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The IPO pop already fizzled. The real trade hasn't started.

Dear Friend,

Here’s a number nobody’s bragging about.

$175.

That’s where the prediction markets said SPCX would open.

It opened at $150.

Even the largest IPO in history couldn’t live up to its own hype.

Why? Because by the time a company goes public, 95% of the profits are already gone.

The insiders bought at $20 billion. IPO buyers paid $1.77 trillion.

There was never 1,000% upside left in SPCX. The math doesn’t allow it.

But there is one place in Musk’s empire where the math still works.

A small, publicly traded company that builds the power infrastructure Colossus can’t run without. A $1.5 billion backlog. Still priced like Wall Street hasn’t noticed.

The last time Wall Street discovered an AI bottleneck stock — Vertiv — it ran 1,700%.

Dylan Jovine is giving away the name — free.

“The Buck Stops Here,”
Kelly Maguire
Behind the Markets

BREAKING NEWS

🚨 The Iran Peace Deal Is Already Starting To Fall Apart

The ink on the US-Iran peace deal barely dried before the first crack appeared. Planned talks in Switzerland between the US and Iran to work out the technical terms of their ceasefire have been postponed, with the Swiss Foreign Ministry confirming the Burgenstock meetings will not go ahead. No new date has been set.

Israel launched new air strikes in southern Lebanon overnight, killing at least 18 people and restarting fighting just days after the peace deal was signed. Iran responded by demanding guarantees the violence would stop before returning to negotiations, while JD Vance cancelled his Switzerland trip entirely.

Why Markets Should Care

This is not just a diplomatic headache. The entire post-deal rally in stocks and oil crash rested on one assumption: that the 60 day negotiation window would actually happen. The Strait of Hormuz is still reopening under the MOU, but Iran's national security council warned it’s watching US compliance closely and will not fulfil its own commitments if Washington evades its obligations.

Three things traders need to watch right now:
  • 🛢️ Oil prices, which dropped hard on the peace deal news, could bounce back fast if these talks fall apart entirely.

  • 🟡 Gold, already down sharply this week on peace optimism, has a reason to reverse if the geopolitical fear premium starts creeping back in.

  • ⏳ The US has until July 19 to fully lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports under the MOU, and Iran is expected to restore Hormuz traffic to pre-war levels over that same window. If talks stay frozen, both timelines get complicated.

The Munch Take: The US and Iran signed the agreement, markets celebrated, oil crashed, and everyone acted like the hard part was over. Then Israel launched new strikes in Lebanon and suddenly a deal between Washington and Tehran became hostage to fighting outside the room. That is how Middle East diplomacy works. Even when two countries agree to stop escalating, one country outside the deal can still light the whole thing back on fire. Things still look very fragile right now, and hopefully the situation cools down instead of escalating further.

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THE MARKET WATCH

🕶️ Snapchat Showcased It’s New $2,195 Glasses. Wall Street Is Not Impressed.

Snap ( $SNAP ( ▼ 1.69% ) ) unveiled its new Specs AR glasses this week and the market responded by dumping the stock. Hard. Shares fell sharply across two straight trading sessions following the launch and it’s all because CEO Evan Spiegel put the glasses on his face on stage. Yes, the glasses are indeed that ugly.

What Are These Things? 🤔 

The glasses are fully self-contained AR glasses that project digital images over the real world without needing a phone or external device. They run on dual Qualcomm Snapdragon processors, offer a 51-degree field of view, and will ship this fall starting in the US, UK, and France. Spiegel called them "a totally new type of computer." The internet called them enormous.

Social media compared the bulky frames to 3D cinema glasses and solar eclipse viewers, with plenty of mockery about whether anyone would actually wear these in public.

The AR glasses race is getting crowded fast and Snap priced itself into a tough spot:

  • 👓 Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses retail below $799 and command roughly 76% of global smart glasses shipments already.

  • 💸 Snap's Specs come in at $2,195. Nearly three times the price.

  • 🥽 Apple's Vision Pro headset sits at $3,499 at the top end of the market.

Activist investor Irenic Capital Management has called for Snap to spin off or shut down Specs entirely after the company spent more than $3.5 billion developing them. Snap has lost money every single year since going public, and the stock was already down 30% over the past year before this week's additional drop.

Spiegel argues the price is reasonable compared to a high-end laptop. Investors clearly disagree.

The Munch Take: Let’s be honest. These are absolutely awful. And the only thing worse is that Snap spent $3.5 billion building them only for the internet to compare them to eclipse glasses. The tech works may work but the vibe does not. Meta already owns this market at a third of the price, and looking cool matters a lot when the product literally sits on your face all day. My wife looked at the price tag and said for $2,195 those glasses better do my taxes. Fair point honestly.

🍪 Munchy Memes

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