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BREAKING NEWS

📊 178,000 Jobs: Great Number, Wrong Month

On Friday, while markets were closed, the highly anticipated jobs report dropped. It came in hot.

Expectations were for 59,000 new jobs. The economy delivered 178,000. Triple the estimate. Unemployment fell to 4.3%.

Before you start celebrating though, check the fine print. Wages grew just 3.5% year-over-year, down from 3.8%. That's the slowest wage growth since May 2021. More people are working. But they’re not getting paid much more to do it.

Here’s a more detailed breakdown for the intellectually curious:

1. 📈 The Good: Healthcare led with 76,000 new jobs. Construction added 26,000. It’s the strongest print since December 2024.

2. 📉 The Bad: The healthcare numbers aren’t as healthy as they seem at face value. Most of those jobs are largely driven by strike-affected nurses returning to the payroll. And the new three-month average? Around 68,000 per month. That is not a hot labour market. That is a labor market doing the bare minimum. The federal government shed another 18,000 jobs. That is 355,000 gone since October 2024.

3. 🚨 The Ugly: This entire report was collected before the April 2 tariff announcement. None of that uncertainty is captured here. The real read arrives on May 8th.

Rate Cuts In 2026: Futures now show a 77.5% probability the Fed sits on its hands through the rest of 2026, which is a dramatic shift from what the market was expecting just a few months ago. And don’t forget, wages are also cooling and energy is not.

The Munch Take: 178,000 sounds like a win until you realize it’s mostly nurses returning from a strike and the underlying trend is only 68,000 a month. On top of that, the tariffs hit after the survey closed, making this report a relic already. Moving forward, May 8 is what actually matters and the market is becoming increasingly convinced that glorious rate cuts aren’t coming anytime soon to save us.

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WAR UPDATES

🚨 The Deadline That Won't Die: Trump Gives Iran Until Tuesday Night

If you missed the war drama over the weekend, buckle up. We're starting Monday with a bang.

Trump's "48-hour" ultimatum to Iran has now been extended four times. The latest version: Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET. After that, Trump told the Wall Street Journal that "if they don't do anything by Tuesday night, they won't have any power plants left, and no bridge will be left standing."

He wasn't subtle about it either. "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran." He signed the post "Praise be to Allah." Nobody knows what to do with that.

The Strait Is The Game: The whole standoff is about the Strait of Hormuz. Iran shut it down and Brent crude spot prices climbed 10% in 5 days to $111. It’s now the most expensive since the 2008 financial crisis. Iran's position? They'll reopen it. For a fee. And war reparations. So, no.

Meanwhile: Trump claims the U.S. is "in deep negotiations" and a deal is still possible. The mediators, however, are less optimistic. Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey tried all weekend. Nothing broke through.

The Munch Take: The market is pricing in either a last-minute miracle or an oil shock nobody is ready for. My wife asked me this morning why gas is so expensive. I told her it was complicated. She said she's buying a bike. Honestly, better trade than anything I've got on right now.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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