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π The Market Is Done Pretending

Elonβs Secret Role in the Iran Conflict
Right now, as the conflict with Iran intensifies, there's one company quietly protecting every branch of the U.S. military.
Army. Navy. Air Force. Marines.
That company is Elon Musk's SpaceX.
But here's what most Americans don't realize⦠SpaceX isn't just a defense asset. It's about to become the biggest investment opportunity of the decade.
Elon is quietly planning to take SpaceX public β potentially just days from now β in what could be the largest IPO in stock market history. Elon himself has implied early investors could see 80X returns over the long term.
And you don't need to be an insider or accredited investor to get in. I've found a simple way for practically anyone to position themselves before this IPO hits β with as little as $100.
Sincerely,
Tim Bohen

βοΈ GM Munchers! My wife asked me what I do all day. I said I read financial news and identify market opportunities. She asked if that was why we still drive a 2014 Honda Civic.
On todayβs menu:
πͺ Four Weeks In: The Market Is Done Pretending
π The American Consumer Just Closed the Tab
π NVIDIA = Cheapest Valuation In a Decade
ποΈ This Week's Calendar Is A Minefield
π How To Profit From The Biggest IPO In History ($7)
Fridayβs numbers:
S&P 500 | 6,368 | -1.67% |
Nasdaq | 20,948 | -2.15% |
Dow Jones | 45,166 | -1.73% |
Bitcoin | $67,100 | -3.5% |
BREAKING NEWS
πͺ Four Weeks In: The Market Is Done Pretending
Wow. Friday was painful. The US/Iran conflict officially hit four weeks and the market is finally done pretending it's fine.
Friday was a bloodbath:
π₯ The S&P 500 posted its lowest close in 232 days, erasing another $1 trillion in market cap in a single session.
π©Έ Total losses since the war began: $4.8 trillion.
π The Dow officially entered correction territory, down 10% in under two months.
π’οΈ Oil is up 47.1% since the first shot was fired.
The Number The Index Hides: The headline is bad. What's underneath is worse. Yes, the S&P 500 is down 7% to 9% from its all-time highs. Sounds survivable. But the average stock inside the index has actually fallen 17%. The index is managing the optics. Your portfolio is not.
The Nasdaq Is a Crime Scene: The Nasdaq crossed the official 10% correction threshold on Friday. That's the headline version. Here's the real one: the average stock in the Nasdaq has quietly cratered 31% from its recent peak. Not 10. Thirty-one. The Magnificent Seven are bleeding out, and there is nothing magnificent about it.
The Munch Take: This isn't a dip. This is a war tax. If the average stock in the Nasdaq is down 31% and you're still checking prices every hour, you're not investing anymore. You're just torturing yourself. The move here is boring and correct: stop watching the daily number, stay diversified, and let the chaos sort itself out. Patient money always eats last. But it eats.

π The American Consumer Just Closed the Tab
The US consumer, after years of eating out at prices 30% higher than pre-pandemic, has finally put the fork down and gone home to make pasta.
Dominoβs is down 22% over the past year.
Wingstop is down 40% this year.
Chipotle is down 38%.
Shakeshack is down almost 8%.
This is not a sector rotation. This is a sector funeral.
Why It Hurts: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are eating into food traffic. Literally. SNAP cuts are shrinking lower-income spending. Beef supply is tightening, which means commodity costs go up right as restaurants lose pricing power. You can't raise the menu price when your customer is already eating at home.
π The Bull Case:
Valuations are depressed. These are real brands with moats.
Tax refund season could bring foot traffic back in Q2.
Comparisons get easier as 2026 progresses.
π The Bear Case:
30% cumulative inflation has permanently changed habits.
Middle-income consumers are now pulling back alongside lower-income ones.
GLP-1 adoption is structural, not cyclical.
What Buffett Would Actually Do: He already answered this in 2024. Berkshire bought 1.28 million shares of $DPZ worth $550 million. Not because pizza is fun. Because a 60-year delivery moat and a franchise model that prints cash through every recession is exactly his kind of boring.
The Munch Take: The American consumer didn't stop eating. They stopped paying $18 for a burrito bowl. My wife started meal prepping back in January. I told her it was a phase. She hasn't stopped. Chipotle is down 38% and our grocery bill is down $200 a month. She wins. Again.
The Department of War Needs Nickel. This $26M Company Just Raised Its Hand. (Ad)
Dear Investor,
Most early-stage mining companies talk about what they might do. SEAS just did something.
In January 2026, NOAA changed the rules for deep-sea mining permits, compressing the timeline significantly. SEAS launched its strategy five days later. They joined the Defence Industrial Base Consortium. They closed an oversubscribed $4.22M financing. And now they have submitted a formal bid to the Pentagon.
Each step built on the last. Financing enabled positioning. Positioning enabled the bid.
The Metals Company proved this playbook works. It went from concept to a $2.74 billion valuation with 450% appreciation in 2025. SEAS is sitting at a C$26 million market cap.
Significant risks remain. Regulatory uncertainty. Unproven commercial viability. Substantial capital still needed. This is not a guaranteed outcome.
But SEAS (OTCQB: DSEAF | CSE: SEAS) just transitioned from explorer to active defense bidder. That transition is often where early value gets created.
MARKET OVERVIEW
πΏ Tasty Movers & Shakers
π $NVDA Nvidia face-planted another 2.17% on Friday and is now sitting at its cheapest valuation in a decade. The company supposedly powering the entire AI revolution is on sale. Whether that's an opportunity or a falling knife is the question every trader is asking themselves right now.
π’ $CCL Carnival fell harder than my face when I step on the scale after a cruise. The stock dropped 4.31% despite posting strong earnings and record bookings. The problem is fuel. Carnival didn't hedge its oil costs and theyβre now paying for it.
π Bitcoin fell to a two-week low and dragged every crypto stock down with it. $COIN Coinbase cratered 7.06%. $MSTR Strategy dropped 5.21%. $HOOD Robinhood fell 6.15%. Brutal.
π $AZN AstraZeneca ripped 2.8% after its experimental lung disease drug hit targets in two late-stage clinical trials. Not a lot of green on the board yesterday. Britain's most valuable company found some. Take the wins where you can get them.
WEEKLY OUTLOOK
ποΈ This Week's Calendar Is A Minefield. Good Luck.

Last week broke portfolios. This week might break traders.
With the Nasdaq already in correction territory, we donβt have a calendar this week. We have a series of traps. Here's what institutional desks are quietly panicking about:
Powell Opens His Mouth (Monday): Jerome Powell speaks publicly and every algorithm on Wall Street will be listening. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked violently last week. Rate cuts are already being priced out. If Powell even hints that the Middle East energy shock keeps inflation hot for longer, tech stocks get hit again. Immediately.
The Supply Chain Reality Check (Wednesday): ISM Manufacturing PMI drops and Wall Street only cares about one thing. Are factories already passing $100 oil costs directly onto consumers? My wifeβs IKEA bill already suggests yes.
The Closed Market Jobs Bomb (Friday): The March NFP report lands on Good Friday. The market is closed. The data is still coming. Hot number or cold number, you cannot touch anything until Monday morning meaning traders will spend the entire Easter weekend doing mental math they cannot act on. Good Friday is doing a lot of heavy lifting with that name this year.
The Munch Take: A jobs report dropping into a closed market is the economic equivalent of getting a tax bill on Christmas morning. You can't do anything except swallow the pain and pretend to enjoy spending the day at your in-laws.
π Pre-Market Fuel
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