The Next $435B Energy Empire

John D. Rockefeller would be worth $435b today. But "oil money" is old news. Next up? A $2.1 trillion opportunity in "clean" coal. It's a "Rockefeller" moment for Frontieras, the company reforming coal into hydrogen and other valuable commodities. Their NASDAQ ticker 'FASF' is reserved.

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☕️ GM Munchers! I spent Sunday night trying to change a light fixture. Three hours, two YouTube videos, and one trip to the breaker box later, the light works. I don’t know why it works. I’ve chosen not to ask questions, which is also my approach to this market.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 Four Giants, One Fed, One Week

• 🍁 Hedge Funds Are Betting Against The Loonie

• 🚀 SpaceX Still Can’t Get Off The Ground

• 🍔 McDonald's Is Having Its Worst Year In Ages

• 👀 Michael Burry Is Bearish On This Stock

Friday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📉 Four Giants, One Fed, One Week

Good news for anyone who spent last week watching oil climb toward $100 and questing whether they’ll ever be able to fill up their tank The US and Iran held off on new strikes in the Persian Gulf for a second straight day over the weekend, and reports of fresh negotiations are now circulating. Oil took the hint and dropped hard.

Brent crude fell about 4.9% early Sunday to roughly $92, on top of a 3.9% slide Friday. That's a big reversal from last week, when Brent briefly touched $102 and everyone started doing inflation math again. Remember, oil has jumped more than 30% this month on fears the conflict would choke off supply through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries about 20% of the world's oil.

So the war premium is deflating. For now. But nobody should mistake a two-day pause for peace, and these talks have started and collapsed before. But for now, the market is feeling some relief.

Here's why this matters beyond the gas pump. Cheaper oil means less inflation pressure, which changes the entire conversation heading into the biggest week of the quarter.

• 📅 The Fed Decides Wednesday: The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rate decision at 2pm Wednesday under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Most expect a hold, but there's no dot plot this time, so Warsh's exact words will move markets more than the decision itself.

• 💻 Four Of The Big Seven Report: Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday after the close. Apple and Amazon follow Thursday. After Alphabet and Tesla both got punished last week for heavy AI spending, the whole market wants to see whether these four can prove the AI money is actually coming back as profit.

• 📊 The Data Stack: Consumer confidence lands Tuesday, second quarter GDP Thursday, and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge Thursday as well. Any one of them could swing the mood.

• Special Report: Trump's AI order could create one big winner (from Stansberry Research)

The Munch Take: This is the kind of week that can define the next month. Oil is calming down, the Fed is talking, and half the market's value reports earnings in 48 hours. If you were looking for a quiet summer week to ignore your portfolio, this is not it. My wife asked if we should brace for a wild week. I told her I was going to do nothing and watch. She said that's the same thing I do every week. The difference is this week it's actually the right call.

🍁 Hedge Funds Are Betting Against The Loonie

Hedge funds just built their largest short position against the Canadian dollar in two years. In plain English, the smart money is placing big bets that the loonie keeps falling. The currency sits near 1.41 per US dollar, meaning it takes about $1.41 Canadian to buy one American dollar.

Here's the lesson underneath it, and it's all about interest rates. Money flows toward wherever it earns the most. The Bank of Canada has its rate parked at 2.25% while the US Federal Reserve sits up near 3.50%. That gap gives investors a reason to sell Canadian dollars and hold American ones instead, because the American ones simply pay more to sit still.

Why won't Canada just raise rates to compete? Because it can't afford to. Growth is weak, and a low rate helps fund the government's large deficit. So Canada is choosing cheap money over a strong currency. That's the tradeoff, and the loonie is paying the price.

What it means for you:

• 💱 Forex traders: This is the trade everyone already knows about. When a short position gets this crowded, any good Canadian news can trigger a sharp snap-back as bets unwind.

• 📈 Regular investors: A weak loonie helps Canadian exporters who sell in US dollars and hurts Canadians buying anything priced in American dollars.

• 🧳 American tourists: Yes, it's a good time to visit Canada. Your dollar stretches about 41% further, so the trip effectively goes on sale.

Can you make money on it? Betting against a currency is hard and the crowd is already here, so the easy money likely left before you read this.

The Munch Take: A cheap currency is just a country making a choice, and Canada picked low rates and deficit spending over a strong loonie. Every currency tells you what its central bank is afraid of, and right now Canada is more afraid of a slowdown than a weak dollar.

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STOCK OF THE DAY

🍔 McDonald's Is Having Its Worst Year In Ages

McDonald's ($MCD) is down about 13% in 2026 and trading near $264, just above a fresh two-year low. Over the past five years the stock has gone roughly nowhere, climbing only 9% while the S&P 500 returned about 68%. For a company people call recession-proof, that's a rough stretch.

Here's the core problem in one number. US foot traffic fell 4.6% last quarter, with visits from low and middle income customers down nearly 10% from a year ago. CEO Chris Kempczinski flat out called it a divided economy, where wealthy diners keep showing up and everyone else is cutting back.

That matters because McDonald's customer base skews toward exactly the people getting squeezed by inflation and high gas prices. Value menus have helped win back some traffic, but not enough to offset the pullback.

• 💵 The stock's forward P/E has fallen to about 21, the cheapest McDonald's has looked in over a decade.

• 🏦 It's not a famous stock-picker's stock. The big holders are index funds like Vanguard and BlackRock, with value investor John Rogers Jr. among the notable active names.

• 📉 The all-time high near $341 sits about 30% above where shares trade now.

🐂 The Bull Case:

• 🍟 This is a high-quality business on sale. A 21 forward P/E on the world's dominant fast food chain doesn't come around often.

• 💰 The dividend keeps growing, and franchisees mean steady, high-margin cash flow through downturns.

• 🔄 If the low-income consumer recovers even a little, traffic and the stock could turn together.

• Free Report: This company is unlocking $2.1 trillion in energy (from Frontieras)

🐻 The Bear Case:

• 📊 The whole thesis rests on a consumer that management says is getting worse, not better.

• 🥩 Beef prices are elevated and franchisee costs keep climbing, squeezing margins across the system.

• 💊 GLP-1 weight loss drugs are a slow, real headwind for a company that sells burgers and fries.

So what are the odds it breaks below $200? That would require roughly another 25% drop from here. Nothing in the current picture suggests a fall that steep without a genuine recession, since even at two-year lows the business is still profitable and still gaining market share. Possible in a hard downturn, but it's not the base case anyone's modeling.

On a lighter note, prediction markets are apparently entertaining long-shot McDonald's bets, including a 9% chance the company announces a location in Cuba this year. File that under things nobody needs to trade but everyone enjoys watching.

The Munch Take: I'm not going to tell you whether to buy McDonald's, but I will confess I'm doing my part for the revenue line. Their $1 coffee has become a genuine guilty pleasure, and the employees at my location have started greeting me by first name. That's the point where a man has two options. Change his habits, or buy the stock and at least get paid a dividend for his loyalty. One of those requires willpower I clearly don't have, so I'm eyeing the other. If you have any thoughts on the stock, reply to this email. We don’t bite and would love to hear them!

MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

📱 $VZ Verizon ripped 5.81% after adding more wireless subscribers than expected and beating on earnings. Turns out people still want their phones to work. Wild business model.

💾 $SAP SAP, the German software giant, jumped 9.54% after beating second quarter earnings and easing fears that AI is going to eat its lunch. For now the market decided the robots are a customer, not a threat.

⚡ $TSLA Tesla slipped 2.08%, stretching out its losing streak as investors keep chewing on heavy AI spending plans and negative cash flow. The car company that doesn't want to be called a car company is finding out the market prices it like one anyway.

🚚 $CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide tumbled 9.25% after a Texas jury handed down $604 million in damages tied to a trucking accident. That's the kind of number that turns a logistics story into a legal one overnight.

🚀 $SPCX SpaceX fell 2.68% after another Starship test got pushed back and HSBC slapped a new Hold rating on the stock. The rocket that has to work for the whole thesis to hold up is once again waiting for a launch date.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Monday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 😏 5 Nasdaq Stocks Gaining Momentum This Summer (Ad)

2. 🇺🇲 Prediction markets now think he’ll be the President in 2028.

3. 👀 Michael Burry is bearish on this stock.

4. 🥚 Egg prices are soaring (again).

🍪 Munchy Memes

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