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☕️ GM Munchers! Markets are climbing, rates are cutting, and the NZD is falling faster than my motivation on a Wednesday afternoon. Let’s break it all down.

On today’s menu:

• 🚗 Tariff Troubles Ahead? Trump Eyes Auto, Pharma, and Chip Imports

• 🏦 RBNZ Slashes Rates Again—Here’s How Markets Reacted

• 📉 Meta Breaks Its Historic Winning Streak

• ❌ A Prop Firm Red Flag

TRADE WAR

Tariff Troubles Ahead? Trump Eyes Auto, Pharma, and Chip Imports

Ever feel like the markets are that friend who smiles while their house is on fire?

Yeah, that’s basically what’s happening right now.

🚨 Tariffs Loom… But Markets Shrug

Yesterday, Trump floated the idea of slapping a 25% tariff on imported autos—targeting Europe and Asia hard.

Semiconductors and pharmaceuticals might get hit, too.

He even hinted that these could roll out as early as April 2.

Markets should’ve panicked, right?

Trade wars = market headaches… usually.

But instead?

The S&P 500 just said, “Nah, I’m good” and hit a new all-time high, closing up 4.45% YTD.

It’s like the market is speedrunning “ignore the bad news” mode.

Why the disconnect? 🤔

Traders are betting that tariffs won’t come to full force or that negotiations will water them down.

Plus, the market’s been riding high on strong earnings and a classic case of hopium—because hey, maybe the Fed will cut rates soon… right?

📈 S&P 500 Hits Record High—But Should You Trust It?

The S&P 500 soaring to fresh highs despite looming trade tensions feels… weird.

It’s like eating ice cream while watching a storm roll in. Sweet, but you know it’s temporary.

Here’s what’s propping things up:

• Mega-cap tech is carrying the market on its back (thanks, Nvidia and friends).

• Strong earnings have kept investor confidence alive.

• And traders keep whispering sweet nothings about rate cuts into the market’s ear.

But the real test is coming today.

📝 Fed Minutes Drop Today—Will They Kill the Party?

The FOMC minutes from January are landing later today, and they could either keep the hopium flowing or slap some reality into the markets.

Here’s the setup:

• Inflation’s still sticky, but markets are pricing in rate cuts like they’re inevitable.

• If the Fed minutes sound even remotely hawkish, expect a reality check.

• If they’re dovish? Well, the market’s sugar high might last a bit longer.

💡 What This Means for Traders:

1. Tariff Risk Is Real: Markets are brushing it off for now, but trade tensions can escalate fast. Keep stops tight and don’t trust every rally.

2. Watch the Fed Minutes: They’ll likely set the tone for the rest of the week. Hawkish tone? Markets might wobble. Dovish? More highs incoming.

3. Risk-On Mood Is Fragile: The market’s running on vibes and hopium. One bad headline could flip sentiment fast.

So, buckle up, stay glued to your charts (and, let’s be honest, Twitter), and let’s see if the market keeps its blinders on… or finally looks up and sees the storm clouds. 🌩

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CENTRAL BANKS

🏦 RBNZ Slashes Rates Again—What It Means for Traders (Even If You Don’t Touch NZD) 💸

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) just took the scissors out—again—cutting rates for the third time in a row.

And while you might be thinking, “I don’t trade NZD, why should I care?”… well, here’s why you should.

💥 RBNZ Cuts Rates… Again

The RBNZ just slashed its cash rate target by another 50bps, and the NZD is feeling it—now sitting at 0.57 USD against the dollar.

With another cut, the NZD/USD chart is starting to look worse than my diet on a weekend—just one massive slump with no signs of bouncing back.

And with expectations of more cuts in April, May, and July, it’s clear the RBNZ isn’t done yet.

The New Zealand economy is flashing warning signs—slowing growth, sticky inflation, and a housing market that's starting to wobble.

Rate cuts are their go-to tool to soften the blow.

But Here’s The Real Question…

If New Zealand’s cutting, Australia’s already cutting, Europe’s been dovish, and Japan is still stuck in the eternal low-rates club, why is the Federal Reserve still holding the line?

The Fed is the last major central bank standing, keeping rates elevated and playing tough against inflation.

But how long can that last?

📉 NZD Is Getting Smoked—But It’s Not Just About NZD

Even if you don’t trade NZD pairs, this move tells you something critical about global markets.

1. 🇺🇲 The USD remains king. As central banks cut rates globally, the USD keeps flexing. The NZD/USD chart shows that—the Kiwi’s been crushed over the past year, down from 0.65 to 0.57. And it’s not just NZD. Similar stories are playing out with AUD, JPY, and EUR.
   

2. 💥 Risk sentiment is fragile. Rate cuts are meant to stimulate economies, but when central banks are cutting aggressively, it also signals they’re worried. Markets love easy money, but when every central bank is panicking? That’s when traders start asking the tough questions.
   

3. 🤔 The Fed’s Isolation—Outlier or Just Late? 
   
   The million-dollar question right now:

   • Is the U.S. economy really strong enough to avoid rate cuts while everyone else crumbles?

   • Or is this just a delayed reaction, with the Fed eventually being forced to follow the global easing trend?

If the Fed sticks to its guns, the USD could continue its dominance, crushing weaker currencies and sending risk assets lower.

But if cracks start to form and the Fed hints at future cuts? That could flip the script fast—and we’d see a massive risk-on rally.

💡 Final Thought:

Right now, markets are in a global game of chicken—waiting to see if the Fed will blink.

Rate cuts from the RBNZ are just another domino falling.

Will the U.S. stand tall, or is it just a matter of time before Powell & Co. grab the scissors too?

That’s what the market cares about right now—and it’s what you should be watching. 📊

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. Meta broke its 20-day winning streak by having its first red day yesterday. It was the longest winning streak in megacap history.

2. This is a prop firm red flag. If 2024 taught us anything, it’s that we can’t trust promises. Time in business is everything.

3. FTX started repaying customers today. But at 2022 prices?!

🍪 Munchy Memes

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