioning valuations for AI names, blue chips, and crypto. Everyone wants to de-risk before today’s Nvidia earnings — because nobody wants to be the clown holding max exposure if things go sideways.
The Munch Take
This is classic risk-off:
Crypto bleeds first
Big Tech sees forced selling
Indexes puke
If we get weak data or bad earnings today, brace yourself — it gets uglier.
💻️ Cloudflare Breaks the Internet (Literally)
If you felt like half the internet was down yesterday morning, it’s because… it was.
A Cloudflare outage temporarily knocked out:
ChatGPT
X (Twitter)
Shopify
Trump’s Truth Social
And a long list of other sites
Cloudflare said the “root cause” was an automatically generated configuration file that basically freaked out when traffic spiked. No attack, no hack — just a software meltdown.
The stock:
Dropped 5% intraday
Recovered to close down less than 2%
Not bad for a company that accidentally unplugged half the internet before breakfast.
Context:
Cloudflare has been a beast this year — up 76% thanks to 31% YoY revenue growth and 23% growth in large customer accounts.
The Munch Take
This didn’t dent long-term sentiment, but it’s a reminder:
When one company handles ~20% of the web, their “oops” becomes everyone’s problem.
For traders, it’s noise — unless outages become a pattern.
💪 Nvidia Earnings Today: Buckle Up
The main event is here. Nvidia reports earnings, and the stakes are absurd.
Options imply a 7% move in either direction
That’s a potential $320 billion market cap move
Nvidia is roughly 8% of the S&P 500
Here’s the real point:
You don’t need to trade Nvidia for Nvidia to trade you.
If the largest company in the world says anything that spooks investors — demand, margins, supply chain, AI spending — the entire market gets dragged.
Sentiment is already sketchy.
Cloudflare outage. Bitcoin slipping. Broad tech selling.
One bad data point from NVDA and we’re back to “AI bubble???” discourse.
The Munch Take
This is the definition of event risk:
If NVDA crushes? Risk-on everywhere.
If NVDA disappoints? Get ready for a correlated selloff across semis, hyperscalers, and anything with “AI” in the investor deck.
Either way, the market won’t be quiet today.
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BIG PICTURE
👀 Fear Is High — Which Is Exactly When You Hunt
If you needed a reminder that markets are built on chaos, The Kobeissi Letter delivered the cheat sheet. Here’s the perspective:
Bitcoin averages two -20% drops a year
Ether averages three -20% drops
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each average four -5% declines
Gold averages one -10% decline
The VIX spikes above 20 about 40 times a year
And the average S&P 500 stock drops -20% once every 12 months
Translation?
What you’re seeing right now — fear, volatility, “is the bull market dead?” energy — is normal. Not comfortable, but normal.
The problem is most traders zoom in so tight they convince themselves every pullback is the apocalypse. Meanwhile, the people who make real money zoom out, keep their head, and accumulate while everyone else is emotionally speed-running a meltdown.
Right now, sentiment is a mess. Bitcoin dipped under $90K, stocks are jittery, and everyone’s acting like volatility is a sign something’s broken.
But this is exactly when opportunity shows up.
We’re stacking Bitcoin here — slowly, rationally, unemotionally — because these are the moments you actually get paid for having a spine. And if BTC isn’t your play, don’t worry: stocks, gold, and even volatility itself are setting up big chances.
Fear is fuel. Use it.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
$HD
Looks like I’m not the only one avoiding home projects. Home Depot cut its earnings outlook after home-improvement demand came in weak, and the stock got hammered 5%. Turns out nobody wants to spend $600 fixing a cabinet they broke trying to fix a cabinet.
$META
Meta scored a big win in its FTC antitrust case over WhatsApp and Instagram. The judge said Meta doesn’t have a monopoly in social media — which is funny, because my screen time chart looks like it was built by Zuckerberg himself.
$GOOGL
Eight months after Gemini 2.5, Google rolled out Gemini 3. The big pitch? You’ll get results with “less prompting.” Cool. Wake me up when it starts paying taxes or cleaning my office.
$T.TSX
JPMorgan downgraded Telus, saying its 8.3% dividend “reflects uncertainty.” Translation: that juicy yield might not be the gift it looks like. Proceed like you’re meeting your in-laws for the first time.
$TM
Toyota is dropping $912 million into U.S. plants to ramp up hybrid production. Not EVs. Hybrids. The grown-up version of “let’s not overcommit.”
🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
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