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📉 Tariffs, Layoffs, and Record Highs

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Pip Munch
July 03, 2025

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☕️ GM Munchers! Markets are up, Tesla’s down, and I just spent $18 on a smoothie my wife said “tastes spiritual.” Let’s break it all down.

On today’s menu:

  • 📉 Tariffs, Layoffs, and Record Highs

  • ✅ NFP Drops Today — Why It Matters

  • 💰️ We Made 120% On This Stock

  • 😏 Is Bitcoin About To Make History?

  • 😬 Commercial Real Estate Is Getting Destroyed

Yesterday’s numbers:

S&P 500

6,227

+0.47%

Nasdaq

20,393

+0.94%

Dow Jones

44,484

-0.02%

Bitcoin

$109,500

+3.59%

BREAKING NEWS

📦 Trump Drops a Tariff Bomb on Vietnam

Trump posted on Truth Social (so, you know it’s official) that the U.S. struck a new trade deal with Vietnam.

The highlight?

A 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports—plus a spicy 40% tariff on goods rerouted through Vietnam from other countries (hi, China 👋).

What’s in it for the U.S.?

  • Tariff-free access to Vietnam’s markets

  • A big slap to transshippers

  • A subtle flex before the 90-day tariff pause expires

Why it matters:

  • Nike jumped 4% after the deal—Vietnam makes a ton of their shoes

  • It’s bullish for U.S. manufacturing and commodities tied to export flows

  • Vietnamese suppliers now have to either eat margin or pass on higher costs, which could spike prices

What traders should watch:

  • Risk-on assets (S&P 500, Nike, exporters) may stay hot

  • Vietnamese currency volatility could rise

  • Watch for China’s reaction—this could ripple through EM

📈 Markets Hit a New High… Again

The S&P 500 hit another intraday record. Nasdaq jumped nearly 1%. Dow? Flat—probably still mad about getting left out of the group chat.

What’s driving it?

  • A sugar rush from Trump’s Vietnam deal

  • Rate cut rumors getting louder

  • Tech stocks finally taking the wheel again

Translation:
Investors are betting the Fed’s gonna blink. Weak jobs data (more on that below) has folks hoping for a rate cut at the July meeting. Traders saw that and yelled: “BUY EVERYTHING!”

Watch next:

  • July 4th week = thinner volume, more volatility

  • Any signal from the Fed = instant sentiment swing

  • Don't be the guy buying the top because Powell smiled on TV

💼 Microsoft Fires 9,000 People. Should We Be Worried?

Microsoft dropped a “Happy Fiscal New Year” memo—by laying off 9,000 workers. That’s 4% of their workforce and the latest in a long line of Big Tech belt-tightening.

But here’s the real kicker:
ADP also reported the private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June. That’s the first monthly decline since March 2023, and way off the expected +100,000. Oof.

What it signals:

  • Labor market cooling = potential recession flags

  • Rate cut odds now at 23% for July

  • Traders are torn: “Do I cheer for bad news because of the Fed... or panic because it's bad?”

What to watch:

  • If NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) miss today, buckle up

  • Microsoft isn’t the market—but it might be the canary in the server farm

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CRYPTO

📉 NFP Drops Today — Why It Matters

Today at 8:30 AM ET, the US jobs report (aka NFP) drops—and it could be the spark (or ice bath) for the next big market move.

Here’s the setup:

  • Expected: +120K jobs (down from recent prints)

  • Unemployment: Rising to 4.3% (highest in 2.5 years)

  • Wages: +0.3% m/m — slightly cooler than last month

Translation? The labor market’s cooling like your wife’s enthusiasm for your “side hustle.”

Why it matters:

  • Weaker jobs = more pressure on the Fed to cut rates

  • Traders are already pricing in 66bps of cuts this year (aka 2.5 cuts)

  • A big miss could supercharge those bets and slam the USD

What to watch next:

  • If NFP comes in under 100K: Risk-on rally. Dollar weakens. Gold, BTC, and stocks jump.

  • If NFP surprises to the upside: Rate cut bets get delayed. Dollar pops. Equities could puke.

Remember: The Fed’s next meeting is July 30, CPI drops July 15, and the DXY is already sitting near 3-year lows.

Long story short: NFP could break the chop and send markets trending again.

So maybe don’t sleep through it, even if it is a long weekend and your trades have been ghosting you all week.

👀 We’ll break it all down for you after the drop. Stay tuned.

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

$COIN ( ▼ 2.52% ) Coinbase pumped +5% yesterday after buying something called LiquiFi, a “token management platform.” Do we know what that means? Not even a little. But we do know COIN is up nearly 120% since we called it earlier this year. So yeah—your bags are welcome.

$TSLA ( ▲ 3.64% ) Tesla’s deliveries fell -14%... and the stock jumped +5%. Make it make sense. It’s Tesla’s second straight YoY drop, but apparently markets expected an even worse number. Classic case of “bad news is good news”—or as we call it, Elon economics.

$NKE ( ▼ 1.91% ) Nike shot up +4% after a fresh trade deal with Vietnam. Why’s that bullish? Because the swoosh was sweating a $1B tariff bill—and this news just shaved some cost pressure. Translation: Nike’s back to jumping like 1996 Jordan. It’s now up a modest +3% YTD.

$LULU ( ▼ 18.58% ) Meanwhile, Lululemon is limping into Q3 like it ran a marathon in foam flip-flops. Down -33% this year and barely moved on the same Vietnam trade deal. Maybe $130 leggings made of petroleum aren’t vibing with inflation-era wallets.

$HOOD ( ▼ 1.61% ) Robinhood just hit $100/share after ripping another +6% yesterday. That’s a +30% gain since the S&P500 said “nah, you’re good.” We call that a spite rally—and honestly, we respect it.

Your career will thank you.

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PROP FIRMS

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