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☕️ GM Munchers! The weather is getting nice and my buddies are asking if I can golf this weekend. My wife is also asking if I can re-stain the deck this weekend. The market is not the only thing I am trying to time correctly right now.

On today’s menu:

• 📉 ChatGPT Crashes The Entire Market

• 🛢️ The End of OPEC?

• ✅ Big Moves From Spotify, Starbucks & UPS

• 🥤 Warren Buffett Is Smiling Right Now

• ⏰ A Billionaire Thinks a Bond Crisis Is Coming

Yesterday’s numbers:

BREAKING NEWS

📉 ChatGPT Crashes The Entire Market

Yesterday was ugly. Every sector of the market flashed red and one company most people have never invested in is largely responsible for it.

OpenAI, the company that makes ChatGPT, admitted it missed its own revenue and user growth targets. That single piece of news sent shockwaves through every AI-related stock on the planet. The logic is simple. If ChatGPT is not growing fast enough to pay its own bills, then every company that built a $100 billion business case around AI demand suddenly looks shaky.

Here is the damage:

• 🔴 $NVDA dropped 3.32%, $AMD fell 4.27%, and $AVGO cratered 5.02% as chip stocks got hammered on fears that OpenAI's massive GPU contracts could be at risk.

• 🛢️ Oil pushed above $100 a barrel as Trump posted that Iran has declared itself in "a state of collapse" and wants the Hormuz Strait reopened immediately. Peace feels close. It has felt close before.

• 🤖 $ORCL dropped over 7% as the OpenAI revenue miss put its $300 billion cloud deal directly in the crosshairs. When your biggest customer says it might not be able to pay its bills, that is your problem now too.

The Iran news is genuinely significant and potentially bullish. A collapsing regime asking for an exit ramp is not nothing. But the market has been burned by ceasefire optimism enough times to stay skeptical until a deal is actually signed.

The Munch Take: Yesterday was a bad day built on one cracked foundation. If ChatGPT cannot grow fast enough to pay its own data center bills, the entire AI spending boom deserves a second look. Today is now the most important day of the year. $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, and $AMZN all report after the bell. The Fed decision lands at 2pm. GDP and inflation data hit Thursday morning. The market just spent yesterday getting nervous. Today is when we find out if it had a reason to be.

🛢️ 59 Years. Done. The UAE Just Walked Out Of OPEC.

OPEC is the club of countries that control most of the world's oil. They meet, they agree on how much oil to produce, and they set the price the rest of us pay at the pump. Think of it as the world's most powerful group chat. The UAE just left it.

The UAE was OPEC's third-largest oil producer behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. It has been a member for 59 years, joining in 1967. It will officially exit on May 1. The reason is simple. Iran, a fellow OPEC member, has been attacking the UAE with missiles and drones for months. You don’t stay in a club with a country bombing you.

Here is what this means in plain English:

• 🛢️ The UAE is no longer bound by OPEC production limits. It has the capacity to pump nearly 4.9 million barrels a day and now has the freedom to do exactly that. More oil supply should push prices down over time.

• 💸 Oil is already above $100 a barrel. Every extra dollar per barrel costs the average American family roughly $400 more per year in fuel and goods. This affects everything you buy.

• 📉 Companies like $XOM Exxon and $OXY Occidental both operate in the UAE through joint ventures and could directly benefit as the UAE ramps up production outside of OPEC quotas.

The Munch Take: Iran attacked its own OPEC ally with missiles for months and is somehow surprised the UAE packed its bags. The Iran war is not just a geopolitical story anymore. It is physically breaking apart the organization that controls the price of oil. That affects your gas bill, your grocery bill, and your portfolio. My wife asked why gas is so expensive right now. I started explaining the Strait of Hormuz. She went back outside to tan. Fair enough. The short answer is: war is expensive and we are all paying for it.

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MARKET OVERVIEW

🍿 Tasty Movers & Shakers

🤖 $GOOGL signed a classified AI deal with the Pentagon. From helping students cheat on essays to running classified government operations. Full circle. The glow-up is real.

☕️ $SBUX surged after posting global same-store sales growth of 6.2%, crushing Wall Street's forecast of 3.7%. The turnaround is working. The coffee still tastes like burnt ambition. But the stock is moving and that is what matters.

💊 $RVMD Revolution Medicines jumped 9.99% after its pancreatic cancer drug nearly doubled survival rates in a late-stage trial. FDA approval could come before year-end. This is the kind of biotech headline that actually matters. Lovely news.

🎵 $SPOT Spotify cratered 12.43% as soft Q2 guidance completely overshadowed a solid Q1 earnings beat. Great quarter. Terrible outlook. The market does not grade on a curve.

📦 $UPS slipped 3.97% despite beating earnings and reaffirming full-year guidance. The stock is down 49% over the last five years.

🛁 $BBBY Bed Bath and Beyond slid 11.24% even as losses narrowed and revenue growth returned. The turnaround is real but investors are not buying it yet. My wife has a soap addiction that borders on a clinical diagnosis. Her loyalty alone should be worth at least two points of same-store sales growth. The drop would have been worse without her.

STOCK OF THE DAY

🥤 Warren Buffett Is Sipping Cherry Coke And Smiling Right Now.

While the rest of the market melted down yesterday, $KO jumped almost 4% and reminded everyone why boring stocks exist.

Coca-Cola posted EPS of $0.86, beating estimates of $0.81. Revenue hit $12.47 billion against a forecast of $12.24 billion. Organic revenue grew 10%. Operating income jumped 19%. The company then raised its full-year earnings growth outlook to 8% to 9%, up from 7% to 8%. On a day when AI stocks were getting destroyed, Coke just kept selling sugar water to the entire planet.

Warren Buffett owns roughly 9.3% of the company. He has held it for decades. He drinks five Cokes a day. He is not a complicated man. He is a very rich one.

📈 The Bull Case:

• Coca-Cola Zero Sugar grew 13% globally. Every geographic segment posted volume growth. The product pipeline is actually working.

• Recession-proof business. People buy Coke in good times and bad. That is the whole thesis.

• Buffett sitting on 9.3% is not a small endorsement. That is a declaration of faith held for 35 years.

📉 The Bear Case:

• The stock trades at roughly 25 times earnings, a premium for a slow-growth beverage company. You are paying up for safety.

• Currency headwinds are real. Coke operates in every country on earth and a strong dollar eats into international profits.

• Consumer spending is shifting toward cheaper options. Premium pricing has a ceiling somewhere.

The Munch Take: On the most chaotic Tuesday of the year, Coca-Cola beat earnings, raised guidance, and went up almost 4%. The company sells the same drink it sold in 1886 and cannot be stopped. Buffett has been right about this stock for 35 years. My wife asked me why we don’t own it. I said if she cut down on her Coke Zero habit, we’d actually have some money to invest. She did not like that.

TRADING SUCCESS

🤑 Wednesday Motivation

🚀 Pre-Market Fuel

1. 👀 How to profit from the SpaceX IPO (Ad).

2. 😏 This IPO run is going to be insane.

3. ⏰ A billionaire thinks a bond crisis is coming.

4. 😬 The Bitcoin conference had a record low turnout.

5. 🇨🇳 China’s real estate market crashed to 2005 levels.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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