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☕️ GM Munchers! If you’re having a rough morning, just be grateful you’re not Egypt, who were up 2-0 on Argentina with 11 minutes left and somehow lost 3-2. That is the sports version of watching your portfolio turn green all day and then bleed out in the final hour.

On today’s menu:

• 🛢️ The US & Iran Start Poking Each Other Again

• 🚀 SpaceX Joined The Big Leagues But Still Crashed

• 💪 These Stocks Just Got Upgraded

• 💾 SanDisk Crashed 14% Because Its Rival Went Shopping

• 🤑 Get Your Free Advanced AI Engine

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

🛢️ Oil Jumps As The US & Iran Start Poking Each Other Again

If you only read one thing today, make it this. While everyone has been staring at wild swings in tech and chip stocks, the real story quietly bubbling up this week is happening thousands of miles away in a narrow strip of ocean in the Middle East. And it could touch everything from your gas tank to your grocery bill, which is exactly why it belongs at the top of your morning.

Here is what happened. Oil had a jumpy day, with Brent crude, the world's main oil price, shooting above $76 a barrel. Two big things collided at once to send it there:

• 🚢 Iran attacked three ships. The strikes happened near the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water where about 20% of the world's oil sails through. It is basically the busiest oil highway on the planet.

• 🚫 The US hit back fast. In response, the government canceled Iran's permission to sell its oil, which means less Iranian oil flowing into the world market.

• ⛽ The math is simple. Less oil for sale plus scary headlines near the world's most important shipping lane equals higher prices. That is the whole story in one line.

What should regular investors watch? Keep an eye on two things: the price at the gas pump, because oil feeds straight into it, and whether more ships get hit. If the Strait of Hormuz actually gets blocked, that is when things get serious for the whole economy.

The Munch Take: Here is what is interesting. A year ago, a headline like this would have sent the market into a full-blown panic, with oil rocketing past $100 like it did back in March. Yesterday? Oil ticked up and everyone mostly shrugged. The market has seen this movie a few times now, and it is starting to treat Iran flare-ups like background noise rather than a fire alarm. Unless this really escalates into ships getting blocked and the strait shutting down, our bet is that this one quietly blows over like all the others have these past few months. Stay calm, watch the pump, and do not let a scary headline scare you out of a good plan.

🚀 SpaceX Joined The Big Leagues But The Stock Fell Anyway

Talk about a party pooper. Yesterday SpaceX officially joined the Nasdaq-100, one of the most famous clubs in the stock market. It’s supposed to be great news, because it forces big funds to buy the stock. Instead, the stock dropped about 7% and fell below $150, sliding under its original starting price. Ouch.

Here is the thing though: this is not surprising at all. New stocks do this constantly.

• 📈 The pop-then-drop is a classic move. When a hot company goes public, everyone piles in fast, the price rockets, and then reality sets in and it tumbles. It happens over and over.

• 📉 Even Facebook did it. Facebook went public at $38 in 2012, then crashed more than 50% to under $18. It took over a year just to climb back to its starting price. Today it is one of the most valuable companies on Earth.

• 🎲 The odds are humbling. A study found that of the 50 biggest recent IPOs, you would have done better in a boring index fund about three out of four times.

The bull case: SpaceX is a once-in-a-generation company. Starlink just passed 10 million subscribers, it launches more rockets than anyone alive, and Elon Musk has a habit of proving doubters wrong. If Elon delivers on his many promises, today’s price looks cheao.

The bear case: It loses money and trades at over 100 times its sales, which is nosebleed expensive. Worse, a flood of insider shares gets unlocked starting August 6, meaning lots more selling could be coming right around the corner.

The Munch Take: Here is my straight answer: this is not a buy right now, and I am sitting on my hands. I love the company, but loving a company and buying its stock at any price are two very different things. History could not be clearer that brand-new IPOs almost always get cheaper after the hype cools, and with a mountain of insider shares about to unlock next month, the smart move is patience. Let the fireworks fizzle, let the insiders sell, and see the first real earnings report before you even think about it. Great companies go on sale all the time. You just have to be disciplined enough to wait for the register to ring. When in doubt, let the crowd rush in first and get burned. You can always buy later.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🎨 $FIG Figma advanced 5.27% after Bank of America slapped a Buy rating on it, calling AI a long-term tailwind. If the AI fears are overblown, this could be an incredible buy as its down over 40% this year.

☁️ $NET Cloudflare jumped 8.6% after Scotiabank upgraded the stock, pointing to growing faith in its AI plumbing business. Turns out being the pipes behind the internet is a pretty good place to be right now.

🛻 $RIVN Rivian Automotive got wrecked, down 18.12%, after announcing plans to sell 75 million new shares to help pay back a government loan. Selling a flood of new shares waters down everyone else's slice, and investors hate watering down.

⚡ $SMNSF Siemens Energy sank 5.17% on an analyst downgrade, dragging rivals GE Vernova and Caterpillar down 6.51% and 3.07% with it. When one power player stumbles, the whole neighborhood feels the jolt.

🧲 $USAR USA Rare Earth tumbled 8.11% after congressional Democrats widened their probe into the government's $1.6 billion investment in the company. Nothing spooks investors quite like the words "widening investigation."

STOCK OF THE DAY

💾 SanDisk Crashed 14% Because Its Rival Went Shopping

Here’s a weird one. SanDisk, one of the hottest stocks of the year, dropped a brutal 14% yesterday but it wasn’t because SanDisk did anything wrong. It was because a rival, SK Hynix, announced it’s spending a jaw-dropping $51 billion to build a giant new memory-chip factory.

Why does that hurt SanDisk? Because SanDisk makes the storage chips that AI data centers are gobbling up. Right now there is a shortage, which means high prices and fat profits. But if a rival builds a massive new factory, that shortage could turn into a flood, and floods push prices down.

Here's why it has been sliding from its high:

• 📉 Too much, too fast. This stock is up around 600% this year. After a rocket ride like that, even small bad news makes traders rush to lock in profits.

• 🌊 Fear of a flood. The whole reason profits are booming is tight supply. New factories threaten to end the party.

• 🔄 The AI trade got the jitters. Money has been rotating out of hot chip stocks this week across the board, and SanDisk got swept up in it.

📈 The bull case: The business is on fire. Last quarter revenue nearly doubled, margins exploded, and SanDisk has already locked in about $42 billion in future sales through multi-year contracts. That new rival factory does not even open until 2029, so the shortage is very much alive right now.

📉 The bear case: Memory chips are famous for booms and busts. Prices spike when supply is tight, then crash when everyone builds too many factories. That $51 billion rival plant is exactly the kind of thing that ends a boom, and a stock up 600% has a very long way to fall.

The Munch Take: Here is my honest answer: this is not a buy for us today, and it is not because the company is bad. It is because the price already ran 600% and the whole game here is timing a cycle, which is one of the hardest things in all of investing. Memory stocks are notorious for punishing the folks who show up late and mistake the top of the mountain for flat ground. The business is genuinely excellent, but "excellent business" and "smart buy after a 600% run" are not the same sentence. I would rather watch this one cool off, wait for a much cheaper price that gives me room for error, and lose a little upside than chase a red-hot cyclical right as its rivals start building. When the whole story depends on a shortage lasting, the smart money watches the supply, not the hype.

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