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📉 The Dollar's Worst Year Since the '90s
Pip Munch
December 29, 2025
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☕️ GM Munchers! I emerged from a turkey-induced blackout to write this. If the analysis seems off, blame the mashed potatoes still coursing through my veins.
On today’s menu:
📉 Silver Explodes & The Dollar’s 2025 Crash
🇨🇦 Canada's GDP Face-Plant
🌭 AMC Crashes & Costco Hot Dogs
😬 Is This Futures Prop Firm In Trouble?
📆 The Most Important Economic Events This Week
Friday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,929 | -0.03% |
Nasdaq | 23,593 | -0.08% |
Dow Jones | 48,710 | -0.04% |
Bitcoin | $87,500 | -0.30% |
BREAKING NEWS
🥈 Silver's 10% Friday Explosion
Silver exploded 10% on Friday alone—one of the largest single-day gains in modern history. It's now up 150-160% in 2025, making it the year's most insane trade while Bitcoin was busy having identity crises.
What happened? A perfect storm: tight physical supply, weak dollar, Fed rate-cut bets, and now rumors Trump might ban silver exports by January 1st.
Translation? Supply shock incoming.
The Munch Take: Silver shifted from "gold's boring cousin" to a leading performance asset. The gold-to-silver ratio compressed from 85:1 to ~60:1. If you believe the dollar keeps weakening and industrial demand stays strong (solar, EVs, electronics), silver's got room to run. But brace for volatility—this isn't a smooth ride.
💵 The Dollar's Worst Year Since the '90s
The USD Index cratered nearly 10% in 2025—its worst performance in decades. It’s all thanks to the perfect storm of Fed policy, tariff chaos, fiscal concerns, and investors fleeing US assets for Europe and other markets.
Why it matters: Weak dollar = gold and silver moon, imported goods get expensive, your international vacation just got pricier.
The Munch Take: Major banks expect more dollar weakness through 2026 as US rates converge with the rest of the world. For traders: watch USD/JPY (yen carry trade unwind) and keep playing precious metals until this trend breaks.
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FOREX
🇨🇦 Canada's GDP Face-Plant
My uncle gave me grief over Christmas for being "too hard on Canada." I get it—we've got maple syrup, free healthcare, and a national identity built on being polite.
Oh, and our booming economy.
Wait... scratch that.
The Numbers Don't Lie: Canada's GDP just dropped 0.3%—largest decline in three years. Meanwhile, we've donated more to Ukraine per capita than any other country. Nothing says "strong economy" quite like prioritizing foreign aid while your own GDP does a trust fall with nobody catching.
I also won’t mention that we haven't won a Stanley Cup since 1993…
The Weird Part: CAD Isn't Dying
Here's what doesn't make sense: Canada's economy is imploding, but USD/CAD is only hovering around 1.37. The loonie should be getting destroyed. Instead, it's just... sitting there like a confused hockey fan.
Why?
Two words: Fed cuts.
Markets are pricing aggressive 2026 Fed rate cuts, which weakens the USD against everything. All the bad Canadian news is already priced in. What matters now is whether the Fed panics and cuts rates.
The Trade:
If Fed cuts expectations rise → CAD could actually strengthen
If Fed stays stubborn → USD/CAD rips higher as reality disappoints
Bottom Line:
Watch the Fed, not Canada. USD/CAD isn't trading on Canadian fundamentals anymore—it's trading on Fed policy expectations. My uncle can stay mad, but the GDP numbers don't lie.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
📉 $ZSL – This fund lets you short silver, which on Friday was the financial equivalent of standing in front of a freight train. The fund crashed 18% in one day and is down 88% YTD. If you've been shorting silver all year, congratulations—you just turned $100,000 into $12,000 while the rest of us watched precious metals moon. Shorting is a dangerous game, and 2025 just taught an entire generation of traders why "the trend is your friend" isn't just a cliché.
🌭 $COST – Breaking news that will shake you to your core: There's now a 15% chance Costco raises the price of their sacred $1.50 hot dog in 2026, according to prediction markets on Kalshi. Is nothing sacred anymore? If Costco breaks the hot dog covenant, we're officially in uncharted societal territory. This is the true inflation indicator nobody's watching.
🍿 $AMC – AMC Entertainment just hit a new low, down 58% this year and trading at $1.69. For context, this stock hit $261/share during the 2021 meme stock mania. That means if you bought at the peak, you're down 99.4%. Not 50%. Not 75%. Ninety-nine point four percent. That's not an investment—that's a masterclass in buying tops and holding through the apocalypse. Brutal doesn't even begin to cover it.
🇺🇲 $DJT – Trump Media just bought $40 million in Bitcoin, which is either genius or desperation disguised as strategy. The stock's up 20% in the last month but still down 60% YTD. When being the literal President of the United States can't save your stock price, you know the market doesn't care about your title—only your balance sheet. At least the Bitcoin position might age better than the stock.
🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
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