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☕️ GM Munchers! My portfolio is recovering, but my wife says my hairline isn’t. Some things just don’t bounce back.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 Stocks Are Recovering... But For How Long?

• ⚡ Oil Prices Surge—Geopolitics Just Got Messy

• 👀 Yen Watch: What Traders Need to Know Right Now

• 🤑 Michael Saylor Buys More Bitcoin

• 🤯 Pepsi Buys This Shark Tank Company For $1.7 Billion

MARKET OVERVIEW

📉 Stocks Are Recovering... But For How Long?

The stock market just pulled off a minor comeback, but before we pop the champagne, there’s a catch.

After a brutal few weeks that saw the S&P 500 tumble into correction territory (a 10% drop from recent highs), the index is staging a two-day rally.

The Dow gained 353 points (+0.85%), the S&P 500 climbed 0.64%, and the Nasdaq added 0.31% as traders scooped up beaten-down stocks.

But here’s the problem: nothing has really changed.

Let’s break down the market’s “meh” recovery and why traders are still on edge.

🚨 Traders Brace for Fed Week

All eyes are now on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, where Jerome Powell will reveal whether the Fed is finally ready to cut rates… or if traders need to keep waiting like a retail trader refreshing for their payout.

The market is 99% certain the Fed will hold rates steady.

But what really matters is Powell’s economic projections—AKA, the clues about whether rate cuts are coming sooner or later.

Investors have been betting on multiple rate cuts this year, but if Powell suggests fewer cuts or that inflation is still too high, the recent bounce could vanish faster than a trader ignoring stop losses.

💰 The S&P 500 Is Rebounding—But There’s a Catch

Sure, the stock market is rebounding, but some warning signs are flashing:

🔻 New York factory activity just hit its lowest level in nearly two years.
📉 Homebuilder sentiment dropped to a seven-month low thanks to higher costs from tariffs.
🚨 The Atlanta Fed just cut its Q1 GDP growth estimate to a -2.1% contraction, down from -1.6%.

In other words, the economy isn’t looking so hot. And while the market loves a good Fed pivot, a recession would bring a whole new kind of pain for stocks.

🔥 What’s Next?

The S&P 500’s bounce looks nice on paper, but this week will be a make-or-break moment for the rally.

Here’s what to watch:

✅ Tuesday: Economic data on imports, housing, and production
✅ Wednesday: Fed’s rate decision and Powell’s press conference
✅ Stock futures: Currently flat—aka, traders are waiting on Powell

If Powell plays nice and signals rate cuts are coming soon, the rally could extend.

But if he throws cold water on those hopes? We might see another dip.

For now, keep the charts tight and the risk management tighter—because the real market move is coming Wednesday.

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COMMODITIES

⚡ Oil Prices Surge—Geopolitics Just Got Messy

Crude prices have surged following fresh geopolitical tensions, and if history has taught us anything, these types of moves don’t happen in isolation.

🔺 What’s Driving Oil Higher?

President Trump just issued a stark warning: the U.S. will hold Iran responsible for any future attacks by the Houthis. 

This comes after a new wave of U.S. airstrikes targeted the militant group, escalating concerns about energy supply disruptions in the Middle East.

The Red Sea, a crucial shipping route for global oil trade, has already seen repeated Houthi-led attacks, raising fears that tensions could further impact supply chains.

As a result, WTI crude climbed to $67.49, reflecting growing uncertainty in the energy markets.

📈 Market Reaction

Oil’s move wasn’t the only headline-grabber today:

• Gold also jumped by $15 to $2,999, as investors sought safe-haven assets.

• Stock indexes climbed with the S&P 500 up 0.65% and the Dow gaining 0.85%, showing resilience despite the geopolitical risks.

• Bond markets held steady, with 10-year yields flat at 4.30%, as traders balanced economic uncertainty with risk-on sentiment.

🌍 What’s Next?

The energy market is now on edge, waiting to see if Iran responds to Trump’s warning. Any additional retaliation or conflict escalation could send oil even higher.

For now, oil traders are strapped in—because volatility is back, and things could get even messier from here. 🚀

FOREX

👀 Yen Watch: What Traders Need to Know Right Now

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is making moves, and if you’re a trader, you need to pay attention.

As one of the world’s premier safe-haven currencies, the Yen’s performance gives us a clear read on risk sentiment across global markets.

And right now? It’s flashing some interesting signals.

🔥 What’s Happening With the Yen?

The USD/JPY pair climbed toward 149.00 in Monday’s session, with the Yen underperforming against a generally upbeat market.

While traders were optimistic about potential peace talks between the U.S. and Russia, the JPY failed to gain much ground as riskier assets outperformed.

However, the Yen did show strength against the Euro, making it the best-performing currency against the EUR on the day.

Meanwhile, NZD and AUD led the gains in risk assets, further reinforcing the risk-on mood.

🔎 Why This Matters

• The Yen Is a Risk Barometer – When traders are worried, the Yen strengthens as money moves into safer assets. When markets are risk-on, the Yen tends to weaken.

• Geopolitics Are at Play – Trump is set to meet with Putin, and Ukraine might agree to a 30-day ceasefire. Any shift in these talks could see the Yen reacting swiftly.

• Upcoming Catalysts – The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy decision and Japan’s CPI report are due Wednesday and Friday, making the Yen a currency to watch closely.

📊 Big Picture for Traders

With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision coming Wednesday, along with BoJ policy announcements, the Yen could be a crucial tell for what’s next in markets.

If risk-off sentiment returns, expect the JPY to strengthen. But if optimism remains, the Yen may continue to lag against higher-yielding currencies.

Bottom line: Keep an eye on the Yen—it’s more than just another forex pair. It’s a global risk gauge, and right now, it’s hinting at cautious optimism.

PROP FIRMS

🤑 Tuesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. Pepsi is paying $1.7 billion for this drink that launched on Shark Tank.

2. Trump says the JFK files will be released today.

3. A delivery driver wins $50 million in court after dropping a hot Starbucks drink on his you know what.

4. Michael Saylor buys another 130 Bitcoin for $10.7 million.

5. Feeling discouraged? Check this out.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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