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The Biggest Lie Traders Believe (and Why It’s Costing You Everything)
PLUS: Why China’s Economy Is Falling Apart 🇨🇳

Lark Funding just launched their Instant Funding Program and is offering you Munchers 11% off with the code JANUARY2025.
☕️ GM Munchers! Remember, trading is the only profession where you can lose money for six months straight and still tell people, “I’m just fine-tuning my strategy.” 😂
On today’s menu:
Want To Make 20% a Month? Here’s Why You’re Dreaming 😴
Is China Collapsing? 🇨🇳
Will More Countries Buy Bitcoin In 2025? 😏
Canada’s Future PM Sits Down With Jordan Peterson 🇨🇦
Want to Make 20% a Month? You’re Dreaming (Here’s Why) 😴
Let’s talk about something most traders don’t want to hear.
You’re not going to make 20% a month.
Heck, even the best hedge funds in the world—armed with PhDs, armies of analysts, and billions of dollars—are pulling in annual returns of 20-30%.
And yet, here we are, a bunch of retail traders thinking we can 10X our accounts by YOLOing trades with 50x leverage.
Trust me, I’ve been there.
For years, I thought I was just one lucky streak away from turning my $1,000 account into $1 million.
Seven full-margin trades.
That’s all it’d take.
Spoiler alert: It didn’t happen.
What did happen? I blew account after account faster than you can say “stop loss.”
The problem isn’t dreaming big.
It’s that these unrealistic expectations set us up to fail.
Reality Check
Let’s look at the numbers:
DE Shaw, Bridgewater China, and StatAr raked in 20-36% in 2024.
The S&P 500, with its best year since 1998, was up 23.8%.
Do these numbers scream “make 20% per month”? Not even close.

So Why Does This Matter?
Your expectations shape your actions.
When I thought 20% a month was doable, I traded recklessly.
Huge positions, tiny stop losses, and constant overtrading—because how else could I hit those absurd targets?
But here’s the thing: Trading isn’t gambling. If you want to gamble, go to Vegas. The drinks are free, and at least you’ll have fun.
If you want to trade—to consistently extract money from the markets—then it’s time to kill the fantasy and embrace the grind.
The Magic of Patience
Here’s an experiment:
Go to a compound interest calculator.
Plug in an annual return of 20%.
Watch how that $10,000 grows over 5, 10, or 20 years.
The numbers will blow your mind.

And guess what?
You don’t need to risk blowing up your account to achieve them.
The catch? It takes time.
And that’s the one thing most traders refuse to give themselves.
So, Will You Be Different?
If you’re ready to stop chasing lottery tickets and start building a real skill, then lower your expectations and raise your standards.
Because at the end of the day, dreams don’t crush traders. Unrealistic expectations do.
Now go crush 2025 like a trader who gets it.

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MARKET OUTLOOK
Why China’s Economy Is Falling Apart 🇨🇳
Munchers, we need to talk about China—and no, not about their legendary street food.
We're talking about their 10-year bond yield dropping below 1.60% for the first time in history.
WOW.
China's 10-Year Note Yield is now below 1.60% for the first time in history.
The yield is now down 100+ basis points in over the last year.
China and the US are moving in opposite directions.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)
2:15 AM • Jan 3, 2025
While US yields are flexing their muscles, China's are on a downward spiral, and it’s creating a clear picture of two economies heading in opposite directions.
So, what’s happening, why does it matter, and how do traders like us profit?
Let’s break it down.👇
Why Is China’s Yield Falling?
When bond yields fall, it’s like the economy waving a white flag and saying, “I’m struggling.”
Here’s what’s driving this historic drop:
Weaker Growth Prospects 📉
China’s post-COVID recovery hasn’t lived up to the hype. Between a real estate crisis, weak consumer demand, and a slowdown in exports, their economy is looking fragile. Investors are piling into government bonds as a safe haven, driving yields lower.Central Bank Intervention 🏦
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been easing monetary policy to stimulate growth. Lower rates and potential bond-buying programs are adding downward pressure on yields.Capital Flight 🧑✈️
With the US offering higher yields, foreign investors are pulling money out of China faster than I exit a bad trade. Lower yields make Chinese assets even less attractive, adding to the problem.
Meanwhile, in the US…
The US 10-year Treasury yield is chilling at 4.22%.
Why?
Because the Fed hasn’t fully pivoted to rate cuts yet.
Jerome Powell is still cautiously optimistic about the economy, keeping yields elevated.

This divergence tells a simple story: China is trying to save its economy, while the US is holding steady in a higher-for-longer environment.
Implications for Traders 💻️
USD/CNY Could Get Wild
Lower yields in China make the yuan less attractive, potentially weakening it further. As the yuan slides, we could see USD/CNY break higher. If you’re a currency trader, buckle up.Watch the AUD
The Australian dollar (AUD) is often used as a proxy for the Chinese yuan because of Australia’s heavy reliance on exports to China (think iron ore and coal). A weaker yuan could drag down the AUD, especially if China’s demand for commodities takes a hit.
Translation: Short AUD/USD could be in play here.Commodities Could Cool Off
A weaker Chinese economy spells trouble for commodities like copper, iron ore, and oil. If you trade these, pay attention to Chinese economic data and demand forecasts. Less construction and manufacturing in China = lower demand = potential price drops.Risk-Off Sentiment Might Build
Lower Chinese yields and a slowing economy could shift global sentiment toward risk-off assets like the USD, JPY, or even gold. Keep this in mind when building your trading game plan.
The Takeaway 🧵
China’s falling 10-year yield is a massive signal about the health of its economy.
For traders, it’s a story of divergence: the US looks stable, China is struggling, and this contrast creates opportunities in currency pairs, commodities, and even risk sentiment plays.
And remember, when China sneezes, the AUD often catches a cold. Don’t ignore it.
Stay sharp, Munchers!
What do you think of today's edition? |
☕️ Pre-Market Fuel
This truck driver made over $600,000 with Microstrategy stock. Just incredible!
Will more countries start buying Bitcoin? Polymarket says there’s a good chance.
Canada’s future prime minister sits down with Jordan Peterson for an almost 2-hour interview. This will be a good watch! 🇨🇦
🍪 Munchy Memes
rule #1: zoom out
rule #2: zoom out again
— Milk Road (@MilkRoadDaily)
9:45 PM • Dec 30, 2024
Me at absolutely any event
— Gordon (@AltcoinGordon)
4:36 PM • Dec 27, 2024
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