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📉 Buffett's Last Day
Pip Munch
December 31, 2025
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On today’s menu:
📉 Buffett’s Last Day & Banks Are In Trouble
🏦 Fed Minutes: The Most Divided Rate Cut Since 2019
🎢 The Silver Rollercoaster Continues
😂 Nancy Pelosi Crushed The Market This Year
🇨🇦 Canada’s Mortgage Debt Is Bigger Than Its GDP
Yesterday’s numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,896 | -0.14% |
Nasdaq | 23,419 | -0.24% |
Dow Jones | 48,367 | -0.20% |
Bitcoin | $88,650 | +0.24% |
BREAKING NEWS
🙏 Buffett’s Last Day At Berkshire Hathaway
Tomorrow marks the end of capitalism's longest-running magic trick. Warren Buffett, age 95, officially steps down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO on December 31, 2025—closing a 60-year run that turned a failing textile mill into a $1 trillion economic fortress.
The Numbers That Break Your Brain:
From 1965 to 2024, Berkshire delivered 19.9% annual returns versus the S&P's 10.4%. In total return terms? 5,502,284% for Berkshire versus 39,054% for the S&P. That's not a typo—that's compounding on steroids.
Buffett's leaving his successor with a $382 billion cash pile (the largest in corporate history) and one hell of an act to follow. Greg Abel takes the reins January 1st, inheriting both a fortress and a problem: how do you deploy nearly $400 billion when everything's expensive?
Plot Twist: Todd Combs, one of Buffett's investment lieutenants, bailed in December to join JPMorgan. So much for the "triumvirate" succession plan everyone expected.
The Final Flex: In 2025, Berkshire paid $26.8 billion in corporate taxes—the largest single contribution by any company in U.S. history. Buffett's parting middle finger to anyone questioning corporate responsibility.
His last deal? A $9.7 billion acquisition of OxyChem in October—perfectly fitting for a guy who spent six decades buying unsexy businesses that print cash.
The Bottom Line: The greatest capital allocator in history is walking away. Markets are already pricing in a "succession discount," but the machine he built? That's engineered to outlast him.
Welcome to the Abel Era. No pressure.
💸 The Fed Just Printed $16B (And Nobody's Talking About It)
On December 29th, the Federal Reserve injected $16 billion into the banking system through overnight repos—banks basically pawned their Treasury bonds to the Fed for emergency cash.
Why this matters:
This isn't normal. Banks scrambling for cash during "calm times" means the system's tighter than your stops after a losing streak. Two reasons this is happening:
Year-End Window Dressing: Banks hoarding cash to look healthy for Dec 31 regulatory reports
QT Hangover: The Fed spent years pulling money OUT of the system to fight inflation. Now there's not enough cash floating around.
The Munch Take:
Short-term? Bullish. More liquidity = stocks and crypto get a boost. Long-term? This is a flashing yellow light. If banks need the Fed's help during "normal" times, what happens during actual stress? The Silicon Valley Bank crisis wasn't that long ago, and clearly the plumbing's still broken.
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BIG PICTURE
🏦 Fed Minutes: The Most Divided Rate Cut Since 2019
The Fed just released minutes showing their December rate cut (0.25% down to 3.5%-3.75%) was a knife-fight. The 9-3 vote was the most dissent since 2019, with several members admitting "the decision was finely balanced" and they almost voted to hold.
The split:
Some wanted cuts because employment's shaky
Others wanted to pause because inflation's sticky
Trump's tariffs are "boosting inflation" but they think it's temporary
The Munch Take:
A divided Fed is a dangerous Fed. When they can't agree, volatility follows. Markets hate uncertainty, and this screams "we have no idea what we're doing." Watch for chop through Q1 2026 as they figure it out.
MARKET OVERVIEW
🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers
$SILVER – Silver just performed the financial equivalent of a psychotic break. Down 8.7% Monday (worst day in 4 years), then rebounded 10% Tuesday, now sitting above $75/ounce like nothing happened. If you're trading this volatility, congratulations—you're either a masochist or have nerves made of titanium. Possibly both. This isn't investing; it's extreme sports with your brokerage account.
$SFTBY – SoftBank is dropping $40 billion into OpenAI because apparently Japanese financial companies now identify as AI venture capitalists. The market responded to this identity crisis by dumping the stock 2%. When your business strategy confuses literally everyone including your shareholders, that's generally not bullish.
$INTC – Nvidia just bought $5 billion of Intel stock, and the market celebrated like a proud parent watching their kid finally make a friend. Intel popped 2% on the news. The era of mega-cap tech companies just passing money between each other like a very expensive game of hot potato continues. At this point, these companies should just start their own currency and cut out the middleman.
$SBUX – Starbucks announced they're closing 400 US stores, which is corporate-speak for "our $8 lattes aren't hitting like they used to." The stock barely moved and is still down 7% YTD. When your entire business model is overpriced caffeine and mediocre WiFi, eventually people remember Folgers exists and costs 90% less.
$BMWYY – BMW is recalling 36,922 X3 SUVs over a steering software glitch, proving that even luxury cars aren't immune modern tech issues. The stock shrugged it off and remains up 20% YTD. Apparently investors have decided that occasional steering malfunctions are just part of the BMW ownership experience, right alongside turn signals nobody uses.
🚀 Pre-Market Fuel
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